Portugal - Wales
Weather at kick-off
🌤️
Mainly clear
26.2°C
💨 17 km/h
🌧️ 74%
· Niigata
⚡ Pre-match analysis
70.34%
Win
Portugal
13.74%
Draw
15.92%
Win
Wales
3.41
1.56
Expected xG
Most likely outcome
Portugal
70.34%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)
Market probabilities
Most likely result
3–1
(7.33%)
1X2 Result
1
70%
X
14%
2
16%
Double Chance
1X
84%
X2
30%
12
86%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
93%
Over 2.5
85%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Portugal a 70% win probability, against 13% for a draw and 15% for Wales. Expected goals are 3.4 for Portugal and 1.6 for Wales (total 5.0), with a 92% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 3–1 at 7.33% probability.
Season Stats
6W
3D
1L
3W
3D
0L
Averages per game
2.2
Goals
1.5
1.1
Conceded
0.7
5.4
Shots OT
4.3
6.4
Corners
4.7
57%
Poss.
57%
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
50%
70%
O 2.5
50%
80%
BTTS
50%
10%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ
Based on the last 10 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
47%
O 3.5
84%
BTTS
4W
1D
0L
· at home
1W
2D
0L
· away
3.2
gls/g
1.3
1.4
Conceded
1.0
80%
Win %
33%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
100%
O 1.5
67%
100%
O 2.5
67%
60%
O 3.5
33%
100%
BTTS
67%
0%
Clean Sht
33%
0%
Failed to Score
33%
last 5
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Portugal
Wales →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0.7% | 1.1% | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 2.4% | 3.7% | 2.9% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 4.0% | 6.3% | 4.9% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 3 | 4.6% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.4% |
| 4 | 3.9% | 6.1% | 4.8% | 2.5% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 5 | 2.7% | 4.2% | 3.2% | 1.7% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Recent form
Playing profile
Portugal
Attack
41
Defence
70
Form
66
Wales
Attack
43
Defence
59
Form
16
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 4
What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League A, Group 4
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #4 |
| → Portugal | #1 | #4 |
| → Draw | #1 | #2 |
| → Wales | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Portugal vs Wales?
The model gives Portugal a 70% win probability, 13% for a draw, and 15% for an Wales win.
How many goals are expected in Portugal vs Wales?
Expected goals: Portugal 3.4, Wales 1.6 (total 5.0). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 92%.
What is the most likely score in Portugal vs Wales?
3–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.33%.