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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29 April 11, 2026 15:30 Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
RB Leipzig
#4 · 6 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Borussia Mönchengladbach
#17 · 0 pts
✓Model correct — prediction RB Leipzig
Y. Diomande (ast. C. Baumgartner) 80'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave RB Leipzig a 71% win probability (draw 16%, Borussia Mönchengladbach 12%). The final result was RB Leipzig 1–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach. In 2 previous meetings, RB Leipzig have won 1 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Borussia Mönchengladbach.

Match statistics
17
Total shots
10
11
Shots on target
3
2.25
Actual xG
1.79
2
Saves
11
52%
Possession
48%
11
Corners
4
15
Tackles
20
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Ridle Baku
33'
33'
H. Bolin / L. Ullrich ↕
35'
Joseph Scally
Nicolas Seiwald
47'
62'
F. C. Chiarodia / K. Diks ↕
↕ Romulo Cardoso / J. Bakayoko
66'
↕ A. Nusa / A. Ouedraogo
66'
Xaver Schlager
78'
↕ N. Seiwald / B. Gruda
78'
↕ R. Baku / B. Henrichs
78'
⚽Y. Diomande · ast. C. Baumgartner
80'
Brajan Gruda
82'
85'
K. Stoger / J. Castrop ↕
85'
S. Machino / Y. Engelhardt ↕
85'
W. Mohya / F. Honorat ↕
↕ Y. Diomande / M. Finkgrafe
90'+2
Pre-match prediction
71.13%
RB ←
16.09%
X
12.77%
Borussia
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (RB Leipzig) 71.13% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
RB
2.66
2.25
-0.41
Borussia
1.05
1.79
+0.74
RB Leipzig dominated by xG (2.25 vs 1.79). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 3 9
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3 9
3 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 3 7
4 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 3 6
5 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 2 6
6 Bayern München Bayern München 2 4
7 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3 4
8 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3 4
9 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 3 4
10 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 3 4
11 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 3 4
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 3 4
13 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 3 3
14 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 3 3
15 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 3 1
16 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3 1
17 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 0
18 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 3 0
Lineups
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-3-3
26
G 7.70
22 D. Raum D. Raum D 8.30
5 E. Bitshiabu E. Bitshiabu D 7.00
4 W. Orbán W. Orbán D 8.30
17 R. Baku R. Baku 78' D 7.20
24 X. Schlager X. Schlager M 6.90
13 N. Seiwald N. Seiwald 78' M 6.90
14 C. Baumgartner C. Baumgartner 1 👟 M 7.20
7 A. Nusa A. Nusa 66' F 6.70
40 Rômulo Rômulo 66' F 5.60
49 Y. Diomande Y. Diomande 1 ⚽ 89' F 9.70
Bench
20 A. Ouédraogo A. Ouédraogo 24' M 6.60
10 B. Gruda B. Gruda 12' F 7.00
16 L. Klostermann L. Klostermann D
35 Max Finkgräfe Max Finkgräfe 1' D
27 T. Gomis T. Gomis F
Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3-3
33 M. Nicolas M. Nicolas G 8.90
26 L. Ullrich L. Ullrich 33' D 6.60
4 K. Diks K. Diks 62' D 7.20
30 N. Elvedi N. Elvedi D 8.00
29 J. Scally J. Scally D 6.20
6 Y. Engelhardt Y. Engelhardt 85' M 6.60
16 P. Sander P. Sander M 6.70
27 R. Reitz R. Reitz M 7.30
17 J. Castrop J. Castrop 85' F 6.60
15 H. Tabaković H. Tabaković F 7.30
9 F. Honorat F. Honorat 85' F 6.90
Bench
2 F. Chiarodia F. Chiarodia 28' D 7.20
13 G. Reyna G. Reyna M
38 H. Bolin H. Bolin 57' M 6.90
7 K. Stöger K. Stöger 12' M 6.30
18 S. Machino S. Machino 12' F 6.30
36 W. Mohya W. Mohya 12' M 6.50
Best on the pitch
Y. Diomande
Y. Diomande
F · RB
9.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 48 pass
M. Nicolas
M. Nicolas
G · Borussia
8.90
· 40 pass
D. Raum
D. Raum
D · RB
8.30
3 shots · 38 pass
W. Orbán
W. Orbán
D · RB
8.30
· 56 pass
N. Elvedi
N. Elvedi
D · Borussia
8.00
· 64 pass
G · RB
7.70
· 33 pass
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 90 7.70 — — — 33 24% — — —
D. Raum D 90 8.30 — — 3 38 30% 2 — —
E. Bitshiabu D 90 7.00 — — — 51 47% — — —
W. Orbán D 90 8.30 — — — 56 47% 3 — —
R. Baku D 78 7.20 — — 3 43 38% 1 1 —
X. Schlager M 90 6.90 — — 1 39 34% 1 1 —
N. Seiwald M 78 6.90 — — 1 42 41% 3 1 —
C. Baumgartner M 90 7.20 — 1 3 28 20% — — —
A. Nusa F 66 6.70 — — — 16 10% 1 — —
Rômulo F 66 5.60 — — 4 15 13% 1 — —
Y. Diomande F 89 9.70 1 — 1 48 37% 2 — —
A. Ouédraogo M 24 6.60 — — 1 10 9% — — —
B. Gruda F 12 7.00 — — — 3 2% 1 1 —
Max Finkgräfe D 1 — — — — — — — — —
Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
M. Nicolas G 90 8.90 — — — 40 27% — — —
L. Ullrich D 33 6.60 — — 1 15 12% 1 — —
K. Diks D 62 7.20 — — — 39 36% 1 — —
N. Elvedi D 90 8.00 — — — 64 56% 1 — —
J. Scally D 90 6.20 — — — 32 21% 1 1 —
Y. Engelhardt M 85 6.60 — — — 36 29% 1 — —
P. Sander M 90 6.70 — — — 49 40% 2 — —
R. Reitz M 90 7.30 — — 2 37 28% 1 — —
J. Castrop F 85 6.60 — — 3 26 14% 2 — —
H. Tabaković F 90 7.30 — — 2 23 14% 1 — —
F. Honorat F 85 6.90 — — — 17 16% 1 — —
F. Chiarodia D 28 7.20 — — 1 15 13% 6 — —
H. Bolin M 57 6.90 — — 1 10 6% 2 — —
K. Stöger M 12 6.30 — — — 7 5% — — —
S. Machino F 12 6.30 — — — 2 2% — — —
W. Mohya M 12 6.50 — — — 4 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
The final score was RB Leipzig 1–0 Borussia Mönchengladbach.
What did the model predict before RB Leipzig vs Borussia Mönchengladbach?
The model assigned 71% probability to a RB Leipzig win, 16% to a draw, and 12% to an Borussia Mönchengladbach win.