RB Leipzig 2–3 Manchester City — pre-match prediction — Champions League — November 04, 2026

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Champions League · League Stage - 4 November 04, 2026 21:00 Red Bull Arena, Leipzig

RB Leipzig

#30 · 3 pts

2 – 3

Final score

Manchester City

#7 · 9 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Manchester City

Ridle Baku (ast. Brajan Gruda) 49'

Antonio Nusa (ast. Christopher Nkunku) 61'

(og) 37' Castello Junior Lukeba

58' (ast. Iliman Ndiaye) Enzo Fernández

78' (ast. Elliot Anderson) Erling Haaland

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Manchester City a 56% win probability (draw 19%, RB Leipzig 24%). The final result was RB Leipzig 2–3 Manchester City.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

0.84

Actual xG

2.26

Saves

36%

Possession

64%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

Christoph Baumgartner

17'

Ridle Baku

33'

37'

(og) Castello Junior Lukeba⚽

Neil El Aynaoui

48'

⚽Ridle Baku · ast. Brajan Gruda

49'

↕ Christoph Baumgartner / Christopher Nkunku

57'

58'

ast. Iliman Ndiaye · Enzo Fernández⚽

⚽Antonio Nusa · ast. Christopher Nkunku

61'

64'

Jeremy Doku / Phil Foden ↕

↕ Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz / Tidiam Gomis

67'

↕ Antonio Nusa / Rocco Reitz

73'

↕ Ridle Baku / Benjamin Henrichs

74'

↕ Neil El Aynaoui / Nicolas Seiwald

74'

David Raum

77'

78'

ast. Elliot Anderson · Erling Haaland⚽

79'

Rúben Dias / Matheus Nunes ↕

83'

Ayyoub Bouaddi / Elliot Anderson ↕

83'

Mateo Kovačić / Enzo Fernández ↕

83'

Allan Andrade Elias / Iliman Ndiaye ↕

88'

Jeremy Doku

90'+4

Abdukodir Khusanov

Pre-match prediction

24.09%

19.03%

56.87%

Manchester ←

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Manchester City) 56.87% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

3.80

0.84

-2.96

Manchester

3.07

2.26

-0.81

Manchester City dominated by xG (2.26 vs 0.84). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	12
2	Real Madrid	4	12
3	Arsenal	4	10
4	Como	4	9
5	Barcelona	4	9
6	Aston Villa	4	9
7	Manchester City	4	9
8	Liverpool	4	9
9	Club Brugge KV	4	9
10	Sporting CP	4	9
11	Real Betis	4	9
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	9
13	Bayern München	4	8
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	7
15	Inter	4	6
16	Lask Linz	4	6
17	Manchester United	4	6
18	Galatasaray	4	6
19	Fenerbahçe	4	5
20	AS Roma	4	4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	4
22	Viking	4	4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	4
26	FC Porto	4	3
27	Napoli	4	3
28	Villarreal	4	3
29	AEK Athens FC	4	3
30	RB Leipzig	4	3
31	Sabah FA	4	3
32	Feyenoord	4	3
33	Lens	4	3
34	Slavia Praha	4	1
35	Lille	4	1
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0

Lineups

RB Leipzig 4-3-3

M. Vandevoordt G 5.62

D. Raum D 6.43

C. Lukeba 1 ⚽ D 5.32

W. Orbán D 6.14

R. Baku 1 ⚽ 74' D 6.27

E. Banzuzi M 6.11

C. Baumgartner 57' M 5.96

N. El Aynaoui 74' M 6.05

A. Nusa 1 ⚽ 73' F 8.20

Rômulo 67' F 6.33

B. Gruda 1 👟 F 6.82

Bench

A. Koné D 0.00

A. MaksimoviÄ M 0.00

B. Henrichs 16' D 5.84

C. Nkunku 1 👟 33' F 6.59

J. Bakayoko F 0.00

L. Klostermann D 0.00

M. Estève D 0.00

N. Seiwald 16' M 5.77

Ø. Nyland G 0.00

R. Reitz 17' M 5.87

T. Gomis 23' F 6.24

Manchester City 4-1-4-1

G. Donnarumma G 7.16

N. O'Reilly D 6.15

M. Guéhi D 6.51

A. Khusanov D 6.31

Matheus Nunes 79' D 6.38

E. Anderson 1 👟 83' M 7.70

I. Ndiaye 1 👟 83' M 7.70

R. Cherki M 6.80

E. Fernández 1 ⚽ 83' M 7.98

P. Foden 64' M 6.32

E. Haaland 1 ⚽ F 8.00

Bench

A. Bouaddi 7' M 5.99

Allan 7' F 6.46

F. Samba M 0.00

G. Rulli G 0.00

J. Doku 26' F 6.87

J. Gvardiol D 0.00

M. Bettinelli G 0.00

M. Kovačić 7' M 5.86

R. Aït-Nouri D 0.00

R. Lewis D 0.00

Rúben Dias 11' D 6.16

Vitor Nunes D 0.00

Best on the pitch

A. Nusa

F · RB

8.20

1 ⚽

2 shots · 25 pass

E. Haaland

F · Manchester

8.00

1 ⚽

3 shots · 8 pass

E. Fernández

M · Manchester

7.98

1 ⚽

1 shots · 59 pass

I. Ndiaye

M · Manchester

7.70

1 👟

· 35 pass

E. Anderson

M · Manchester

7.70

1 👟

1 shots · 83 pass

G. Donnarumma

G · Manchester

7.16

· 29 pass

RB Leipzig — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
M. Vandevoordt	G	90	5.62	—	—	0	39	31%	0	—	—
D. Raum	D	90	6.43	—	—	1	34	31%	6	1	—
C. Lukeba	D	90	5.32	1	—	0	40	37%	0	—	—
W. Orbán	D	90	6.14	—	—	0	32	29%	2	—	—
R. Baku	D	74	6.27	1	—	2	20	14%	1	1	—
E. Banzuzi	M	90	6.11	—	—	2	28	23%	2	—	—
C. Baumgartner	M	57	5.96	—	—	3	18	18%	0	1	—
N. El Aynaoui	M	74	6.05	—	—	0	39	35%	2	1	—
A. Nusa	F	73	8.20	1	—	2	25	17%	1	—	—
Rômulo	F	67	6.33	—	—	0	14	14%	1	—	—
B. Gruda	F	90	6.82	—	1	2	38	30%	1	—	—
B. Henrichs	D	16	5.84	—	—	0	10	9%	0	—	—
C. Nkunku	F	33	6.59	—	1	0	9	8%	0	—	—
N. Seiwald	M	16	5.77	—	—	0	7	5%	0	—	—
R. Reitz	M	17	5.87	—	—	1	3	1%	1	—	—
T. Gomis	F	23	6.24	—	—	1	5	4%	0	—	—

Manchester City — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
G. Donnarumma	G	90	7.16	—	—	0	29	21%	1	—	—
N. O'Reilly	D	90	6.15	—	—	1	47	39%	4	—	—
M. Guéhi	D	90	6.51	—	—	0	79	73%	0	—	—
A. Khusanov	D	90	6.31	—	—	0	90	86%	1	1	—
Matheus Nunes	D	79	6.38	—	—	0	108	103%	1	—	—
E. Anderson	M	83	7.70	—	1	1	83	79%	7	—	—
I. Ndiaye	M	83	7.70	—	1	0	35	32%	1	—	—
R. Cherki	M	90	6.80	—	—	4	74	67%	0	—	—
E. Fernández	M	83	7.98	1	—	1	59	51%	0	—	—
P. Foden	M	64	6.32	—	—	1	37	32%	0	—	—
E. Haaland	F	90	8.00	1	—	3	8	4%	1	—	—
A. Bouaddi	M	7	5.99	—	—	0	3	2%	0	—	—
Allan	F	7	6.46	—	—	0	1	1%	0	—	—
J. Doku	F	26	6.87	—	—	1	11	10%	0	1	—
M. Kovačić	M	7	5.86	—	—	0	6	5%	1	—	—
Rúben Dias	D	11	6.16	—	—	0	5	5%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?

The final score was RB Leipzig 2–3 Manchester City.

What did the model predict before RB Leipzig vs Manchester City?

The model assigned 24% probability to a RB Leipzig win, 19% to a draw, and 56% to an Manchester City win.