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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 5 August 30, 2026 17:00
Rapid Vienna
#1 · 27 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Sturm Graz
#4 · 18 pts
Y. Demir 7' (pen.)
M. Tilio (ast. T. Adamsen) 17'
P. Dahl (ast. Y. Demir) 86'
10' (ast. S. Seidl) B. Beganovic
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Rapid Vienna a 34% win probability (draw 31%, Sturm Graz 33%). The final result was Rapid Vienna 3–1 Sturm Graz. In 4 previous meetings, Rapid Vienna have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Sturm Graz.

Match statistics
12
Total shots
15
6
Shots on target
5
2.01
Actual xG
0.79
4
Saves
3
56%
Possession
44%
6
Corners
4
15
Tackles
13
2
🟨 Yellow cards
3
0
🟥 Red cards
1
Match Events
3'
J. Heil
⚽Y. Demir (pen.)
7'
10'
ast. S. Seidl · B. Beganovic⚽
⚽M. Tilio · ast. T. Adamsen
17'
46'
L. Balbo / E. Soglo ↕
↕ J. Horn / E. Roka
46'
46'
G. Mamageishvili / J. Hodl ↕
53'
J. Gorenc Stankovic
59'
N. Weiper / B. Beganovic ↕
R. Amane
59'
↕ M. Tilio / P. Dahl
61'
65'
L. Weinhandl
↕ R. Amane / M. Seidl
73'
↕ T. Adamsen / E. Kara
73'
75'
V. Matoshi / S. Seidl ↕
81'
J. Quarshie / P. Koller ↕
↕ M. Haidara / N. Wurmbrand
84'
⚽P. Dahl · ast. Y. Demir
86'
N. Wurmbrand
89'
90'
A. Vallci
Pre-match prediction
34.95%
Rapid ←
31.34%
X
33.71%
Sturm
we assigned to the actual result (Rapid Vienna) 34.95% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Rapid
1.23
2.01
+0.78
Sturm
1.26
0.79
-0.47
Rapid Vienna dominated by xG (2.01 vs 0.79). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 10 27
2 Red Bull Salzburg Red Bull Salzburg 10 24
3 Lask Linz Lask Linz 10 19
4 Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 10 18
5 Ried Ried 10 15
6 TSV Hartberg TSV Hartberg 10 14
7 WSG Wattens WSG Wattens 10 12
8 Grazer AK Grazer AK 10 10
9 SCR Altach SCR Altach 10 9
10 Austria Lustenau Austria Lustenau 10 8
11 Austria Vienna Austria Vienna 10 7
12 Wolfsberger AC Wolfsberger AC 10 5
Lineups
Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 4-2-3-1
1 N. Hedl N. Hedl G 6.90
38 J. Horn J. Horn 45' D 6.50
6 S. Raux-Yao S. Raux-Yao D 6.60
55 N. Cvetković N. Cvetković D 6.90
77 B. Bolla B. Bolla D 6.30
30 N. Bajlicz N. Bajlicz M 6.70
29 R. Amané R. Amané 73' M 6.70
43 Moulaye Haïdara Moulaye Haïdara 84' M 6.90
22 Y. Demir Y. Demir 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 7.60
7 M. Tilio M. Tilio 1 ⚽ 61' M 7.00
8 T. Adamsen T. Adamsen 1 👟 73' F 6.90
Bench
47 Amìn-Elias Gröller Amìn-Elias Gröller D
2 Eaden Roka Eaden Roka 51' D 6.90
9 E. Kara E. Kara 23' F 6.30
61 F. Demir F. Demir D
21 L. Schaub L. Schaub M
18 M. Seidl M. Seidl 23' M 6.90
15 Nikolaus Wurmbrand Nikolaus Wurmbrand 12' F 6.50
10 P. Dahl P. Dahl 1 ⚽ 35' F 8.00
25 P. Gartler P. Gartler G
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 4-2-2-2
22 A. Helac A. Helac G 6.30
18 Emran Soglo Emran Soglo 45' D 6.50
30 P. Koller P. Koller 81' D 6.70
5 A. Vallci A. Vallci D 6.70
28 J. Heil J. Heil D 5.70
4 J. Gorenc Stankovič J. Gorenc Stankovič M 6.30
39 Luca Weinhandl Luca Weinhandl M 6.20
43 Jacob Peter Hödl Jacob Peter Hödl 45' M 5.30
19 S. Seidl S. Seidl 1 👟 75' M 6.70
26 B. Beganović B. Beganović 1 ⚽ 59' F 7.20
20 S. Jatta S. Jatta F 6.60
Bench
11 A. Kayombo A. Kayombo F
23 A. Malic A. Malic D
41 E. Lorenz E. Lorenz G
15 G. Mamageishvili G. Mamageishvili 51' M 6.90
2 J. Quarshie J. Quarshie 15' D 6.50
27 Luís Balbo Luís Balbo 51' D 6.60
44 N. Weiper N. Weiper 37' F 6.00
21 P. Petrović P. Petrović D
78 V. Matoshi V. Matoshi 21' M 6.20
Best on the pitch
P. Dahl
P. Dahl
F · Rapid
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots · 7 pass
Y. Demir
Y. Demir
M · Rapid
7.60
1 ⚽ 1 👟
2 shots · 43 pass
B. Beganović
B. Beganović
F · Sturm
7.20
1 ⚽
3 shots · 12 pass
M. Tilio
M. Tilio
M · Rapid
7.00
1 ⚽
2 shots · 12 pass
M. Seidl
M. Seidl
M · Rapid
6.90
· 14 pass
G. Mamageishvili
G. Mamageishvili
M · Sturm
6.90
1 shots · 9 pass
Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
N. Hedl G 96 6.90 — — — 51 31% — — —
J. Horn D 45 6.50 — — — 24 24% — — —
S. Raux-Yao D 96 6.60 — — — 47 42% — — —
N. Cvetković D 96 6.90 — — — 38 33% 2 — —
B. Bolla D 96 6.30 — — 1 49 41% — — —
N. Bajlicz M 96 6.70 — — — 54 49% 3 — —
R. Amané M 73 6.70 — — 1 38 31% 3 1 —
Moulaye Haïdara M 84 6.90 — — 2 18 12% — — —
Y. Demir M 96 7.60 1 1 2 43 37% — — —
M. Tilio M 61 7.00 1 — 2 12 7% 3 — —
T. Adamsen F 73 6.90 — 1 1 24 13% — — —
Eaden Roka D 51 6.90 — — — 19 18% — — —
E. Kara F 23 6.30 — — 1 3 2% 1 — —
M. Seidl M 23 6.90 — — — 14 14% 1 — —
Nikolaus Wurmbrand F 12 6.50 — — — — — — 1 —
P. Dahl F 35 8.00 1 — 2 7 5% 2 — —
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
A. Helac G 96 6.30 — — — 37 27% — — —
Emran Soglo D 45 6.50 — — — 17 11% 1 — —
P. Koller D 81 6.70 — — 1 45 42% 1 — —
A. Vallci D 90 6.70 — — 1 51 44% 3 — 1
J. Heil D 96 5.70 — — 1 36 28% 1 1 —
J. Gorenc Stankovič M 96 6.30 — — 2 46 32% 3 1 —
Luca Weinhandl M 96 6.20 — — 1 25 20% 2 1 —
Jacob Peter Hödl M 45 5.30 — — — 12 7% — — —
S. Seidl M 75 6.70 — 1 2 23 18% — — —
B. Beganović F 59 7.20 1 — 3 12 10% — — —
S. Jatta F 96 6.60 — — — 15 11% 1 — —
G. Mamageishvili M 51 6.90 — — 1 9 6% 1 — —
J. Quarshie D 15 6.50 — — — 9 6% — — —
Luís Balbo D 51 6.60 — — — 11 6% — — —
N. Weiper F 37 6.00 — — 3 4 2% — — —
V. Matoshi M 21 6.20 — — — — — — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
The final score was Rapid Vienna 3–1 Sturm Graz.
What did the model predict before Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
The model assigned 34% probability to a Rapid Vienna win, 31% to a draw, and 33% to an Sturm Graz win.