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Conference League · Quarter-finals April 09, 2026 18:45
Rayo Vallecano
#5 · 13 pts
3 – 0
Final score
AEK Athens FC
#3 · 13 pts
I. Akhomach (ast. A. Garcia) 2'
U. Lopez 45'+2
I. Palazon 74' (pen.)

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave AEK Athens FC a 38% win probability (draw 28%, Rayo Vallecano 32%). The final result was Rayo Vallecano 3–0 AEK Athens FC. In 1 previous meetings, Rayo Vallecano have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for AEK Athens FC.

Match statistics
7
Total shots
5
4
Shots on target
2
2.31
Actual xG
1.14
1
Saves
1
45%
Possession
55%
1
Corners
8
32
Tackles
23
1
🟨 Yellow cards
3
Match Events
⚽I. Akhomach · ast. A. Garcia
2'
17'
M. Nikolic
20'
⚽U. Lopez
45'+2
46'
R. Marin / P. Mantalos ↕
↕ U. Lopez / P. Diaz
55'
↕ I. Akhomach / Alemao
56'
61'
B. Varga
P. Diaz
65'
↕ A. Garcia / Pacha
66'
71'
Zini / B. Varga ↕
71'
M. Gacinovic / R. Pereyra ↕
72'
F. Relvas
⚽I. Palazon (pen.)
74'
↕ I. Palazon / S. Camello
80'
↕ J. de Frutos / O. Valentin
80'
87'
D. Kutesa / A. Koita ↕
88'
L. Jovic
Pre-match prediction
32.99%
Rayo ←
28.49%
X
38.51%
AEK
we assigned to the actual result (Rayo Vallecano) 32.99% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Rayo
1.14
2.31
+1.17
AEK
1.30
1.14
-0.16
Rayo Vallecano dominated by xG (2.31 vs 1.14). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Strasbourg Strasbourg 6 16
2 Raków Częstochowa Raków Częstochowa 6 14
3 AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC 6 13
4 Sparta Praha Sparta Praha 6 13
5 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 6 13
6 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 6 13
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 6 13
8 AEK Larnaca AEK Larnaca 6 12
9 Lausanne Lausanne 6 11
10 Crystal Palace Crystal Palace 6 10
11 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 6 10
12 Samsunspor Samsunspor 6 10
13 Celje Celje 6 10
14 AZ Alkmaar AZ Alkmaar 6 10
15 Fiorentina Fiorentina 6 9
16 HNK Rijeka HNK Rijeka 6 9
17 Jagiellonia Jagiellonia 6 9
18 Omonia Nicosia Omonia Nicosia 6 8
19 FC Noah FC Noah 6 8
20 Drita Drita 6 8
21 KuPS KuPS 6 7
22 Shkendija Shkendija 6 7
23 Zrinjski Zrinjski 6 7
24 Sigma Olomouc Sigma Olomouc 6 7
25 Universitatea Craiova Universitatea Craiova 6 7
26 Lincoln Red Imps FC Lincoln Red Imps FC 6 7
27 Dynamo Kyiv Dynamo Kyiv 6 6
28 Legia Warszawa Legia Warszawa 6 6
29 Slovan Bratislava Slovan Bratislava 6 6
30 Breidablik Breidablik 6 5
31 Shamrock Rovers Shamrock Rovers 6 4
32 BK Hacken BK Hacken 6 3
33 Hamrun Spartans Hamrun Spartans 6 3
34 Shelbourne Shelbourne 6 2
35 Aberdeen Aberdeen 6 2
36 Rapid Vienna Rapid Vienna 6 1
Lineups
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 4-2-3-1
13 Augusto Batalla Augusto Batalla G 7.90
3
D 7.20
5
Luiz Felipe D 8.20
24 Florian Lejeune Florian Lejeune D 7.20
2 A. Rațiu A. Rațiu D 7.20
6 Pathé Ismaël Ciss Pathé Ismaël Ciss M 8.70
17 Unai López Unai López 1 ⚽ 56' M 7.30
18 Álvaro García Álvaro García 1 👟 66' M 7.00
7 Isi Palazón Isi Palazón 1 ⚽ 80' M 7.20
12
I. Akhomach 1 ⚽ 55' M 7.90
19 Jorge de Frutos Jorge de Frutos 80' F 6.30
Bench
9 Alemão Alemão 34' F 5.90
1 Dani Cárdenas Dani Cárdenas G
15 Gerard Gumbau Gerard Gumbau M
32 Nobel Mendy Nobel Mendy D
23 Óscar Valentín Óscar Valentín 10' M 6.60
22 Pacha Pacha 24' D 6.70
4 Pedro Díaz Pedro Díaz 35' M 6.70
10 Sergio Camello Sergio Camello 10' F 6.30
AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC 4-4-2
1
G 6.30
3 Stavros Pilios Stavros Pilios D 6.60
44 Filipe Relvas Filipe Relvas D 6.50
2
D 7.20
12 L. Rota L. Rota D 6.00
37 Roberto Pereyra Roberto Pereyra 71' M 6.30
13 Orbelín Pineda Orbelín Pineda M 7.30
20 Petros Mantalos Petros Mantalos 45' M 6.50
11 Aboubakary Koita Aboubakary Koita 87' M 6.30
9 Luka Jović Luka Jović F 6.20
25 Barnabás Varga Barnabás Varga 71' F 6.00
Bench
7 Dereck Kutesa Dereck Kutesa 9' M 6.30
21 Domagoj Vida Domagoj Vida D
29 James Penrice James Penrice D
15 Martin Georgiev Martin Georgiev D
8
M. Gacinovic 19' M 6.50
18 R. Marin R. Marin 45' M 6.50
90 Zini Zini 19' F 6.50
Best on the pitch
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
Pathé Ismaël Ciss
M · Rayo
8.70
· 40 pass
Luiz Felipe
D · Rayo
8.20
· 27 pass
I. Akhomach
M · Rayo
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots · 15 pass
Augusto Batalla
Augusto Batalla
G · Rayo
7.90
· 31 pass
Unai López
Unai López
M · Rayo
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots · 27 pass
Orbelín Pineda
Orbelín Pineda
M · AEK
7.30
· 53 pass
Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Augusto Batalla G 90 7.90 — — — 31 22% — — —
D 90 7.20 — — — 34 26% 4 — —
Luiz Felipe D 90 8.20 — — — 27 27% 4 — —
Florian Lejeune D 90 7.20 — — — 32 26% 2 — —
A. Rațiu D 90 7.20 — — — 35 27% 5 — —
Pathé Ismaël Ciss M 90 8.70 — — — 40 31% 4 — —
Unai López M 56 7.30 1 — 1 27 25% 1 — —
Álvaro García M 66 7.00 — 1 1 10 5% 2 — —
Isi Palazón M 80 7.20 1 — 1 25 19% 2 — —
I. Akhomach M 55 7.90 1 — 2 15 13% 1 — —
Jorge de Frutos F 80 6.30 — — — 10 6% 1 — —
Alemão F 34 5.90 — — 2 5 3% — — —
Óscar Valentín M 10 6.60 — — — 11 10% 3 — —
Pacha D 24 6.70 — — — 6 4% 1 — —
Pedro Díaz M 35 6.70 — — — 13 12% 2 1 —
Sergio Camello F 10 6.30 — — — 9 4% — — —
AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 6.30 — — — 23 13% — — —
Stavros Pilios D 90 6.60 — — — 33 28% 2 — —
Filipe Relvas D 90 6.50 — — — 49 47% 1 1 —
D 90 7.20 — — — 47 41% 4 — —
L. Rota D 90 6.00 — — — 43 40% 2 — —
Roberto Pereyra M 71 6.30 — — — 27 23% 2 — —
Orbelín Pineda M 90 7.30 — — — 53 43% 5 — —
Petros Mantalos M 45 6.50 — — — 28 20% 2 — —
Aboubakary Koita M 87 6.30 — — 1 16 13% 3 — —
Luka Jović F 90 6.20 — — 1 21 11% — 1 —
Barnabás Varga F 71 6.00 — — 1 11 4% — 1 —
Dereck Kutesa M 9 6.30 — — — 4 3% — — —
M. Gacinovic M 19 6.50 — — — 7 5% 1 — —
R. Marin M 45 6.50 — — 1 33 24% 1 — —
Zini F 19 6.50 — — 1 6 5% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Rayo Vallecano vs AEK Athens FC?
The final score was Rayo Vallecano 3–0 AEK Athens FC.
What did the model predict before Rayo Vallecano vs AEK Athens FC?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Rayo Vallecano win, 28% to a draw, and 38% to an AEK Athens FC win.