Conference League · Round of 16 March 19, 2026 18:45

Raków Częstochowa

#2 · 14 pts

1 – 2

Final score

Fiorentina

#15 · 9 pts

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Fiorentina a 43% win probability (draw 24%, Raków Częstochowa 32%). The final result was Raków Częstochowa 1–2 Fiorentina. In 1 previous meetings, Raków Częstochowa have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Fiorentina.

Match statistics

1

Shots on target

7

0.76

Actual xG

1.67

49%

Possession

51%

2

Corners

5

Pre-match prediction

32.4%

Raków

24.14%

X

43.46%

Fiorentina ←

we assigned to the actual result (Fiorentina) 43.46% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

Raków

0.98

0.76

-0.22

Fiorentina

2.59

1.67

-0.92

Fiorentina dominated by xG (1.67 vs 0.76). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Strasbourg	6	16
2	Raków Częstochowa	6	14
3	AEK Athens FC	6	13
4	Sparta Praha	6	13
5	Rayo Vallecano	6	13
6	Shakhtar Donetsk	6	13
7	FSV Mainz 05	6	13
8	AEK Larnaca	6	12
9	Lausanne	6	11
10	Crystal Palace	6	10
11	Lech Poznan	6	10
12	Samsunspor	6	10
13	Celje	6	10
14	AZ Alkmaar	6	10
15	Fiorentina	6	9
16	HNK Rijeka	6	9
17	Jagiellonia	6	9
18	Omonia Nicosia	6	8
19	FC Noah	6	8
20	Drita	6	8
21	KuPS	6	7
22	Shkendija	6	7
23	Zrinjski	6	7
24	Sigma Olomouc	6	7
25	Universitatea Craiova	6	7
26	Lincoln Red Imps FC	6	7
27	Dynamo Kyiv	6	6
28	Legia Warszawa	6	6
29	Slovan Bratislava	6	6
30	Breidablik	6	5
31	Shamrock Rovers	6	4
32	BK Hacken	6	3
33	Hamrun Spartans	6	3
34	Shelbourne	6	2
35	Aberdeen	6	2
36	Rapid Vienna	6	1