Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29 April 11, 2026 15:30 Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

RB Leipzig

#5 · 12 pts

1 – 0

Final score

Borussia Mönchengladbach

#18 · 3 pts

✓Model correct — prediction RB Leipzig

Y. Diomande (ast. C. Baumgartner) 80'

The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave RB Leipzig a 71% win probability (draw 16%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 12%). The final result was RB Leipzig 1–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach. In 2 previous meetings, RB Leipzig have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Match statistics

17

Total shots

10

11

Shots on target

3

2.25

Actual xG

1.79

2

Saves

11

52%

Possession

48%

11

Corners

4

15

Tackles

20

4

🟨 Yellow cards

1

Match Events

Ridle Baku

33'

33'

H. Bolin / L. Ullrich ↕

35'

Joseph Scally

Nicolas Seiwald

47'

62'

F. C. Chiarodia / K. Diks ↕

↕ Romulo Cardoso / J. Bakayoko

66'

↕ A. Nusa / A. Ouedraogo

66'

Xaver Schlager

78'

↕ N. Seiwald / B. Gruda

78'

↕ R. Baku / B. Henrichs

78'

⚽Y. Diomande · ast. C. Baumgartner

80'

Brajan Gruda

82'

85'

K. Stoger / J. Castrop ↕

85'

S. Machino / Y. Engelhardt ↕

85'

W. Mohya / F. Honorat ↕

↕ Y. Diomande / M. Finkgrafe

90'+2

Pre-match prediction

71.13%

RB ←

16.09%

X

12.77%

Borussia

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (RB Leipzig) 71.13% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Δ

RB

2.66

2.25

-0.41

Borussia

1.05

1.79

+0.74

RB Leipzig dominated by xG (2.25 vs 1.79). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Bayern München	7	17
2	Borussia Dortmund	7	17
3	SC Freiburg	7	13
4	Bayer Leverkusen	7	13
5	RB Leipzig	7	12
6	Werder Bremen	7	12
7	FSV Mainz 05	7	10
8	SV Elversberg	7	10
9	FC Augsburg	7	9
10	1899 Hoffenheim	7	9
11	Hamburger SV	7	9
12	1. FC Köln	7	8
13	SC Paderborn 07	7	8
14	Eintracht Frankfurt	7	8
15	VfB Stuttgart	7	6
16	FC Schalke 04	7	6
17	Union Berlin	7	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	7	3

Lineups

RB Leipzig 4-3-3

26

G 7.70

22 D. Raum D 8.30

5 E. Bitshiabu D 7.00

4 W. Orbán D 8.30

17 R. Baku 78' D 7.20

24 X. Schlager M 6.90

13 N. Seiwald 78' M 6.90

14 C. Baumgartner 1 👟 M 7.20

7 A. Nusa 66' F 6.70

40 Rômulo 66' F 5.60

49 Y. Diomande 1 ⚽ 89' F 9.70

Bench

20 A. Ouédraogo 24' M 6.60

10 B. Gruda 12' F 7.00

16 L. Klostermann D

35 Max Finkgräfe 1' D

27 T. Gomis F

Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3-3

33 M. Nicolas G 8.90

26 L. Ullrich 33' D 6.60

4 K. Diks 62' D 7.20

30 N. Elvedi D 8.00

29 J. Scally D 6.20

6 Y. Engelhardt 85' M 6.60

16 P. Sander M 6.70

27 R. Reitz M 7.30

17 J. Castrop 85' F 6.60

15 H. Tabaković F 7.30

9 F. Honorat 85' F 6.90

Bench

2 F. Chiarodia 28' D 7.20

13 G. Reyna M

38 H. Bolin 57' M 6.90

7 K. Stöger 12' M 6.30

18 S. Machino 12' F 6.30

36 W. Mohya 12' M 6.50

Best on the pitch

Y. Diomande

F · RB

9.70

1 ⚽

1 shots · 48 pass

M. Nicolas

G · Borussia

8.90

· 40 pass

D. Raum

D · RB

8.30

3 shots · 38 pass

W. Orbán

D · RB

8.30

· 56 pass

N. Elvedi

D · Borussia

8.00

· 64 pass

G · RB

7.70

· 33 pass

RB Leipzig — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	7.70	—	—	—	33	24%	—	—	—
D. Raum	D	90	8.30	—	—	3	38	30%	2	—	—
E. Bitshiabu	D	90	7.00	—	—	—	51	47%	—	—	—
W. Orbán	D	90	8.30	—	—	—	56	47%	3	—	—
R. Baku	D	78	7.20	—	—	3	43	38%	1	1	—
X. Schlager	M	90	6.90	—	—	1	39	34%	1	1	—
N. Seiwald	M	78	6.90	—	—	1	42	41%	3	1	—
C. Baumgartner	M	90	7.20	—	1	3	28	20%	—	—	—
A. Nusa	F	66	6.70	—	—	—	16	10%	1	—	—
Rômulo	F	66	5.60	—	—	4	15	13%	1	—	—
Y. Diomande	F	89	9.70	1	—	1	48	37%	2	—	—
A. Ouédraogo	M	24	6.60	—	—	1	10	9%	—	—	—
B. Gruda	F	12	7.00	—	—	—	3	2%	1	1	—
Max Finkgräfe	D	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Borussia Mönchengladbach — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Nicolas	G	90	8.90	—	—	—	40	27%	—	—	—
L. Ullrich	D	33	6.60	—	—	1	15	12%	1	—	—
K. Diks	D	62	7.20	—	—	—	39	36%	1	—	—
N. Elvedi	D	90	8.00	—	—	—	64	56%	1	—	—
J. Scally	D	90	6.20	—	—	—	32	21%	1	1	—
Y. Engelhardt	M	85	6.60	—	—	—	36	29%	1	—	—
P. Sander	M	90	6.70	—	—	—	49	40%	2	—	—
R. Reitz	M	90	7.30	—	—	2	37	28%	1	—	—
J. Castrop	F	85	6.60	—	—	3	26	14%	2	—	—
H. Tabaković	F	90	7.30	—	—	2	23	14%	1	—	—
F. Honorat	F	85	6.90	—	—	—	17	16%	1	—	—
F. Chiarodia	D	28	7.20	—	—	1	15	13%	6	—	—
H. Bolin	M	57	6.90	—	—	1	10	6%	2	—	—
K. Stöger	M	12	6.30	—	—	—	7	5%	—	—	—
S. Machino	F	12	6.30	—	—	—	2	2%	—	—	—
W. Mohya	M	12	6.50	—	—	—	4	3%	—	—	—