✓Model correct — prediction Portugal
C. Ronaldo
68'
(pen.)
G. Ramos
(ast. R. Leao)
90'+4
53'
I. Perisic
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Portugal a 63% win probability (draw 23%, Croatia 12%). The final result was Portugal 2–1 Croatia. In 2 previous meetings, Portugal have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Croatia.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
11
3
Shots on target
6
2.18
Actual xG
1.34
5
Saves
2
61%
Possession
39%
9
Corners
5
19
Tackles
23
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
R. Dias
17'
46'
I. Matanovic
/
A. Budimir
53'
I. Perisic⚽
59'
L. Modric
61'
Vitinha
/ B. Silva
62'
P. Neto
/ F. Conceicao
63'
B. Fernandes
/ N. Semedo
63'
J. Cancelo
/ G. Ramos
63'
⚽C. Ronaldo
(pen.)
68'
68'
M. Pasalic
/
M. Baturina
81'
C. Ronaldo
/ R. Neves
81'
90'+2
J. Gvardiol
/
N. Vlasic
⚽G. Ramos
· ast. R. Leao
90'+4
90'+6
A. Kramaric
/
M. Kovacic
90'+8
I. Perisic
90'+13
Pre-match prediction
63.76%
Portugal ←
23.59%
X
12.65%
Croatia
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Portugal)
63.76%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.10
2.18
+0.08
0.68
1.34
+0.66
Portugal dominated by xG (2.18 vs 1.34).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Diogo Costa
G
Diogo Costa
G
25
Nuno Mendes
D
Nuno Mendes
D
13
Renato Veiga
D
Renato Veiga
D
3
Rúben Dias
D
Rúben Dias
D
20
João Cancelo
63'
D
João Cancelo
63'
D
23
Vitinha
62'
M
Vitinha
62'
M
15
João Neves
M
João Neves
M
17
Rafael Leão
1 👟
M
Rafael Leão
1 👟
M
8
Bruno Fernandes
63'
M
Bruno Fernandes
63'
M
18
Pedro Neto
63'
M
Pedro Neto
63'
M
7
Cristiano Ronaldo
1 ⚽
81'
F
Cristiano Ronaldo
1 ⚽
81'
F
Bench
10
Bernardo Silva
28'
M
Bernardo Silva
28'
M
5
Diogo Dalot
D
Diogo Dalot
D
26
Francisco Conceição
27'
F
Francisco Conceição
27'
F
19
Gonçalo Guedes
F
Gonçalo Guedes
F
14
Gonçalo Inácio
D
Gonçalo Inácio
D
9
Gonçalo Ramos
1 ⚽
27'
F
Gonçalo Ramos
1 ⚽
27'
F
11
João Félix
F
João Félix
F
12
José Sá
G
José Sá
G
6
Matheus Nunes
M
Matheus Nunes
M
2
Nélson Semedo
27'
D
Nélson Semedo
27'
D
21
Rúben Neves
9'
M
Rúben Neves
9'
M
22
Rui Silva
G
Rui Silva
G
24
Samú Costa
M
Samú Costa
M
4
Tomás Araújo
D
Tomás Araújo
D
16
Trincão
F
Trincão
F
1
D. Livaković
G
D. Livaković
G
14
I. Perišić
1 ⚽
D
I. Perišić
1 ⚽
D
3
Marin Pongračić
D
Marin Pongračić
D
6
J. Šutalo
D
J. Šutalo
D
2
J. Stanišić
D
J. Stanišić
D
8
M. Kovačić
89'
M
M. Kovačić
89'
M
10
L. Modrić
M
L. Modrić
M
16
M. Baturina
68'
M
M. Baturina
68'
M
17
P. Sučić
M
P. Sučić
M
13
N. Vlašić
89'
M
N. Vlašić
89'
M
11
A. Budimir
45'
F
A. Budimir
45'
F
Bench
9
A. Kramarić
13'
F
A. Kramarić
13'
F
23
D. Kotarski
G
D. Kotarski
G
5
Duje Ćaleta-Car
D
Duje Ćaleta-Car
D
20
I. Matanović
45'
F
I. Matanović
45'
F
12
I. Pandur
G
I. Pandur
G
4
J. Gvardiol
17'
D
J. Gvardiol
17'
D
18
K. Jakić
M
K. Jakić
M
21
L. Sučić
M
L. Sučić
M
22
L. Vušković
D
L. Vušković
D
24
Marco Pasalic
F
Marco Pasalic
F
15
Mario Pasalic
22'
M
Mario Pasalic
22'
M
25
M. Erlić
D
M. Erlić
D
7
N. Moro
M
N. Moro
M
26
P. Musa
F
P. Musa
F
19
T. Fruk
M
T. Fruk
M
Best on the pitch
Gonçalo Ramos
F · Portugal
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 11 pass
I. Perišić
D · Croatia
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 25 pass
Diogo Costa
G · Portugal
7.70
· 13 pass
Nuno Mendes
D · Portugal
7.70
· 60 pass
Rúben Dias
D · Portugal
7.50
· 94 pass
M. Kovačić
M · Croatia
7.20
3 shots
· 52 pass
Portugal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Costa | G | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Nuno Mendes | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 60 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| Renato Veiga | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 67 | 65% | — | — | — |
| Rúben Dias | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 94 | 86% | 3 | 1 | — |
| João Cancelo | D | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 27% | 4 | — | — |
| Vitinha | M | 62 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 75 | 70% | 2 | — | — |
| João Neves | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 47% | 5 | — | — |
| Rafael Leão | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | 1 | 2 | 52 | 47% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Fernandes | M | 63 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Neto | M | 63 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 28 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | F | 81 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 22 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 28 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Francisco Conceição | F | 27 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Gonçalo Ramos | F | 27 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Nélson Semedo | D | 27 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Rúben Neves | M | 9 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
Croatia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Livaković | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 27 | 26% | — | — | — |
| I. Perišić | D | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 25 | 22% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Marin Pongračić | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 58 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Šutalo | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 34 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Stanišić | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Kovačić | M | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 52 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| L. Modrić | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 52 | 45% | 3 | 1 | — |
| M. Baturina | M | 68 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| P. Sučić | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| N. Vlašić | M | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | 7 | — | — |
| A. Budimir | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| A. Kramarić | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| I. Matanović | F | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Gvardiol | D | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Mario Pasalic | M | 22 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Portugal vs Croatia?
The final score was Portugal 2–1 Croatia.
What did the model predict before Portugal vs Croatia?
The model assigned 63% probability to a Portugal win, 23% to a draw, and 12% to an Croatia win.