90'+1
(ast. F. Torres)
M. Merino
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Spain a 41% win probability (draw 29%, Portugal 29%). The final result was Portugal 0–1 Spain. In 1 previous meetings, Portugal have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Spain.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
12
2
Shots on target
6
0.58
Actual xG
1.77
5
Saves
2
45%
Possession
55%
3
Corners
7
14
Tackles
19
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
N. Mendes
/ N. Semedo
56'
Joao Felix
/ R. Leao
71'
J. Cancelo
/ D. Dalot
71'
75'
F. Torres
/
A. Baena
P. Neto
/ F. Conceicao
83'
Vitinha
/ B. Silva
83'
85'
F. Ruiz
/
Pedri
85'
M. Merino
/
D. Olmo
B. Silva
89'
90'+1
ast. F. Torres ·
M. Merino⚽
R. Veiga
90'+4
90'+7
B. Iglesias
/
M. Oyarzabal
90'+8
F. Torres
Pre-match prediction
29.81%
Portugal
29.19%
X
41.01%
Spain ←
we assigned to the actual result (Spain)
41.01%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.28
0.58
-0.7
1.55
1.77
+0.22
Spain dominated by xG (1.77 vs 0.58).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Diogo Costa
G
Diogo Costa
G
25
Nuno Mendes
56'
D
Nuno Mendes
56'
D
13
Renato Veiga
D
Renato Veiga
D
3
Rúben Dias
D
Rúben Dias
D
20
João Cancelo
71'
D
João Cancelo
71'
D
15
João Neves
M
João Neves
M
23
Vitinha
83'
M
Vitinha
83'
M
11
João Félix
71'
M
João Félix
71'
M
8
Bruno Fernandes
M
Bruno Fernandes
M
18
Pedro Neto
83'
M
Pedro Neto
83'
M
7
Cristiano Ronaldo
F
Cristiano Ronaldo
F
Bench
10
Bernardo Silva
16'
M
Bernardo Silva
16'
M
5
Diogo Dalot
19'
D
Diogo Dalot
19'
D
26
Francisco Conceição
16'
F
Francisco Conceição
16'
F
16
Francisco Trincão
F
Francisco Trincão
F
19
Gonçalo Guedes
F
Gonçalo Guedes
F
14
Gonçalo Inácio
D
Gonçalo Inácio
D
9
Gonçalo Ramos
F
Gonçalo Ramos
F
12
José Sá
G
José Sá
G
6
Matheus Nunes
M
Matheus Nunes
M
2
Nélson Semedo
34'
D
Nélson Semedo
34'
D
17
Rafael Leão
19'
F
Rafael Leão
19'
F
21
Rúben Neves
M
Rúben Neves
M
22
Rui Silva
G
Rui Silva
G
24
Samú Costa
M
Samú Costa
M
4
Tomás Araújo
D
23
Unai Simón
G
Unai Simón
G
24
Marc Cucurella
D
Marc Cucurella
D
14
Aymeric Laporte
D
Aymeric Laporte
D
22
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
D
Pau Cubarsí Paredes
D
12
Pedro Porro
D
Pedro Porro
D
20
Pedri
85'
M
Pedri
85'
M
16
Rodri
M
Rodri
M
15
Álex Baena
75'
M
Álex Baena
75'
M
10
Dani Olmo
85'
M
Dani Olmo
85'
M
19
Lamine Yamal
M
Lamine Yamal
M
21
Mikel Oyarzabal
89'
F
Mikel Oyarzabal
89'
F
Bench
3
Álex Grimaldo
D
Álex Grimaldo
D
26
Borja Iglesias
1'
F
Borja Iglesias
1'
F
1
David Raya
G
David Raya
G
4
Eric García
D
Eric García
D
8
Fabián Ruiz
14'
M
Fabián Ruiz
14'
M
7
Ferran Torres
1 👟
15'
F
Ferran Torres
1 👟
15'
F
9
Gavi
M
Gavi
M
13
Joan García
G
Joan García
G
5
Marcos Llorente
M
Marcos Llorente
M
2
Marc Pubill
D
Marc Pubill
D
18
Martín Zubimendi
M
Martín Zubimendi
M
6
Mikel Merino
1 ⚽
14'
M
Mikel Merino
1 ⚽
14'
M
17
Nico Williams
F
Nico Williams
F
25
Víctor Muñoz
F
Víctor Muñoz
F
11
Yeremy Pino
M
Yeremy Pino
M
Best on the pitch
Mikel Merino
M · Spain
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 4 pass
Lamine Yamal
M · Spain
7.30
2 shots
· 32 pass
Rodri
M · Spain
7.30
1 shots
· 93 pass
Unai Simón
G · Spain
7.30
· 31 pass
Diogo Costa
G · Portugal
7.30
· 28 pass
João Neves
M · Portugal
7.20
1 shots
· 35 pass
Portugal — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Costa | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 28 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Nuno Mendes | D | 56 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 23% | 4 | — | — |
| Renato Veiga | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 60 | 54% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Rúben Dias | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 50 | 42% | — | — | — |
| João Cancelo | D | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| João Neves | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 34% | 4 | — | — |
| Vitinha | M | 83 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 45 | 40% | — | — | — |
| João Félix | M | 71 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 20 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Bruno Fernandes | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 51 | 40% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Neto | M | 83 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 27 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | F | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 12 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 16 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 10% | — | 1 | — |
| Diogo Dalot | D | 19 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| Francisco Conceição | F | 16 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Nélson Semedo | D | 34 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 10% | — | — | — |
| Rafael Leão | F | 19 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 9 | 5% | — | — | — |
Spain — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unai Simón | G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 38 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Aymeric Laporte | D | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 41 | 37% | — | — | — |
| Pau Cubarsí Paredes | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 77 | 71% | — | — | — |
| Pedro Porro | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 33% | 4 | — | — |
| Pedri | M | 85 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 59 | 55% | 1 | — | — |
| Rodri | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 93 | 87% | 4 | — | — |
| Álex Baena | M | 75 | 6.90 | — | — | 3 | 36 | 28% | 4 | — | — |
| Dani Olmo | M | 85 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 41 | 35% | 1 | — | — |
| Lamine Yamal | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 32 | 25% | 5 | — | — |
| Mikel Oyarzabal | F | 89 | 6.00 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Borja Iglesias | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabián Ruiz | M | 14 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 7 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Ferran Torres | F | 15 | 6.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 13 | 9% | — | 1 | — |
| Mikel Merino | M | 14 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Portugal vs Spain?
The final score was Portugal 0–1 Spain.
What did the model predict before Portugal vs Spain?
The model assigned 29% probability to a Portugal win, 29% to a draw, and 41% to an Spain win.