Pontypridd Town - Llantwit Major
FAW Championship
October 06, 2026 20:30
⚡ Pre-match analysis
49.62%
Win
Pontypridd Town
25.69%
Draw
24.69%
Win
Llantwit Major
3.14
0.42
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
2–1
(9.33%)
1X2 Result
1
50%
X
26%
2
25%
Double Chance
1X
75%
X2
50%
12
74%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Pontypridd Town a 49% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 24% for Llantwit Major. Expected goals are 3.1 for Pontypridd Town and 0.4 for Llantwit Major (total 3.6), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 9.33% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Pontypridd Town have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Llantwit Major.
Season Stats
7W
4D
4L
4W
2D
9L
Averages per game
2.1
Goals
1.5
1.9
Conceded
2.5
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
87%
73%
O 2.5
80%
67%
BTTS
67%
20%
Clean Sht
7%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in FAW Championship. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
50%
O 3.5
55%
BTTS
4W
1D
5L
· at home
3W
3D
4L
· away
1.0
gls/g
1.7
1.5
Conceded
2.3
40%
Win %
30%
50%
Win or Draw
60%
70%
O 1.5
100%
50%
O 2.5
80%
30%
O 3.5
70%
30%
BTTS
80%
30%
Clean Sht
10%
50%
Failed to Score
10%
last 10
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Pontypridd Town
Llantwit Major →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | — | — | — |
| 1 | 9.0% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 2 | 14.1% | 5.9% | 1.2% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 3 | 14.7% | 6.1% | 1.3% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 4 | 11.6% | 4.8% | 1.0% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 5 | 7.3% | 3.0% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Pontypridd Town
Attack
60
Defence
57
Form
62
Llantwit Major
Attack
14
Defence
23
Form
20
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
South
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Swansea University
|
6 | 16 |
| 2 |
Aberystwyth Town
|
6 | 15 |
| 3 |
Treowen Stars
|
7 | 13 |
| 4 |
Pontypridd Town
|
6 | 13 |
| 5 |
Baglan Dragons
|
8 | 13 |
| 6 |
Carmarthen Town
|
7 | 11 |
| 7 |
Caerau (Ely)
|
7 | 10 |
| 8 |
Afan Lido
|
8 | 10 |
| 9 |
Trethomas Bluebirds
|
7 | 9 |
| 10 |
Ynyshir Albions
|
6 | 9 |
| 11 |
Caerphilly Athletic
|
7 | 8 |
| 12 |
Cardiff Draconians
|
5 | 7 |
| 13 |
Newport City
|
5 | 6 |
| 14 |
Pontardawe Town
|
6 | 3 |
| 15 |
llanelli AFC
|
8 | 2 |
| 16 |
Llantwit Major
|
5 | 1 |
What's at stake · South
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #4 | #16 |
| → Pontypridd Town | #2 | #16 |
| → Draw | #3 | #15 |
| → Llantwit Major | #4 | #14 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major?
The model gives Pontypridd Town a 49% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 24% for an Llantwit Major win.
How many goals are expected in Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major?
Expected goals: Pontypridd Town 3.1, Llantwit Major 0.4 (total 3.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Pontypridd Town vs Llantwit Major?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 9.33%.