✓Model correct — prediction Portugal
C. Ronaldo
68'
(pen.)
G. Ramos
(ast. R. Leao)
90'+4
53'
I. Perisic
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Portugal a 63% win probability (draw 23%, Croatia 12%). The final result was Portugal 2–1 Croatia. In 2 previous meetings, Portugal have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Croatia.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
11
3
Shots on target
6
2.18
Actual xG
1.34
5
Saves
2
61%
Possession
39%
9
Corners
5
19
Tackles
23
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
R. Dias
17'
46'
I. Matanovic
/
A. Budimir
53'
I. Perisic⚽
59'
L. Modric
61'
Vitinha
/ B. Silva
62'
P. Neto
/ F. Conceicao
63'
B. Fernandes
/ N. Semedo
63'
J. Cancelo
/ G. Ramos
63'
⚽C. Ronaldo
(pen.)
68'
68'
M. Pasalic
/
M. Baturina
81'
C. Ronaldo
/ R. Neves
81'
90'+2
J. Gvardiol
/
N. Vlasic
⚽G. Ramos
· ast. R. Leao
90'+4
90'+6
A. Kramaric
/
M. Kovacic
90'+8
I. Perisic
90'+13
Pre-match prediction
63.76%
Portugal ←
23.59%
X
12.65%
Croatia
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Portugal)
63.76%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.10
2.18
+0.08
0.68
1.34
+0.66
Portugal dominated by xG (2.18 vs 1.34).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Diogo Costa
G
Diogo Costa
G
25
Nuno Mendes
D
Nuno Mendes
D
13
Renato Veiga
D
Renato Veiga
D
3
Rúben Dias
D
Rúben Dias
D
20
João Cancelo
63'
D
João Cancelo
63'
D
23
Vitinha
62'
M
Vitinha
62'
M
15
João Neves
M
João Neves
M
17
Rafael Leão
1 👟
M
Rafael Leão
1 👟
M
8
Bruno Fernandes
63'
M
Bruno Fernandes
63'
M
18
Pedro Neto
63'
M
Pedro Neto
63'
M
7
Cristiano Ronaldo
1 ⚽
81'
F
Cristiano Ronaldo
1 ⚽
81'
F
Bench
10
Bernardo Silva
28'
M
Bernardo Silva
28'
M
5
Diogo Dalot
D
Diogo Dalot
D
26
Francisco Conceição
27'
F
Francisco Conceição
27'
F
16
Francisco Trincão
F
Francisco Trincão
F
19
Gonçalo Guedes
F
Gonçalo Guedes
F
14
Gonçalo Inácio
D
Gonçalo Inácio
D
9
Gonçalo Ramos
1 ⚽
27'
F
Gonçalo Ramos
1 ⚽
27'
F
11
João Félix
F
João Félix
F
12
José Sá
G
José Sá
G
6
Matheus Nunes
M
Matheus Nunes
M
2
Nélson Semedo
27'
D
Nélson Semedo
27'
D
21
Rúben Neves
9'
M
Rúben Neves
9'
M
22
Rui Silva
G
Rui Silva
G
24
Samú Costa
M
Samú Costa
M
4
Tomás Araújo
D
Tomás Araújo
D
1
Dominik Livaković
G
Dominik Livaković
G
14
I. Perišić
1 ⚽
D
I. Perišić
1 ⚽
D
3
M. Pongračić
D
M. Pongračić
D
6
Josip Šutalo
D
Josip Šutalo
D
2
Josip Stanišić
D
Josip Stanišić
D
8
Mateo Kovačić
89'
M
Mateo Kovačić
89'
M
10
Luka Modrić
M
Luka Modrić
M
16
M. Baturina
68'
M
M. Baturina
68'
M
17
P. Sučić
M
P. Sučić
M
13
N. Vlašić
89'
M
N. Vlašić
89'
M
11
Ante Budimir
45'
F
Ante Budimir
45'
F
Bench
9
A. Kramarić
13'
F
A. Kramarić
13'
F
5
D. Ćaleta-Car
D
D. Ćaleta-Car
D
23
Dominik Kotarski
G
Dominik Kotarski
G
20
Igor Matanović
45'
F
Igor Matanović
45'
F
12
Ivor Pandur
G
Ivor Pandur
G
4
Joško Gvardiol
17'
D
Joško Gvardiol
17'
D
18
Kristijan Jakić
M
Kristijan Jakić
M
21
L. Sučić
M
L. Sučić
M
22
Luka Vušković
D
Luka Vušković
D
24
Marco Pašalić
F
Marco Pašalić
F
25
Martin Erlić
D
Martin Erlić
D
15
M. Pašalić
22'
M
M. Pašalić
22'
M
7
N. Moro
M
N. Moro
M
26
Petar Musa
F
Petar Musa
F
19
Toni Fruk
M
Best on the pitch
Gonçalo Ramos
F · Portugal
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 11 pass
I. Perišić
D · Croatia
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 25 pass
Diogo Costa
G · Portugal
7.70
· 13 pass
Nuno Mendes
D · Portugal
7.70
· 60 pass
Rúben Dias
D · Portugal
7.50
· 94 pass
Mateo Kovačić
M · Croatia
7.20
3 shots
· 52 pass
Portugal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Costa | G | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Nuno Mendes | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 60 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| Renato Veiga | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 67 | 65% | — | — | — |
| Rúben Dias | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 94 | 86% | 3 | 1 | — |
| João Cancelo | D | 63 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 27% | 4 | — | — |
| Vitinha | M | 62 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 75 | 70% | 2 | — | — |
| João Neves | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 47% | 5 | — | — |
| Rafael Leão | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | 1 | 2 | 52 | 47% | — | — | — |
| Bruno Fernandes | M | 63 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Neto | M | 63 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 28 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | F | 81 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 22 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 28 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Francisco Conceição | F | 27 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
| Gonçalo Ramos | F | 27 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Nélson Semedo | D | 27 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Rúben Neves | M | 9 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
Croatia — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominik Livaković | G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 27 | 26% | — | — | — |
| I. Perišić | D | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 25 | 22% | 3 | 1 | — |
| M. Pongračić | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 58 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| Josip Šutalo | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 34 | 27% | 2 | — | — |
| Josip Stanišić | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Mateo Kovačić | M | 89 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 52 | 49% | 1 | — | — |
| Luka Modrić | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 52 | 45% | 3 | 1 | — |
| M. Baturina | M | 68 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 14 | 12% | — | — | — |
| P. Sučić | M | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 39 | 31% | 3 | — | — |
| N. Vlašić | M | 89 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 11% | 7 | — | — |
| Ante Budimir | F | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| A. Kramarić | F | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Igor Matanović | F | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 2 | 6 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| Joško Gvardiol | D | 17 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| M. Pašalić | M | 22 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Portugal vs Croatia?
The final score was Portugal 2–1 Croatia.
What did the model predict before Portugal vs Croatia?
The model assigned 63% probability to a Portugal win, 23% to a draw, and 12% to an Croatia win.