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← Primera División

Progreso - Cerro

Primera División September 13, 2026 15:00 Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo
Progreso
#7 · 6 pts
vs
Cerro
#3 · 10 pts
Weather at kick-off ☁️ Overcast 8.1°C 💨 12 km/h · Montevideo
⚡ Pre-match analysis
24.71%
Win
Progreso
35.78%
Draw
39.51%
Win
Cerro
0.53
Expected xG
0.88

Market probabilities

Most likely result 0–0 (24.08%)
1X2 Result ✓ 64.7% hit rate (17 picks)
1 25%
X 36%
2 40%
Double Chance
1X 61%
X2 75%
12 64%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 61%
Over 2.5 34%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Cerro a 39% win probability, against 35% for a draw and 24% for Progreso. Expected goals are 0.5 for Progreso and 0.9 for Cerro (total 1.4), with a 60% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 0–0 at 24.08% probability. In 1 previous meetings, Progreso have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Cerro.

Season Stats

Progreso
4W 0D 11L
Cerro
6W 1D 8L
Averages per game
0.6
Goals
0.8
1.3
Conceded
1.6
Percentages
53%
O 1.5
60%
33%
O 2.5
47%
33%
BTTS
40%
20%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Primera División. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
50%
BTTS
Progreso
3W 1D 6L · at home
Cerro
2W 2D 6L · away
0.9
gls/g
0.8
1.4
Conceded
2.2
30%
Win %
20%
40%
Win or Draw
40%
60%
O 1.5
90%
40%
O 2.5
60%
10%
O 3.5
40%
40%
BTTS
60%
20%
Clean Sht
10%
40%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Progreso Cerro →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 24.7% 21.6% 9.4% 2.8% 0.6% 0.1%
1 12.9% 11.3% 5.0% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1%
2 3.4% 3.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% —
3 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% — —
4 0.1% 0.1% — — — —
5 — — — — — —

Recent form

Progreso Progreso
W Albion FC 0–1
W Danubio 1–0
L Club Nacional 1–0
L Deportivo Maldonado 0–2
L Central Espanol 1–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Cerro Cerro
W Racing Montevideo 1–0
D Boston River 1–1
L Liverpool Montevideo 4–0
W Albion FC 2–1
W Danubio 0–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Progreso Progreso
Attack
13
Defence
76
Form
48
Cerro Cerro
Attack
27
Defence
72
Form
54
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Progreso
0
Draw
0
Cerro
14 Mar 2026 Primera División 1–0

Primera: Torneo Intermedio - B

# Team G Pts
1 Wanderers Wanderers 7 15
2 Club Nacional Club Nacional 7 13
3 Deportivo Maldonado Deportivo Maldonado 7 12
4 Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 7 12
5 Juventud Juventud 7 8
6 Albion FC Albion FC 7 6
7 Progreso Progreso 7 6
8 Danubio Danubio 7 4

What's at stake · Primera: Torneo Intermedio - B

Top 2 advance to the next round

Progreso Cerro
Current #7 #1
→ Progreso #5 #1
→ Draw #6 #1
→ Cerro #7 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Progreso vs Cerro?
The model gives Progreso a 24% win probability, 35% for a draw, and 39% for an Cerro win.
How many goals are expected in Progreso vs Cerro?
Expected goals: Progreso 0.5, Cerro 0.9 (total 1.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 60%.
What is the most likely score in Progreso vs Cerro?
0–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 24.08%.