Portugal - Croatia
Weather at kick-off
☀️
Clear sky
26.8°C
💨 9 km/h
· Kuwait
⚡ Pre-match analysis
64.53%
Win
Portugal
22.79%
Draw
12.68%
Win
Croatia
2.13
0.67
Expected xG
Most likely result
2–0
(13.8%)
2+ goals
78%
3+ goals
53%
Model prediction
Portugal
64.53%
Probability
82.6%
1X2 accuracy · 23 predictions (3 months)
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Portugal a 64% win probability, against 22% for a draw and 12% for Croatia. Expected goals are 2.1 for Portugal and 0.7 for Croatia (total 2.8), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–0 at 13.8% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Portugal have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Croatia.
Season Stats
1W
2D
0L
2W
0D
1L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
1.7
0.3
Conceded
1.7
4.0
Shots OT
3.3
3.0
Corners
1.7
62%
Poss.
55%
Percentages
67%
O 1.5
67%
33%
O 2.5
67%
33%
BTTS
67%
67%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ
Based on the last 3 matches in World Cup. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
75%
O 1.5
50%
O 2.5
50%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
1W
1D
0L
· at home
1W
0D
1L
· away
3.0
gls/g
1.5
0.5
Conceded
2.0
50%
Win %
50%
100%
Win or Draw
50%
100%
O 1.5
50%
50%
O 2.5
50%
50%
O 3.5
50%
50%
BTTS
50%
50%
Clean Sht
50%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 2
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Portugal
Croatia →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 0.3% | 0.1% | — |
| 1 | 13.0% | 8.7% | 2.9% | 0.6% | 0.1% | — |
| 2 | 13.8% | 9.2% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 9.8% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 4 | 5.2% | 3.5% | 1.2% | 0.3% | — | — |
| 5 | 2.2% | 1.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Portugal
Attack
45
Defence
78
Form
59
Croatia
Attack
29
Defence
61
Form
46
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
Group K
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Colombia
|
3 | 7 |
| 2 |
Portugal
|
3 | 5 |
| 3 |
Congo DR
|
3 | 4 |
| 4 |
Uzbekistan
|
3 | 0 |
What's at stake · Group K
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #2 | #1 |
| → Portugal | #1 | #1 |
| → Draw | #2 | #1 |
| → Croatia | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Portugal vs Croatia?
The model gives Portugal a 64% win probability, 22% for a draw, and 12% for an Croatia win.
How many goals are expected in Portugal vs Croatia?
Expected goals: Portugal 2.1, Croatia 0.7 (total 2.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in Portugal vs Croatia?
2–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.8%.