Conference League
· Quarter-finals
April 09, 2026 18:45
I. Akhomach
(ast. A. Garcia)
2'
U. Lopez
45'+2
I. Palazon
74'
(pen.)
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave AEK Athens FC a 38% win probability (draw 28%, Rayo Vallecano 32%). The final result was Rayo Vallecano 3–0 AEK Athens FC. In 1 previous meetings, Rayo Vallecano have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for AEK Athens FC.
Match statistics
7
Total shots
5
4
Shots on target
2
2.31
Actual xG
1.14
1
Saves
1
45%
Possession
55%
1
Corners
8
32
Tackles
23
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽I. Akhomach
· ast. A. Garcia
2'
17'
M. Nikolic
20'
⚽U. Lopez
45'+2
46'
R. Marin
/
P. Mantalos
U. Lopez
/ P. Diaz
55'
I. Akhomach
/ Alemao
56'
61'
B. Varga
P. Diaz
65'
A. Garcia
/ Pacha
66'
71'
Zini
/
B. Varga
71'
M. Gacinovic
/
R. Pereyra
72'
F. Relvas
⚽I. Palazon
(pen.)
74'
I. Palazon
/ S. Camello
80'
J. de Frutos
/ O. Valentin
80'
87'
D. Kutesa
/
A. Koita
88'
L. Jovic
Pre-match prediction
32.99%
Rayo ←
28.49%
X
38.51%
AEK
we assigned to the actual result (Rayo Vallecano)
32.99%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.14
2.31
+1.17
1.30
1.14
-0.16
Rayo Vallecano dominated by xG (2.31 vs 1.14).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
13
Augusto Batalla
G
Augusto Batalla
G
3
D
5
Luiz Felipe
D
24
F. Lejeune
D
F. Lejeune
D
2
A. Rațiu
D
A. Rațiu
D
6
P. Ciss
M
P. Ciss
M
17
Unai López
1 ⚽
56'
M
Unai López
1 ⚽
56'
M
18
Álvaro García
1 👟
66'
M
Álvaro García
1 👟
66'
M
7
Isi Palazón
1 ⚽
80'
M
Isi Palazón
1 ⚽
80'
M
12
Ilias Akhomach
1 ⚽
55'
M
Ilias Akhomach
1 ⚽
55'
M
19
Jorge de Frutos
80'
F
Jorge de Frutos
80'
F
Bench
22
A. Espino
24'
D
A. Espino
24'
D
9
Alemão
34'
F
Alemão
34'
F
1
Dani Cárdenas
G
Dani Cárdenas
G
15
Gerard Gumbau
M
Gerard Gumbau
M
32
Nobel Mendy
D
23
Óscar Valentín
10'
M
Óscar Valentín
10'
M
4
Pedro Díaz
35'
M
Pedro Díaz
35'
M
10
Sergio Camello
10'
F
Sergio Camello
10'
F
1
G
3
S. Pilios
D
S. Pilios
D
44
Filipe Relvas
D
Filipe Relvas
D
2
D
12
L. Rota
D
L. Rota
D
37
Roberto Pereyra
71'
M
Roberto Pereyra
71'
M
13
Orbelín Pineda
M
Orbelín Pineda
M
20
P. Mantalos
45'
M
P. Mantalos
45'
M
11
A. Koita
87'
M
A. Koita
87'
M
9
L. Jović
F
L. Jović
F
25
B. Varga
71'
F
B. Varga
71'
F
Bench
7
D. Kutesa
9'
M
D. Kutesa
9'
M
21
D. Vida
D
D. Vida
D
29
J. Penrice
D
J. Penrice
D
8
M. Gaćinović
19'
M
M. Gaćinović
19'
M
15
M. Todorski
D
M. Todorski
D
18
R. Marin
45'
M
R. Marin
45'
M
90
Zini
19'
F
Zini
19'
F
Best on the pitch
P. Ciss
M · Rayo
8.70
· 40 pass
Luiz Felipe
D · Rayo
8.20
· 27 pass
Ilias Akhomach
M · Rayo
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 15 pass
Augusto Batalla
G · Rayo
7.90
· 31 pass
Unai López
M · Rayo
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 27 pass
Orbelín Pineda
M · AEK
7.30
· 53 pass
Rayo Vallecano — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Augusto Batalla | G | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | — | 31 | 22% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 26% | 4 | — | — | |
| Luiz Felipe | D | 90 | 8.20 | — | — | — | 27 | 27% | 4 | — | — |
| F. Lejeune | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 26% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Rațiu | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 35 | 27% | 5 | — | — |
| P. Ciss | M | 90 | 8.70 | — | — | — | 40 | 31% | 4 | — | — |
| Unai López | M | 56 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 27 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| Álvaro García | M | 66 | 7.00 | — | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| Isi Palazón | M | 80 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 25 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Ilias Akhomach | M | 55 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 15 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Jorge de Frutos | F | 80 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 10 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Espino | D | 24 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | 1 | — | — |
| Alemão | F | 34 | 5.90 | — | — | 2 | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Óscar Valentín | M | 10 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 11 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| Pedro Díaz | M | 35 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Sergio Camello | F | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 4% | — | — | — |
AEK Athens FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 13% | — | — | — | |
| S. Pilios | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 33 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| Filipe Relvas | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 49 | 47% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 47 | 41% | 4 | — | — | |
| L. Rota | D | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 43 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| Roberto Pereyra | M | 71 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 27 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Orbelín Pineda | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 53 | 43% | 5 | — | — |
| P. Mantalos | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 28 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Koita | M | 87 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 13% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Jović | F | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 21 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
| B. Varga | F | 71 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 4% | — | 1 | — |
| D. Kutesa | M | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| M. Gaćinović | M | 19 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 7 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Marin | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 33 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| Zini | F | 19 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs AEK Athens FC?
The final score was Rayo Vallecano 3–0 AEK Athens FC.
What did the model predict before Rayo Vallecano vs AEK Athens FC?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Rayo Vallecano win, 28% to a draw, and 38% to an AEK Athens FC win.