Championship
· Regular Season - 45
April 25, 2026 16:00
H. Vale
(ast. D. Bennie)
13'
R. Kone
(ast. H. Vale)
55'
25'
(ast. M. Johnston)
O. Fraulo
76'
(ast. J. Ward)
S. Langas
88'
(ast. M. Clarke)
J. Banel
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave QPR a 36% win probability (draw 29%, Derby 33%). The final result was QPR 2–3 Derby. In 1 previous meetings, QPR have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Derby.
Match statistics
15
Total shots
5
12
Shots on target
2
2.16
Actual xG
0.73
0
Saves
10
55%
Possession
45%
8
Corners
5
11
Tackles
15
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽H. Vale
· ast. D. Bennie
13'
25'
ast. M. Johnston ·
O. Fraulo⚽
A. S. Mbengue
/ K. Adamson
46'
54'
S. Szmodics
⚽R. Kone
· ast. H. Vale
55'
61'
C. Forsyth
/
D. Sanderson
62'
J. Banel
/
M. Johnston
D. Bennie
/ R. Burrell
62'
K. Morgan
/ N. Madsen
62'
63'
D. Ozoh
/
O. Fraulo
63'
S. Langas
R. Kone
/ I. Chair
68'
R. Burrell
70'
75'
L. Salvesen
/
L. Travis
76'
ast. J. Ward ·
S. Langas⚽
P. Smyth
/ K. Saito
79'
81'
B. Brereton Diaz
88'
ast. M. Clarke ·
J. Banel⚽
90'+1
D. Batth
/
S. Szmodics
Pre-match prediction
36.73%
QPR
29.58%
X
33.69%
Derby ←
we assigned to the actual result (Derby)
33.69%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.17
2.16
+0.99
1.10
0.73
-0.37
QPR dominated by xG (2.16 vs 0.73).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
82'
G
18
Rhys Norrington-Davies
82'
D
Rhys Norrington-Davies
82'
D
6
J. Clarke-Salter
82'
D
37
R. Edwards
82'
D
27
A. Mbengue
45'
D
A. Mbengue
45'
D
11
Paul Smyth
79'
M
Paul Smyth
79'
M
40
J. Varane
82'
M
21
K. Morgan
62'
M
20
H. Vale
1 ⚽
1 👟
82'
M
23
D. Bennie
1 👟
62'
F
22
Richard Kone
1 ⚽
68'
F
Bench
10
I. Chair
14'
M
2
K. Adamson
37'
D
24
N. Madsen
20'
M
26
Rayan Kolli
F
16
R. Burrell
20'
F
1
82'
G
22
M. Johnston
1 👟
61'
D
M. Johnston
1 👟
61'
D
5
M. Clarke
1 👟
82'
D
28
D. Sanderson
61'
D
6
Sondre Langås
1 ⚽
82'
D
Sondre Langås
1 ⚽
82'
D
29
O. Fraulo
1 ⚽
62'
M
27
L. Travis
75'
M
L. Travis
75'
M
25
B. Brereton Diaz
82'
M
19
S. Szmodics
82'
M
23
1 👟
82'
M
9
C. Morris
82'
F
C. Morris
82'
F
Bench
3
C. Forsyth
21'
D
18
D. Ozoh
20'
M
34
J. Banel
1 ⚽
21'
M
Best on the pitch
H. Vale
M · QPR
9.20
1 ⚽ 1 👟
4 shots
· 37 pass
G · Derby
8.30
· 25 pass
Sondre Langås
D · Derby
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 31 pass
D. Bennie
F · QPR
7.90
1 👟
· 22 pass
O. Fraulo
M · Derby
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 16 pass
J. Varane
M · QPR
7.30
1 shots
· 31 pass
QPR — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 82 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 23 | 13% | — | — | — | |
| Rhys Norrington-Davies | D | 82 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 26% | — | — | — |
| J. Clarke-Salter | D | 82 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 30 | 22% | — | — | — |
| R. Edwards | D | 82 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 30% | — | — | — |
| A. Mbengue | D | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 16 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Paul Smyth | M | 79 | 7.20 | — | — | 5 | 15 | 11% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Varane | M | 82 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| K. Morgan | M | 62 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| H. Vale | M | 82 | 9.20 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 37 | 30% | 3 | — | — |
| D. Bennie | F | 62 | 7.90 | — | 1 | — | 22 | 16% | 1 | — | — |
| Richard Kone | F | 68 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 20 | 17% | — | — | — |
| I. Chair | M | 14 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| K. Adamson | D | 37 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 11 | 9% | 2 | — | — |
| N. Madsen | M | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| R. Burrell | F | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | 1 | — |
Derby — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 82 | 8.30 | — | — | — | 25 | 9% | — | — | — | |
| M. Johnston | D | 61 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 1 | 18 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Clarke | D | 82 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 39 | 36% | 4 | — | — |
| D. Sanderson | D | 61 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 15 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Sondre Langås | D | 82 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 31 | 25% | 3 | 1 | — |
| O. Fraulo | M | 62 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 1 | 16 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Travis | M | 75 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 28% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Brereton Diaz | M | 82 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 12% | 1 | 1 | — |
| S. Szmodics | M | 82 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 8 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| M | 82 | 7.00 | — | 1 | — | 28 | 19% | — | — | — | |
| C. Morris | F | 82 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Forsyth | D | 21 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| D. Ozoh | M | 20 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 7 | 7% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Banel | M | 21 | 6.70 | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of QPR vs Derby?
The final score was QPR 2–3 Derby.
What did the model predict before QPR vs Derby?
The model assigned 36% probability to a QPR win, 29% to a draw, and 33% to an Derby win.