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Championship · Regular Season - 40 April 03, 2026 16:00
QPR
#6 · 13 pts
2 – 1
Final score
Watford
#20 · 8 pts
R. Kolli (ast. P. Smyth) 26'
P. Smyth 63'
85' I. Louza
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave QPR a 38% win probability (draw 26%, Watford 34%). The final result was QPR 2–1 Watford. In 1 previous meetings, QPR have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Watford.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
5
8
Shots on target
3
2.40
Actual xG
0.34
2
Saves
6
46%
Possession
54%
2
Corners
3
11
Tackles
14
6
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
23'
Edoardo Bove
⚽R. Kolli · ast. P. Smyth
26'
Rayan Kolli
29'
Jimmy Dunne
30'
↕ R. Kolli / D. Bennie
46'
49'
Pierre Ekwah
57'
N. Mendy / P. Ekwah ↕
57'
M. Doumbia / N. Irankunda ↕
57'
A. Nabizada / E. Bove ↕
Paul Smyth
61'
62'
Saba Goglichidze
⚽P. Smyth
63'
↕ P. Smyth / K. Saito
72'
73'
K. Baah / G. Chakvetadze ↕
↕ H. Vale / K. Poku
79'
Richard Kone
84'
85'
V. Semedo / S. Goglichidze ↕
85'
I. Louza⚽
Amadou Salif Mbengue
87'
Kwame Poku
90'+1
90'+1
Imrân Louza
Pre-match prediction
38.33%
QPR ←
26.89%
X
34.78%
Watford
we assigned to the actual result (QPR) 38.33% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
QPR
1.16
2.40
+1.24
Watford
1.49
0.34
-1.15
QPR dominated by xG (2.40 vs 0.34). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Swansea Swansea 8 17
2 West Ham West Ham 8 15
3 Middlesbrough Middlesbrough 8 15
4 Wolves Wolves 7 14
5 West Brom West Brom 8 14
6 QPR QPR 8 13
7 Stoke City Stoke City 8 13
8 Bristol City Bristol City 8 13
9 Charlton Charlton 8 12
10 Birmingham Birmingham 8 11
11 Millwall Millwall 8 11
12 Lincoln Lincoln 8 11
13 Southampton Southampton 8 10
14 Wrexham Wrexham 8 10
15 Bolton Bolton 8 10
16 Blackburn Blackburn 8 9
17 Norwich Norwich 8 9
18 Sheffield Utd Sheffield Utd 8 9
19 Portsmouth Portsmouth 7 8
20 Watford Watford 8 8
21 Cardiff Cardiff 8 7
22 Derby Derby 8 5
23 Preston Preston 8 4
24 Burnley Burnley 8 4
Lineups
QPR QPR 4-4-2
13
G 6.50
18 R. Norrington-Davies R. Norrington-Davies D 7.30
37 R. Edwards R. Edwards D 6.90
3 J. Dunne J. Dunne D 7.00
27 A. Mbengue A. Mbengue D 6.20
11 P. Smyth P. Smyth 1 ⚽ 1 👟 72' M 9.70
40 J. Varane J. Varane M 7.00
21 Kieran Morgan Kieran Morgan M 6.90
20 H. Vale H. Vale 79' M 7.20
26
Rayan Kolli 1 ⚽ 45' F 7.00
22 R. Kone R. Kone F 6.00
Bench
23 D. Bennie D. Bennie 45' F 5.90
15 I. Hayden I. Hayden M
6 J. Clarke-Salter J. Clarke-Salter D
2 Kealey Adamson Kealey Adamson D
17 K. Poku K. Poku 11' M 6.20
5 S. Cook S. Cook D
Watford Watford 4-4-2
1 E. Selvik E. Selvik G 7.50
29 J. Pétris J. Pétris D 6.60
3 S. Goglichidze S. Goglichidze 85' D 6.30
6 M. Pollock M. Pollock D 6.30
4
D 6.90
8 G. Chakvetadze G. Chakvetadze 72' M 6.70
17 P. Ekwah P. Ekwah 57' M 6.30
15 E. Bove E. Bove 57' M 5.90
66 Nestory Irankunda Nestory Irankunda 57' M 6.50
10 I. Louza I. Louza 1 ⚽ F 8.00
9 L. Kjerrumgaard L. Kjerrumgaard F 6.20
Bench
20 M. Doumbia M. Doumbia 33' F 6.70
23 N. Mendy N. Mendy 33' M 7.00
Best on the pitch
P. Smyth
P. Smyth
M · QPR
9.70
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 13 pass
I. Louza
I. Louza
F · Watford
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots · 49 pass
E. Selvik
E. Selvik
G · Watford
7.50
· 36 pass
R. Norrington-Davies
R. Norrington-Davies
D · QPR
7.30
· 45 pass
H. Vale
H. Vale
M · QPR
7.20
3 shots · 20 pass
N. Mendy
N. Mendy
M · Watford
7.00
· 21 pass
QPR QPR — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.50 — — — 25 14% — — —
R. Norrington-Davies D 90 7.30 — — — 45 32% 2 — —
R. Edwards D 90 6.90 — — — 57 48% 1 — —
J. Dunne D 90 7.00 — — 1 49 40% — 1 —
A. Mbengue D 90 6.20 — — — 20 16% — 1 —
P. Smyth M 72 9.70 1 1 2 13 12% 1 1 —
J. Varane M 90 7.00 — — — 30 24% 2 — —
Kieran Morgan M 90 6.90 — — — 36 30% 2 — —
H. Vale M 79 7.20 — — 3 20 11% 1 — —
Rayan Kolli F 45 7.00 1 — 4 10 9% — 1 —
R. Kone F 90 6.00 — — 1 23 12% 2 1 —
D. Bennie F 45 5.90 — — 1 4 3% — — —
K. Poku M 11 6.20 — — — 2 1% — 1 —
Watford Watford — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
E. Selvik G 90 7.50 — — — 36 22% — — —
J. Pétris D 90 6.60 — — — 31 27% 1 — —
S. Goglichidze D 85 6.30 — — — 41 33% 2 1 —
M. Pollock D 90 6.30 — — — 48 33% 1 — —
D 90 6.90 — — — 33 26% 3 — —
G. Chakvetadze M 72 6.70 — — — 26 22% 1 — —
P. Ekwah M 57 6.30 — — — 22 19% 1 1 —
E. Bove M 57 5.90 — — — 12 9% 2 1 —
Nestory Irankunda M 57 6.50 — — 1 10 7% 1 — —
I. Louza F 90 8.00 1 — 2 49 42% — 1 —
L. Kjerrumgaard F 90 6.20 — — 2 20 14% — — —
M. Doumbia F 33 6.70 — — — 16 13% — — —
N. Mendy M 33 7.00 — — — 21 20% 2 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of QPR vs Watford?
The final score was QPR 2–1 Watford.
What did the model predict before QPR vs Watford?
The model assigned 38% probability to a QPR win, 26% to a draw, and 34% to an Watford win.