Racing Santander 2–2 Villarreal — pre-match prediction — La Liga — August 16, 2026

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La Liga · Regular Season - 1 August 16, 2026 17:00 El Sardinero, Santander

Racing Santander

#13 · 11 pts

2 – 2

Final score

Villarreal

#10 · 12 pts

A. Martin 21' (pen.)

S. Martinez 34'

45'+1 (ast. G. Mikautadze) N. Pepe

45' (ast. A. Moleiro) P. Gueye

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Villarreal a 35% win probability (draw 32%, Racing Santander 32%). The final result was Racing Santander 2–2 Villarreal. In 1 previous meetings, Racing Santander have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Villarreal.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.01

Actual xG

0.87

Saves

41%

Possession

59%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

↕ Pedro Felipe / Manu

16'

⚽A. Martin (pen.)

21'

⚽S. Martinez

34'

45'+1

ast. G. Mikautadze · N. Pepe⚽

G. Puerta

45'+4

45'

ast. A. Moleiro · P. Gueye⚽

48'

J. Foyth

56'

G. Moreno / S. Comesana ↕

56'

T. Buchanan / A. Moleiro ↕

56'

C. Macia / A. Perez ↕

J. Lopez

62'

↕ A. Villalibre / Y. Zabiri

69'

↕ S. Martinez / M. Gueye

69'

73'

P. Gueye

P. Ramon

75'

77'

I. Akhomach / N. Pepe ↕

↕ P. Ramon / F. Gonzalez

77'

↕ S. Canales / D. Diaz

77'

87'

S. Mourino

88'

A. Freeman / S. Mourino ↕

90'+3

C. Romero

Pre-match prediction

32.61%

Racing

32.24%

X ←

35.15%

Villarreal

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 32.24% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Racing

2.85

2.01

-0.84

Villarreal

0.52

0.87

+0.35

Racing Santander dominated by xG (2.01 vs 0.87). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Barcelona	10	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	25
3	Real Madrid	10	24
4	Real Betis	10	20
5	Real Sociedad	10	19
6	Sevilla	10	17
7	Alaves	10	12
8	Athletic Club	9	12
9	Celta Vigo	10	12
10	Villarreal	10	12
11	Deportivo La Coruna	10	11
12	Osasuna	10	11
13	Racing Santander	10	11
14	Levante	10	10
15	Elche	10	10
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	9
17	Getafe	10	9
18	Espanyol	10	8
19	Valencia	10	6
20	Malaga	10	5

Lineups

Racing Santander 4-2-3-1

Julen Agirrezabala G 6.30

Jorge Salinas D 6.90

Pablo Ramón 77' D 6.70

Pedro Felipe 16' D 6.30

Álvaro Mantilla D 6.50

Sergio Martinez 69' M 7.20

G. Puerta M 7.20

Iñigo Vicente M 7.90

Sergio Canales 77' M 6.60

Andrés Martín 1 ⚽ M 7.20

Asier Villalibre 69' F 6.20

Bench

Andrés Vallecillo M

Carlos Sánchez D

Diego Díaz 15' M 6.70

Facundo González 15' D 6.30

Hugo Martín M

Íñigo Sainz-Maza M

Jorge Castellanos M

Juan Carlos Arana F

Manu Hernando 76' D 7.20

M. Gueye 23' M 6.90

M. Zabiri 23' F 6.30

S. Eriksson G

Villarreal 4-4-2

Luíz Júnior G 6.60

Carlos Romero D 7.30

Renato Veiga D 6.90

J. Foyth D 7.00

S. Mouriño 88' D 6.60

Alberto Moleiro 1 👟 56' M 6.60

P. Gueye 1 ⚽ M 7.90

Santi Comesaña 56' M 6.50

N. Pépé 1 ⚽ 77' M 7.90

G. Mikautadze 1 👟 F 6.50

Ayoze Pérez 56' F 6.60

Bench

A. Freeman 4' D

Cheikh Tidiane Thiam M

C. Macia 36' M 6.90

Gerard Moreno 36' F 6.90

Ilias Akhomach 15' F 6.50

Logan Costa D

Pau Navarro D

P. Gulácsi G

Sergi Cardona D

T. Buchanan 36' F 6.20

T. Oluwaseyi F

Willy Kambwala Ndengushi D

Best on the pitch

N. Pépé

M · Villarreal

7.90

1 ⚽

2 shots · 38 pass

P. Gueye

M · Villarreal

7.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 56 pass

Iñigo Vicente

M · Racing

7.90

· 64 pass

Carlos Romero

D · Villarreal

7.30

1 shots · 53 pass

Manu Hernando

D · Racing

7.20

1 shots · 15 pass

Sergio Martinez

M · Racing

7.20

1 shots · 22 pass

Racing Santander — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Julen Agirrezabala	G	92	6.30	—	—	—	20	16%	—	—	—
Jorge Salinas	D	92	6.90	—	—	—	37	29%	4	—	—
Pablo Ramón	D	77	6.70	—	—	—	31	29%	3	1	—
Pedro Felipe	D	16	6.30	—	—	—	3	2%	—	—	—
Álvaro Mantilla	D	92	6.50	—	—	1	22	17%	2	—	—
Sergio Martinez	M	69	7.20	—	—	1	22	17%	1	—	—
G. Puerta	M	92	7.20	—	—	—	63	61%	1	1	—
Iñigo Vicente	M	92	7.90	—	—	—	64	52%	3	—	—
Sergio Canales	M	77	6.60	—	—	1	40	35%	1	—	—
Andrés Martín	M	92	7.20	1	—	4	28	19%	3	—	—
Asier Villalibre	F	69	6.20	—	—	1	9	5%	—	—	—
Diego Díaz	M	15	6.70	—	—	—	4	3%	—	—	—
Facundo González	D	15	6.30	—	—	—	1	—	1	—	—
Manu Hernando	D	76	7.20	—	—	1	15	12%	—	—	—
M. Gueye	M	23	6.90	—	—	—	12	10%	—	—	—
M. Zabiri	F	23	6.30	—	—	—	3	3%	—	—	—

Villarreal — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Luíz Júnior	G	92	6.60	—	—	—	20	18%	—	—	—
Carlos Romero	D	92	7.30	—	—	1	53	50%	3	—	—
Renato Veiga	D	92	6.90	—	—	—	80	75%	—	—	—
J. Foyth	D	92	7.00	—	—	—	77	70%	1	1	—
S. Mouriño	D	88	6.60	—	—	1	53	44%	5	1	—
Alberto Moleiro	M	56	6.60	—	1	—	27	26%	—	—	—
P. Gueye	M	92	7.90	1	—	1	56	47%	1	1	—
Santi Comesaña	M	56	6.50	—	—	—	29	26%	4	—	—
N. Pépé	M	77	7.90	1	—	2	38	33%	1	—	—
G. Mikautadze	F	92	6.50	—	1	3	28	25%	—	—	—
Ayoze Pérez	F	56	6.60	—	—	1	7	7%	2	—	—
A. Freeman	D	4	—	—	—	—	2	2%	—	—	—
C. Macia	M	36	6.90	—	—	—	26	25%	3	—	—
Gerard Moreno	F	36	6.90	—	—	—	20	16%	1	—	—
Ilias Akhomach	F	15	6.50	—	—	—	9	6%	1	—	—
T. Buchanan	F	36	6.20	—	—	1	11	9%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Racing Santander vs Villarreal?

The final score was Racing Santander 2–2 Villarreal.

What did the model predict before Racing Santander vs Villarreal?

The model assigned 32% probability to a Racing Santander win, 32% to a draw, and 35% to an Villarreal win.