QPR 2–3 Derby — pre-match prediction — Championship — April 25, 2026

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Championship · Regular Season - 45 April 25, 2026 16:00

QPR

#15 · 58 pts

2 – 3

Final score

Derby

#8 · 69 pts

H. Vale (ast. D. Bennie) 13'

R. Kone (ast. H. Vale) 55'

25' (ast. M. Johnston) O. Fraulo

76' (ast. J. Ward) S. Langas

88' (ast. M. Clarke) J. Banel

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave QPR a 36% win probability (draw 29%, Derby 33%). The final result was QPR 2–3 Derby. In 1 previous meetings, QPR have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Derby.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.16

Actual xG

0.73

Saves

55%

Possession

45%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽H. Vale · ast. D. Bennie

13'

25'

ast. M. Johnston · O. Fraulo⚽

↕ A. S. Mbengue / K. Adamson

46'

54'

S. Szmodics

⚽R. Kone · ast. H. Vale

55'

61'

C. Forsyth / D. Sanderson ↕

62'

J. Banel / M. Johnston ↕

↕ D. Bennie / R. Burrell

62'

↕ K. Morgan / N. Madsen

62'

63'

D. Ozoh / O. Fraulo ↕

63'

S. Langas

↕ R. Kone / I. Chair

68'

R. Burrell

70'

75'

L. Salvesen / L. Travis ↕

76'

ast. J. Ward · S. Langas⚽

↕ P. Smyth / K. Saito

79'

81'

B. Brereton Diaz

88'

ast. M. Clarke · J. Banel⚽

90'+1

D. Batth / S. Szmodics ↕

Pre-match prediction

36.73%

QPR

29.58%

33.69%

Derby ←

we assigned to the actual result (Derby) 33.69% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

QPR

1.17

2.16

+0.99

Derby

1.10

0.73

-0.37

QPR dominated by xG (2.16 vs 0.73). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Coventry	46	95
2	Ipswich	46	84
3	Millwall	46	83
4	Southampton	46	80
5	Middlesbrough	46	80
6	Hull City	46	73
7	Wrexham	46	71
8	Derby	46	69
9	Norwich	46	65
10	Birmingham	46	64
11	Swansea	46	64
12	Bristol City	46	62
13	Sheffield Utd	46	60
14	Preston	46	60
15	QPR	46	58
16	Watford	46	57
17	Stoke City	46	55
18	Portsmouth	46	55
19	Charlton	46	53
20	Blackburn	46	52
21	West Brom	46	51
22	Oxford United	46	47
23	Leicester	46	46
24	Sheffield Wednesday	46	0

Lineups

QPR 4-4-2

82' G 6.00

R. Norrington-Davies 82' D 6.90

J. Clarke-Salter 82' D 6.30

R. Edwards 82' D 6.20

A. Mbengue 45' D 6.30

Paul Smyth 79' M 7.20

J. Varane 82' M 7.30

K. Morgan 62' M 6.90

H. Vale 1 ⚽ 1 👟 82' M 9.20

D. Bennie 1 👟 62' F 7.90

Richard Kone 1 ⚽ 68' F 6.90

Bench

I. Chair 14' M 6.20

K. Adamson 37' D 6.30

N. Madsen 20' M 6.50

Rayan Kolli F

R. Burrell 20' F 6.50

Derby 4-2-3-1

82' G 8.30

M. Johnston 1 👟 61' D 6.30

M. Clarke 1 👟 82' D 7.30

D. Sanderson 61' D 6.70

S. Langas 1 ⚽ 82' D 8.00

O. Fraulo 1 ⚽ 62' M 7.70

L. Travis 75' M 6.90

B. Brereton Diaz 82' M 6.20

S. Szmodics 82' M 6.30

1 👟 82' M 7.00

C. Morris 82' F 6.70

Bench

C. Forsyth 21' D 6.70

D. Ozoh 20' M 6.60

J. Banel 1 ⚽ 21' M 6.70

Best on the pitch

H. Vale

M · QPR

9.20

1 ⚽ 1 👟

4 shots · 37 pass

G · Derby

8.30

· 25 pass

S. Langas

D · Derby

8.00

1 ⚽

2 shots · 31 pass

D. Bennie

F · QPR

7.90

1 👟

· 22 pass

O. Fraulo

M · Derby

7.70

1 ⚽

1 shots · 16 pass

J. Varane

M · QPR

7.30

1 shots · 31 pass

QPR — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	82	6.00	—	—	—	23	13%	—	—	—
R. Norrington-Davies	D	82	6.90	—	—	—	32	26%	—	—	—
J. Clarke-Salter	D	82	6.30	—	—	—	30	22%	—	—	—
R. Edwards	D	82	6.20	—	—	1	35	30%	—	—	—
A. Mbengue	D	45	6.30	—	—	—	16	13%	—	—	—
Paul Smyth	M	79	7.20	—	—	5	15	11%	3	—	—
J. Varane	M	82	7.30	—	—	1	31	28%	1	—	—
K. Morgan	M	62	6.90	—	—	1	27	24%	1	—	—
H. Vale	M	82	9.20	1	1	4	37	30%	3	—	—
D. Bennie	F	62	7.90	—	1	—	22	16%	1	—	—
Richard Kone	F	68	6.90	1	—	3	20	17%	—	—	—
I. Chair	M	14	6.20	—	—	—	1	1%	—	—	—
K. Adamson	D	37	6.30	—	—	—	11	9%	2	—	—
N. Madsen	M	20	6.50	—	—	—	4	3%	—	—	—
R. Burrell	F	20	6.50	—	—	—	2	1%	—	1	—

Derby — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	82	8.30	—	—	—	25	9%	—	—	—
M. Johnston	D	61	6.30	—	1	1	18	11%	1	—	—
M. Clarke	D	82	7.30	—	1	—	39	36%	4	—	—
D. Sanderson	D	61	6.70	—	—	—	15	15%	—	—	—
S. Langas	D	82	8.00	1	—	2	31	25%	3	1	—
O. Fraulo	M	62	7.70	1	—	1	16	12%	2	—	—
L. Travis	M	75	6.90	—	—	—	35	28%	1	—	—
B. Brereton Diaz	M	82	6.20	—	—	—	16	12%	1	1	—
S. Szmodics	M	82	6.30	—	—	—	8	4%	—	1	—
	M	82	7.00	—	1	—	28	19%	—	—	—
C. Morris	F	82	6.70	—	—	—	12	4%	1	—	—
C. Forsyth	D	21	6.70	—	—	—	5	3%	—	—	—
D. Ozoh	M	20	6.60	—	—	1	7	7%	1	—	—
J. Banel	M	21	6.70	1	—	—	2	1%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of QPR vs Derby?

The final score was QPR 2–3 Derby.

What did the model predict before QPR vs Derby?

The model assigned 36% probability to a QPR win, 29% to a draw, and 33% to an Derby win.