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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5 August 30, 2026 17:00
Rapid Vienna
#3 · 12 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Sturm Graz
#4 · 8 pts
Y. Demir 7' (pen.)
M. Tilio (ast. T. Adamsen) 17'
P. Dahl (ast. Y. Demir) 86'
10' (ast. S. Seidl) B. Beganovic
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Rapid Vienna a 34% win probability (draw 31%, Sturm Graz 33%). The final result was Rapid Vienna 3–1 Sturm Graz. In 4 previous meetings, Rapid Vienna have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Sturm Graz.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
15
6
Shots on target
5
2.01
Actual xG
0.79
4
Saves
3
56%
Possession
44%
6
Corners
4
15
Tackles
13
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
3'
J. Heil
⚽Y. Demir (pen.)
7'
10'
ast. S. Seidl · B. Beganovic⚽
⚽M. Tilio · ast. T. Adamsen
17'
46'
L. Balbo / E. Soglo ↕
↕ J. Horn / E. Roka
46'
46'
G. Mamageishvili / J. Hodl ↕
53'
J. Gorenc Stankovic
59'
N. Weiper / B. Beganovic ↕
R. Amane
59'
↕ M. Tilio / P. Dahl
61'
65'
L. Weinhandl
↕ R. Amane / M. Seidl
73'
↕ T. Adamsen / E. Kara
73'
75'
V. Matoshi / S. Seidl ↕
81'
J. Quarshie / P. Koller ↕
↕ M. Haidara / N. Wurmbrand
84'
⚽P. Dahl · ast. Y. Demir
86'
N. Wurmbrand
89'
90'
A. Vallci
Pre-match prediction
34.95%
Rapid ←
31.34%
X
33.71%
Sturm
we assigned to the actual result (Rapid Vienna) 34.95% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Rapid
1.23
2.01
+0.78
Sturm
1.26
0.79
-0.47
Rapid Vienna dominated by xG (2.01 vs 0.79). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Lask Linz Lask Linz 5 15
2 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 6 14
3 Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 5 12
4 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 5 8
5 WSG Wattens WSG Wattens 5 7
6 TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg 5 6
7 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 5 5
8 Ried Ried 6 5
9 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau 5 5
10 Grazer AK Grazer AK 5 4
11 SCR Altach SCR Altach 5 3
12 Austria Vienna Austria Vienna 5 3
Lineups
Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 4-2-3-1
1 N. Hedl N. Hedl G 6.90
38 J. Horn J. Horn 45' D 6.50
6 S. Raux-Yao S. Raux-Yao D 6.60
55 N. Cvetković N. Cvetković D 6.90
77 B. Bolla B. Bolla D 6.30
30 N. Bajlicz N. Bajlicz M 6.70
29 R. Amané R. Amané 73' M 6.70
43 Moulaye Haïdara Moulaye Haïdara 84' M 6.90
22 Y. Demir Y. Demir 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 7.60
7 M. Tilio M. Tilio 1 ⚽ 61' M 7.00
8 T. Adamsen T. Adamsen 1 👟 73' F 6.90
Bench
47 Amìn-Elias Gröller Amìn-Elias Gröller D
2 Eaden Roka Eaden Roka 51' D 6.90
9 E. Kara E. Kara 23' F 6.30
61 F. Demir F. Demir D
21 L. Schaub L. Schaub M
18 M. Seidl M. Seidl 23' M 6.90
15 Nikolaus Wurmbrand Nikolaus Wurmbrand 12' F 6.50
10 P. Dahl P. Dahl 1 ⚽ 35' F 8.00
25 P. Gartler P. Gartler G
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-2-2-2
22 Ammar Helac Ammar Helac G 6.30
18 Emran Soglo Emran Soglo 45' D 6.50
30 Paul Koller Paul Koller 81' D 6.70
5 A. Vallci A. Vallci D 6.70
28 Jurgen Heil Jurgen Heil D 5.70
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič J. Gorenc Stankovič M 6.30
39 Luca Weinhandl Luca Weinhandl M 6.20
43 Jacob Hödl Jacob Hödl 45' M 5.30
19 S. Seidl S. Seidl 1 👟 75' M 6.70
26 Belmin Beganović Belmin Beganović 1 ⚽ 59' F 7.20
20 S. Jatta S. Jatta F 6.60
Bench
23 Arjan Malić Arjan Malić D
11 Axel Kayombo Axel Kayombo F
41 Elias Lorenz Elias Lorenz G
15 Gizo Mamageishvili Gizo Mamageishvili 51' M 6.90
2 Joshua Quarshie Joshua Quarshie 15' D 6.50
27 Luís Balbo Luís Balbo 51' D 6.60
44 N. Weiper N. Weiper 37' F 6.00
21 Petar Petrović Petar Petrović D
78 Valmir Matoshi Valmir Matoshi 21' M 6.20
Best on the pitch
P. Dahl
P. Dahl
F · Rapid
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots · 7 pass
Y. Demir
Y. Demir
M · Rapid
7.60
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 43 pass
Belmin Beganović
Belmin Beganović
F · Sturm
7.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 12 pass
M. Tilio
M. Tilio
M · Rapid
7.00
1 ⚽
2 shots · 12 pass
M. Seidl
M. Seidl
M · Rapid
6.90
· 14 pass
Gizo Mamageishvili
Gizo Mamageishvili
M · Sturm
6.90
1 shots · 9 pass
Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Hedl G 96 6.90 — — — 51 31% — — —
J. Horn D 45 6.50 — — — 24 24% — — —
S. Raux-Yao D 96 6.60 — — — 47 42% — — —
N. Cvetković D 96 6.90 — — — 38 33% 2 — —
B. Bolla D 96 6.30 — — 1 49 41% — — —
N. Bajlicz M 96 6.70 — — — 54 49% 3 — —
R. Amané M 73 6.70 — — 1 38 31% 3 1 —
Moulaye Haïdara M 84 6.90 — — 2 18 12% — — —
Y. Demir M 96 7.60 1 1 2 43 37% — — —
M. Tilio M 61 7.00 1 — 2 12 7% 3 — —
T. Adamsen F 73 6.90 — 1 1 24 13% — — —
Eaden Roka D 51 6.90 — — — 19 18% — — —
E. Kara F 23 6.30 — — 1 3 2% 1 — —
M. Seidl M 23 6.90 — — — 14 14% 1 — —
Nikolaus Wurmbrand F 12 6.50 — — — — — — 1 —
P. Dahl F 35 8.00 1 — 2 7 5% 2 — —
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Ammar Helac G 96 6.30 — — — 37 27% — — —
Emran Soglo D 45 6.50 — — — 17 11% 1 — —
Paul Koller D 81 6.70 — — 1 45 42% 1 — —
A. Vallci D 90 6.70 — — 1 51 44% 3 — 1
Jurgen Heil D 96 5.70 — — 1 36 28% 1 1 —
J. Gorenc Stankovič M 96 6.30 — — 2 46 32% 3 1 —
Luca Weinhandl M 96 6.20 — — 1 25 20% 2 1 —
Jacob Hödl M 45 5.30 — — — 12 7% — — —
S. Seidl M 75 6.70 — 1 2 23 18% — — —
Belmin Beganović F 59 7.20 1 — 3 12 10% — — —
S. Jatta F 96 6.60 — — — 15 11% 1 — —
Gizo Mamageishvili M 51 6.90 — — 1 9 6% 1 — —
Joshua Quarshie D 15 6.50 — — — 9 6% — — —
Luís Balbo D 51 6.60 — — — 11 6% — — —
N. Weiper F 37 6.00 — — 3 4 2% — — —
Valmir Matoshi M 21 6.20 — — — — — — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
The final score was Rapid Vienna 3–1 Sturm Graz.
What did the model predict before Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
The model assigned 34% probability to a Rapid Vienna win, 31% to a draw, and 33% to an Sturm Graz win.