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Qarabag - Kapaz

Premier League August 22, 2026 17:00
Qarabag
#3 · 13 pts
vs
Kapaz
#7 · 7 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
39.14%
Win
Qarabag
31.07%
Draw
29.79%
Win
Kapaz
2.22
Expected xG
0.49

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (12.66%)
1X2 Result
1 39%
X 31%
2 30%
Double Chance
1X 70%
X2 61%
12 69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 76%
Over 2.5 53%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Qarabag a 39% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Kapaz. Expected goals are 2.2 for Qarabag and 0.5 for Kapaz (total 2.7), with a 75% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 12.66% probability. In 3 previous meetings, Qarabag have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Kapaz.

Season Stats

Qarabag
9W 3D 3L
Kapaz
4W 2D 9L
Averages per game
2.6
Goals
0.8
1.0
Conceded
1.5
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
67%
67%
O 2.5
33%
53%
BTTS
33%
33%
Clean Sht
20%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Premier League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
35%
O 3.5
30%
BTTS
Qarabag
7W 1D 2L · at home
Kapaz
2W 2D 6L · away
3.0
gls/g
0.6
0.9
Conceded
1.5
70%
Win %
20%
80%
Win or Draw
40%
80%
O 1.5
70%
70%
O 2.5
20%
50%
O 3.5
20%
40%
BTTS
20%
40%
Clean Sht
30%
20%
Failed to Score
60%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Qarabag Kapaz →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 6.6% 3.3% 0.8% 0.1% — —
1 14.7% 7.3% 1.8% 0.3% — —
2 16.3% 8.1% 2.0% 0.3% — —
3 12.1% 6.0% 1.5% 0.2% — —
4 6.7% 3.3% 0.8% 0.1% — —
5 3.0% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% — —

Recent form

Qarabag Qarabag
W Safa Baku 1–0
D Zira 1–1
W Araz 3–2
W Sumqayıt 0–1
W Şamaxı FK 3–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 43%
Kapaz Kapaz
D Sumqayıt 1–1
W Qabala 1–0
L Şamaxı FK 1–4
W Turan 1–0
L Sabah FA 2–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 26%

Playing profile

Qarabag Qarabag
Attack
39
Defence
57
Form
50
Kapaz Kapaz
Attack
13
Defence
49
Form
33
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

1
Qarabag
0
Draw
2
Kapaz
20 Mar 2026 Premier League 0–1
24 Jan 2026 Premier League 0–2
4 Oct 2025 Premier League 1–0

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Neftchi Baku Neftchi Baku 6 15
2 Sabah FA Sabah FA 5 15
3 Qarabag Qarabag 5 13
4 Turan Turan 6 11
5 Zira Zira 6 10
6 Şamaxı FK Şamaxı FK 6 9
7 Kapaz Kapaz 5 7
8 Qabala Qabala 6 4
9 Imisli FK Imisli FK 6 4
10 Safa Baku Safa Baku 6 3
11 Sumqayıt Sumqayıt 5 2
12 Araz Araz 6 2
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Qarabag vs Kapaz?
The model gives Qarabag a 39% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 29% for an Kapaz win.
How many goals are expected in Qarabag vs Kapaz?
Expected goals: Qarabag 2.2, Kapaz 0.5 (total 2.7). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 75%.
What is the most likely score in Qarabag vs Kapaz?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 12.66%.