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Pontardawe Town - Caerau (Ely)

FAW Championship February 27, 2027 15:00
Pontardawe Town
#15 · 6 pts
vs
Caerau (Ely)
#4 · 16 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
31.67%
Win
Pontardawe Town
29.88%
Draw
38.45%
Win
Caerau (Ely)
1.2
Expected xG
1.68

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (9.66%)
1X2 Result
1 32%
X 30%
2 38%
Double Chance
1X 62%
X2 68%
12 70%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 58%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Caerau (Ely) a 38% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Pontardawe Town. Expected goals are 1.2 for Pontardawe Town and 1.7 for Caerau (Ely) (total 2.9), with a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 9.66% probability.

Season Stats

Pontardawe Town
2W 0D 5L
Caerau (Ely)
9W 3D 3L
Averages per game
1.6
Goals
2.3
2.0
Conceded
1.3
Percentages
71%
O 1.5
87%
71%
O 2.5
67%
29%
BTTS
53%
14%
Clean Sht
47%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in FAW Championship. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
74%
O 3.5
47%
BTTS
Pontardawe Town
2W 0D 1L · at home
Caerau (Ely)
6W 1D 3L · away
3.0
gls/g
2.9
1.7
Conceded
1.5
67%
Win %
60%
67%
Win or Draw
70%
100%
O 1.5
90%
100%
O 2.5
90%
67%
O 3.5
80%
33%
BTTS
60%
33%
Clean Sht
30%
33%
Failed to Score
20%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Pontardawe Town Caerau (Ely) →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.6% 9.5% 7.9% 4.4% 1.9% 0.6%
1 6.7% 11.3% 9.5% 5.3% 2.2% 0.8%
2 4.0% 6.8% 5.7% 3.2% 1.3% 0.4%
3 1.6% 2.7% 2.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
4 0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Pontardawe Town Pontardawe Town
W Treowen Stars 6–1
L Swansea University 4–0
L Aberystwyth Town 1–0
L Afan Lido 1–0
L Newport City 0–4
Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely)
W Afan Lido 2–0
W Cardiff Draconians 1–3
W llanelli AFC 3–0
W Treowen Stars 3–2
L Baglan Dragons 3–1

Playing profile

Pontardawe Town Pontardawe Town
Attack
33
Defence
50
Form
39
Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely)
Attack
60
Defence
49
Form
58
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

South

# Team G Pts
1 Swansea University Swansea University 7 17
2 Aberystwyth Town Aberystwyth Town 7 16
3 Pontypridd Town Pontypridd Town 7 16
4 Caerau (Ely) Caerau (Ely) 9 16
5 Baglan Dragons Baglan Dragons 10 16
6 Carmarthen Town Carmarthen Town 9 14
7 Treowen Stars Treowen Stars 8 13
8 Afan Lido Afan Lido 10 11
9 Trethomas Bluebirds Trethomas Bluebirds 8 10
10 Ynyshir Albions Ynyshir Albions 7 10
11 Caerphilly Athletic Caerphilly Athletic 8 8
12 Newport City Newport City 6 7
13 Cardiff Draconians Cardiff Draconians 6 7
14 Llantwit Major Llantwit Major 7 7
15 Pontardawe Town Pontardawe Town 7 6
16 llanelli AFC llanelli AFC 10 2

What's at stake · South

Top 2 advance to the next round

Pontardawe Town Caerau (Ely)
Current #15 #4
→ Pontardawe Town #11 #4
→ Draw #14 #2
→ Caerau (Ely) #15 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Pontardawe Town vs Caerau (Ely)?
The model gives Pontardawe Town a 31% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 38% for an Caerau (Ely) win.
How many goals are expected in Pontardawe Town vs Caerau (Ely)?
Expected goals: Pontardawe Town 1.2, Caerau (Ely) 1.7 (total 2.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 76%.
What is the most likely score in Pontardawe Town vs Caerau (Ely)?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.66%.