QPR 2–3 Derby — pre-match prediction — Championship — April 25, 2026

← Championship

Championship · Regular Season - 45 April 25, 2026 16:00

QPR

#5 · 12 pts

2 – 3

Final score

Derby

#22 · 4 pts

H. Vale (ast. D. Bennie) 13'

R. Kone (ast. H. Vale) 55'

25' (ast. M. Johnston) O. Fraulo

76' (ast. J. Ward) S. Langas

88' (ast. M. Clarke) J. Banel

Share Telegram

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave QPR a 36% win probability (draw 29%, Derby 33%). The final result was QPR 2–3 Derby. In 1 previous meetings, QPR have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Derby.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.16

Actual xG

0.73

Saves

55%

Possession

45%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽H. Vale · ast. D. Bennie

13'

25'

ast. M. Johnston · O. Fraulo⚽

↕ A. S. Mbengue / K. Adamson

46'

54'

S. Szmodics

⚽R. Kone · ast. H. Vale

55'

61'

C. Forsyth / D. Sanderson ↕

62'

J. Banel / M. Johnston ↕

↕ D. Bennie / R. Burrell

62'

↕ K. Morgan / N. Madsen

62'

63'

D. Ozoh / O. Fraulo ↕

63'

S. Langas

↕ R. Kone / I. Chair

68'

R. Burrell

70'

75'

L. Salvesen / L. Travis ↕

76'

ast. J. Ward · S. Langas⚽

↕ P. Smyth / K. Saito

79'

81'

B. Brereton Diaz

88'

ast. M. Clarke · J. Banel⚽

90'+1

D. Batth / S. Szmodics ↕

Pre-match prediction

36.73%

QPR

29.58%

33.69%

Derby ←

we assigned to the actual result (Derby) 33.69% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

QPR

1.17

2.16

+0.99

Derby

1.10

0.73

-0.37

QPR dominated by xG (2.16 vs 0.73). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	West Ham	7	14
2	Swansea	7	14
3	West Brom	7	14
4	Middlesbrough	6	13
5	QPR	7	12
6	Charlton	7	12
7	Southampton	7	10
8	Birmingham	7	10
9	Stoke City	7	10
10	Bristol City	6	10
11	Norwich	7	9
12	Millwall	6	9
13	Sheffield Utd	6	9
14	Wolves	5	8
15	Blackburn	7	8
16	Lincoln	6	8
17	Watford	7	8
18	Portsmouth	6	7
19	Wrexham	7	7
20	Bolton	7	7
21	Cardiff	7	4
22	Derby	7	4
23	Preston	7	3
24	Burnley	7	3

Lineups

QPR 4-4-2

82' G 6.00

R. Norrington-Davies 82' D 6.90

J. Clarke-Salter 82' D 6.30

R. Edwards 82' D 6.20

A. Mbengue 45' D 6.30

P. Smyth 79' M 7.20

J. Varane 82' M 7.30

Kieran Morgan 62' M 6.90

H. Vale 1 ⚽ 1 👟 82' M 9.20

D. Bennie 1 👟 62' F 7.90

R. Kone 1 ⚽ 68' F 6.90

Bench

I. Chair 14' M 6.20

K. Adamson 37' D 6.30

N. Madsen 20' M 6.50

Rayan Kolli F

R. Burrell 20' F 6.50

Derby 4-2-3-1

82' G 8.30

M. Johnston 1 👟 61' D 6.30

Matt Clarke 1 👟 82' D 7.30

D. Sanderson 61' D 6.70

S. Langås 1 ⚽ 82' D 8.00

O. Fraulo 1 ⚽ 62' M 7.70

L. Travis 75' M 6.90

B. Brereton 82' M 6.20

S. Szmodics 82' M 6.30

1 👟 82' M 7.00

C. Morris 82' F 6.70

Bench

C. Forsyth 21' D 6.70

D. Ozoh 20' M 6.60

J. Banel 1 ⚽ 21' M 6.70

Best on the pitch

H. Vale

M · QPR

9.20

1 ⚽ 1 👟

4 shots · 37 pass

G · Derby

8.30

· 25 pass

S. Langås

D · Derby

8.00

1 ⚽

2 shots · 31 pass

D. Bennie

F · QPR

7.90

1 👟

· 22 pass

O. Fraulo

M · Derby

7.70

1 ⚽

1 shots · 16 pass

J. Varane

M · QPR

7.30

1 shots · 31 pass

QPR — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	82	6.00	—	—	—	23	13%	—	—	—
R. Norrington-Davies	D	82	6.90	—	—	—	32	26%	—	—	—
J. Clarke-Salter	D	82	6.30	—	—	—	30	22%	—	—	—
R. Edwards	D	82	6.20	—	—	1	35	30%	—	—	—
A. Mbengue	D	45	6.30	—	—	—	16	13%	—	—	—
P. Smyth	M	79	7.20	—	—	5	15	11%	3	—	—
J. Varane	M	82	7.30	—	—	1	31	28%	1	—	—
Kieran Morgan	M	62	6.90	—	—	1	27	24%	1	—	—
H. Vale	M	82	9.20	1	1	4	37	30%	3	—	—
D. Bennie	F	62	7.90	—	1	—	22	16%	1	—	—
R. Kone	F	68	6.90	1	—	3	20	17%	—	—	—
I. Chair	M	14	6.20	—	—	—	1	1%	—	—	—
K. Adamson	D	37	6.30	—	—	—	11	9%	2	—	—
N. Madsen	M	20	6.50	—	—	—	4	3%	—	—	—
R. Burrell	F	20	6.50	—	—	—	2	1%	—	1	—

Derby — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	82	8.30	—	—	—	25	9%	—	—	—
M. Johnston	D	61	6.30	—	1	1	18	11%	1	—	—
Matt Clarke	D	82	7.30	—	1	—	39	36%	4	—	—
D. Sanderson	D	61	6.70	—	—	—	15	15%	—	—	—
S. Langås	D	82	8.00	1	—	2	31	25%	3	1	—
O. Fraulo	M	62	7.70	1	—	1	16	12%	2	—	—
L. Travis	M	75	6.90	—	—	—	35	28%	1	—	—
B. Brereton	M	82	6.20	—	—	—	16	12%	1	1	—
S. Szmodics	M	82	6.30	—	—	—	8	4%	—	1	—
	M	82	7.00	—	1	—	28	19%	—	—	—
C. Morris	F	82	6.70	—	—	—	12	4%	1	—	—
C. Forsyth	D	21	6.70	—	—	—	5	3%	—	—	—
D. Ozoh	M	20	6.60	—	—	1	7	7%	1	—	—
J. Banel	M	21	6.70	1	—	—	2	1%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of QPR vs Derby?

The final score was QPR 2–3 Derby.

What did the model predict before QPR vs Derby?

The model assigned 36% probability to a QPR win, 29% to a draw, and 33% to an Derby win.