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Championship · Regular Season - 10 October 14, 2026 20:45 Loftus Road, London
QPR
#8 · 20 pts
4 – 1
Final score
Derby
#23 · 7 pts
✓Model correct — prediction QPR
Alfie Lloyd (ast. Boy Kemper) 18'
Nicolas Madsen 22' (pen.)
Harvey Vale 45'
Paul Smyth (ast. Nicolas Madsen) 68'
90'+10 Lars-Jørgen Salvesen
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave QPR a 50% win probability (draw 27%, Derby 21%). The final result was QPR 4–1 Derby. In 2 previous meetings, QPR have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Derby.

Match statistics
9
Total shots
15
7
Shots on target
6
1.60
Actual xG
0.92
5
Saves
3
48%
Possession
52%
1
Corners
3
13
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
12'
Ryan Nyambe / Sondre Langas ↕
⚽Alfie Lloyd · ast. Boy Kemper
18'
⚽Nicolas Madsen (pen.)
22'
24'
D. Ozoh
28'
John Eustace
44'
Sammie Szmodics
⚽Harvey Vale
45'
45'
Lewis Travis / D. Ozoh ↕
45'
Henrik Wendel Meister / Mohammed Fuseini ↕
56'
Henrik Wendel Meister
Harvey Vale
57'
Glen Kamara
60'
↕ Rayan Jawad Kolli / Richard Kone
62'
↕ Alfie Lloyd / Jonathan Varane
62'
↕ Harvey Vale / Kwame Poku
62'
63'
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen / Carlton Morris ↕
⚽Paul Smyth · ast. Nicolas Madsen
68'
70'
Filip Bilbija / Sammie Szmodics ↕
↕ Boy Kemper / Amadou Salif Mbengue
72'
↕ Paul Smyth / Leon Scarlett
77'
90'+10
Lars-Jørgen Salvesen⚽
Pre-match prediction
50.77%
QPR ←
27.78%
X
21.45%
Derby
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (QPR) 50.77% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
QPR
1.61
1.60
-0.01
Derby
0.64
0.92
+0.28
QPR dominated by xG (1.60 vs 0.92). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 12 25
2 Swansea Swansea 12 23
3 West Ham West Ham 12 22
4 Wolves Wolves 12 21
5 West Brom West Brom 12 21
6 Southampton Southampton 12 20
7 Birmingham Birmingham 12 20
8 QPR QPR 12 20
9 Stoke City Stoke City 12 20
10 Blackburn Blackburn 12 18
11 Portsmouth Portsmouth 12 18
12 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 12 16
13 Millwall Millwall 12 15
14 Bristol City Bristol City 12 15
15 Lincoln Lincoln 12 15
16 Cardiff Cardiff 12 14
17 Wrexham Wrexham 12 14
18 Bolton Bolton 12 14
19 Charlton Charlton 12 14
20 Norwich Norwich 12 12
21 Watford Watford 12 11
22 Burnley Burnley 12 8
23 Derby Derby 12 7
24 Preston Preston 12 5
Lineups
QPR QPR 4-2-3-1
1 P. Charles P. Charles G 7.34
12 B. Kemper B. Kemper 1 👟 72' D 6.95
5 R. Edwards R. Edwards D 7.44
3 J. Dunne J. Dunne D 7.13
2 K. Adamson K. Adamson D 6.73
18 G. Kamara G. Kamara M 6.55
24 N. Madsen N. Madsen 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 7.52
15 A. Lloyd A. Lloyd 1 ⚽ 62' M 7.89
20 H. Vale H. Vale 1 ⚽ 62' M 7.52
11 P. Smyth P. Smyth 1 ⚽ 77' M 7.62
26 Rayan Jawad Kolli Rayan Jawad Kolli 62' F 5.98
Bench
27 A. Mbengue A. Mbengue 13' D 6.56
13 C. Ward C. Ward G 0.00
23 I. Alemayehu I. Alemayehu M 0.00
6 J. Clarke-Salter J. Clarke-Salter D 0.00
40 J. Varane J. Varane 28' M 6.61
17 K. Poku K. Poku 28' M 6.35
4 L. Morrison L. Morrison D 0.00
22 R. Kone R. Kone 28' F 6.31
Derby Derby 4-2-3-1
31 J. Vickers J. Vickers G 5.60
26 R. Hedges R. Hedges D 6.33
28 D. Sanderson D. Sanderson D 6.36
6 S. Langås S. Langås 12' D 5.41
23 J. Ward J. Ward D 6.11
20 A. Mowatt A. Mowatt M 6.20
4 D. Ozoh D. Ozoh 45' M 5.69
11 S. Szmodics S. Szmodics 70' M 5.72
8 B. Clark B. Clark M 5.88
16 M. Fuseini M. Fuseini 45' M 5.88
9 C. Morris C. Morris 63' F 6.38
Bench
33 C. Blackett-Taylor C. Blackett-Taylor F 0.00
13 F. Bilbija F. Bilbija 20' M 5.85
19 H. Meister H. Meister 45' F 6.70
15 L. Salvesen L. Salvesen 1 ⚽ 27' F 7.80
27 L. Travis L. Travis 45' M 5.85
29 O. Fraulo O. Fraulo M 0.00
10 R. Brewster R. Brewster F 0.00
24 R. Nyambe R. Nyambe 78' D 6.32
12 R. O'Donnell R. O'Donnell G 0.00
Best on the pitch
A. Lloyd
A. Lloyd
M · QPR
7.89
1 ⚽
2 shots · 21 pass
L. Salvesen
L. Salvesen
F · Derby
7.80
1 ⚽
5 shots · 4 pass
P. Smyth
P. Smyth
M · QPR
7.62
1 ⚽
2 shots · 15 pass
H. Vale
H. Vale
M · QPR
7.52
1 ⚽
1 shots · 19 pass
N. Madsen
N. Madsen
M · QPR
7.52
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 38 pass
R. Edwards
R. Edwards
D · QPR
7.44
· 61 pass
QPR QPR — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
P. Charles G 90 7.34 — — 0 52 34% 0 — —
B. Kemper D 72 6.95 — 1 0 20 13% 2 — —
R. Edwards D 90 7.44 — — 0 61 56% 0 — —
J. Dunne D 90 7.13 — — 0 62 57% 1 — —
K. Adamson D 90 6.73 — — 0 39 31% 2 — —
G. Kamara M 90 6.55 — — 0 57 51% 0 1 —
N. Madsen M 90 7.52 1 1 2 38 31% 3 — —
A. Lloyd M 62 7.89 1 — 2 21 17% 1 — —
H. Vale M 62 7.52 1 — 1 19 15% 1 1 —
P. Smyth M 77 7.62 1 — 2 15 12% 0 — —
Rayan Jawad Kolli F 62 5.98 — — 1 17 13% 1 — —
A. Mbengue D 13 6.56 — — 0 2 2% 0 — —
J. Varane M 28 6.61 — — 0 17 17% 1 — —
K. Poku M 28 6.35 — — 1 7 5% 1 — —
R. Kone F 28 6.31 — — 0 9 6% 0 — —
Derby Derby — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
J. Vickers G 90 5.60 — — 0 38 26% 0 — —
R. Hedges D 90 6.33 — — 0 42 28% 1 — —
D. Sanderson D 90 6.36 — — 0 61 54% 0 — —
S. Langås D 12 5.41 — — 0 1 1% 0 — —
J. Ward D 90 6.11 — — 0 51 39% 2 — —
A. Mowatt M 90 6.20 — — 1 53 43% 0 — —
D. Ozoh M 45 5.69 — — 1 13 12% 1 1 —
S. Szmodics M 70 5.72 — — 0 12 10% 1 1 —
B. Clark M 90 5.88 — — 5 26 20% 1 — —
M. Fuseini M 45 5.88 — — 0 6 5% 0 — —
C. Morris F 63 6.38 — — 1 19 9% 1 — —
F. Bilbija M 20 5.85 — — 0 9 7% 0 — —
H. Meister F 45 6.70 — — 2 10 7% 1 1 —
L. Salvesen F 27 7.80 1 — 5 4 3% 0 — —
L. Travis M 45 5.85 — — 0 49 38% 1 — —
R. Nyambe D 78 6.32 — — 0 69 63% 5 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of QPR vs Derby?
The final score was QPR 4–1 Derby.
What did the model predict before QPR vs Derby?
The model assigned 50% probability to a QPR win, 27% to a draw, and 21% to an Derby win.