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RB Leipzig - Hamburger SV

Bundesliga September 13, 2026 15:30 Unilever Stadium Shintomi, Shintomi
RB Leipzig
#10 · 3 pts
vs
Hamburger SV
#17 · 0 pts
Weather at kick-off ⛅ Partly cloudy 31.8°C 💨 19 km/h 🌧️ 52% · Shintomi
⚡ Pre-match analysis
42.17%
Win
RB Leipzig
29.3%
Draw
28.53%
Win
Hamburger SV
3.57
Expected xG
1.0

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (8.51%)
1X2 Result
1 42%
X 29%
2 29%
Double Chance
1X 72%
X2 58%
12 71%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 77%
Over 2.5 56%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives RB Leipzig a 42% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 28% for Hamburger SV. Expected goals are 3.6 for RB Leipzig and 1.0 for Hamburger SV (total 4.6), with a 77% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 8.51% probability. In 2 previous meetings, RB Leipzig have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Hamburger SV.

Season Stats

RB Leipzig
9W 2D 4L
Hamburger SV
3W 4D 8L
Averages per game
2.0
Goals
1.1
1.5
Conceded
2.0
6.7
Shots OT
3.8
5.5
Corners
3.1
56%
Poss.
43%
Percentages
87%
O 1.5
93%
87%
O 2.5
60%
73%
BTTS
73%
20%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Bundesliga. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
40%
O 3.5
65%
BTTS
RB Leipzig
6W 2D 2L · at home
Hamburger SV
3W 3D 4L · away
2.2
gls/g
1.1
1.4
Conceded
1.6
60%
Win %
30%
80%
Win or Draw
60%
90%
O 1.5
90%
90%
O 2.5
50%
50%
O 3.5
30%
70%
BTTS
60%
30%
Clean Sht
20%
0%
Failed to Score
30%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ RB Leipzig Hamburger SV →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% — —
1 3.7% 3.7% 1.8% 0.6% 0.2% —
2 6.6% 6.6% 3.3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%
3 7.8% 7.8% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
4 7.0% 7.0% 3.5% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1%
5 5.0% 5.0% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% —

Recent form

RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
L Werder Bremen 3–1
W Borussia Mönchengladbach 3–0
L SC Freiburg 4–1
W FC St. Pauli 2–1
L Bayer Leverkusen 4–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 51%
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV
L FSV Mainz 05 0–5
L Borussia Dortmund 2–0
D Bayer Leverkusen 1–1
W SC Freiburg 3–2
W Eintracht Frankfurt 1–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 22%

Playing profile

RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
Attack
36
Defence
38
Form
38
Hamburger SV Hamburger SV
Attack
19
Defence
28
Form
20
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

2
RB Leipzig
0
Draw
0
Hamburger SV
1 Mar 2026 Bundesliga 2–1
18 Oct 2025 Bundesliga 2–1

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 3 9
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 3 9
3 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 3 7
4 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 2 6
5 Bayern München Bayern München 2 4
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3 4
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 3 4
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 3 4
9 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 3 4
10 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 2 3
11 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 3 3
12 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2 3
13 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 3 3
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 2 3
15 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 3 1
16 Union Berlin Union Berlin 3 1
17 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 2 0
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 3 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
The model gives RB Leipzig a 42% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 28% for an Hamburger SV win.
How many goals are expected in RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
Expected goals: RB Leipzig 3.6, Hamburger SV 1.0 (total 4.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 77%.
What is the most likely score in RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.51%.