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Rathfriland - Moyola Park

Championship October 24, 2026 16:00
Rathfriland
#12 · 16 pts
vs
Moyola Park
#13 · 15 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
41.64%
Win
Rathfriland
30.64%
Draw
27.72%
Win
Moyola Park
1.11
Expected xG
0.79

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (14.9%)
1X2 Result
1 42%
X 31%
2 28%
Double Chance
1X 72%
X2 58%
12 69%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 56%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Rathfriland a 41% win probability, against 30% for a draw and 27% for Moyola Park. Expected goals are 1.1 for Rathfriland and 0.8 for Moyola Park (total 1.9), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 14.9% probability.

Season Stats

Rathfriland
4W 0D 8L
Moyola Park
4W 2D 6L
Averages per game
1.0
Goals
1.2
1.9
Conceded
2.0
Percentages
75%
O 1.5
75%
58%
O 2.5
58%
50%
BTTS
50%
17%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 12 matches in Championship. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
29%
O 3.5
55%
BTTS
Rathfriland
2W 0D 4L · at home
Moyola Park
2W 1D 2L · away
0.8
gls/g
1.4
1.7
Conceded
2.2
33%
Win %
40%
33%
Win or Draw
60%
83%
O 1.5
80%
50%
O 2.5
60%
17%
O 3.5
40%
50%
BTTS
60%
17%
Clean Sht
20%
33%
Failed to Score
20%
last 6
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Rathfriland Moyola Park →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 15.0% 11.8% 4.7% 1.2% 0.2% —
1 16.6% 13.1% 5.2% 1.4% 0.3% —
2 9.2% 7.3% 2.9% 0.8% 0.1% —
3 3.4% 2.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% —
4 0.9% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% — —
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Rathfriland Rathfriland
W Ballinamallard United 0–1
D Strabane Athletic 2–2
W Dundela 0–1
W Armagh City 2–1
W H&W Welders 1–3
Home clean sheet (120 days) 22%
Moyola Park Moyola Park
L Newry City AFC 1–2
D Institute 1–1
L Newington Youth 2–3
W Loughgall 1–2
L Glenavon FC 0–3
Away clean sheet (120 days) 22%

Playing profile

Rathfriland Rathfriland
Attack
30
Defence
72
Form
50
Moyola Park Moyola Park
Attack
28
Defence
52
Form
34
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Annagh United Annagh United 15 34
2 Glenavon FC Glenavon FC 13 27
3 Newington Youth Newington Youth 13 26
4 Newry City AFC Newry City AFC 15 23
5 Institute Institute 13 21
6 Ballinamallard United Ballinamallard United 15 21
7 Queen's University Queen's University 14 20
8 Warrenpoint Town Warrenpoint Town 12 18
9 Ards Ards 14 17
10 Loughgall Loughgall 14 17
11 H&W Welders H&W Welders 13 16
12 Rathfriland Rathfriland 14 16
13 Moyola Park Moyola Park 14 15
14 Dundela Dundela 12 11
15 Strabane Athletic Strabane Athletic 15 11
16 Armagh City Armagh City 14 9
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Rathfriland vs Moyola Park?
The model gives Rathfriland a 41% win probability, 30% for a draw, and 27% for an Moyola Park win.
How many goals are expected in Rathfriland vs Moyola Park?
Expected goals: Rathfriland 1.1, Moyola Park 0.8 (total 1.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in Rathfriland vs Moyola Park?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.9%.