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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 31 April 24, 2026 20:30 Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
RB Leipzig
#5 · 12 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Union Berlin
#17 · 6 pts
✓Model correct — prediction RB Leipzig
M. Finkgrafe 22'
Romulo Cardoso 25'
R. Baku (ast. Y. Diomande) 63'
78' (ast. J. Juranovic) D. Doekhi
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave RB Leipzig a 77% win probability (draw 12%, Union Berlin 9%). The final result was RB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin. In 1 previous meetings, RB Leipzig have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Union Berlin.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
4
10
Shots on target
1
3.82
Actual xG
0.18
0
Saves
2
67%
Possession
33%
10
Corners
4
14
Tackles
23
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽M. Finkgrafe
22'
⚽Romulo Cardoso
25'
31'
C. Klaus / F. Ronnow ↕
C. Baumgartner
34'
59'
I. Ansah / A. Ilic ↕
59'
A. Kemlein / J. Haberer ↕
59'
J. Juranovic / C. Trimmel ↕
⚽R. Baku · ast. Y. Diomande
63'
↕ A. Ouedraogo / C. Harder
68'
↕ Romulo Cardoso / B. Gruda
68'
78'
ast. J. Juranovic · D. Doekhi⚽
↕ Y. Diomande / J. Bakayoko
79'
↕ R. Baku / B. Henrichs
79'
83'
L. Burcu / A. Schafer ↕
84'
D. Leite
↕ A. Nusa / T. Gomis
90'
Pre-match prediction
77.99%
RB ←
12.72%
X
9.29%
Union
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (RB Leipzig) 77.99% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
RB
3.24
3.82
+0.58
Union
0.89
0.18
-0.71
RB Leipzig dominated by xG (3.82 vs 0.18). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 7 17
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 7 17
3 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 7 13
4 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 7 13
5 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 7 12
6 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 7 12
7 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 7 10
8 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 7 10
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 7 9
10 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 7 9
11 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 7 9
12 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 7 8
13 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 7 8
14 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 7 8
15 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 7 6
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 7 6
17 Union Berlin Union Berlin 7 6
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 7 3
Lineups
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-3-3
26
G 6.20
35 Max Finkgräfe Max Finkgräfe 1 ⚽ D 7.60
5 E. Bitshiabu E. Bitshiabu D 7.30
4 W. Orbán W. Orbán D 7.50
17 R. Baku R. Baku 1 ⚽ 79' D 8.20
14 C. Baumgartner C. Baumgartner M 6.30
24 X. Schlager X. Schlager M 7.60
20 A. Ouédraogo A. Ouédraogo 68' M 6.30
7 A. Nusa A. Nusa F 7.00
40 Rômulo Rômulo 1 ⚽ 68' F 6.90
49 Y. Diomande Y. Diomande 1 👟 79' F 8.20
Bench
10 B. Gruda B. Gruda 26' F 6.60
11 C. Harder C. Harder 26' F 7.20
16 L. Klostermann L. Klostermann D
27 T. Gomis T. Gomis 4' F
Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-5-2
1 F. Rønnow F. Rønnow 31' G 6.20
4 Diogo Leite Diogo Leite D 6.30
14 L. Querfeld L. Querfeld D 7.50
5 D. Doekhi D. Doekhi 1 ⚽ D 7.60
15 T. Rothe T. Rothe M 6.30
19 J. Haberer J. Haberer 60' M 6.50
8 R. Khedira R. Khedira M 6.20
13 A. Schäfer A. Schäfer 83' M 7.20
28 C. Trimmel C. Trimmel 60' M 6.30
23 A. Ilić A. Ilić 59' F 6.30
7 O. Burke O. Burke F 6.50
Bench
6 A. Kemlein A. Kemlein 34' M 6.90
33 A. Král A. Král M
39 D. Köhn D. Köhn D
10 Ilyas Ansah Ilyas Ansah 35' F 6.50
18 J. Juranović J. Juranović 1 👟 34' D 6.60
9 Livan Burcu Livan Burcu 11' F 6.70
34 Stanley Nsoki Stanley Nsoki D
Best on the pitch
R. Baku
R. Baku
D · RB
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 57 pass
Y. Diomande
Y. Diomande
F · RB
8.20
1 👟
· 39 pass
Max Finkgräfe
Max Finkgräfe
D · RB
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 65 pass
X. Schlager
X. Schlager
M · RB
7.60
· 82 pass
D. Doekhi
D. Doekhi
D · Union
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots · 26 pass
W. Orbán
W. Orbán
D · RB
7.50
· 91 pass
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 94 6.20 — — — 40 28% — — —
Max Finkgräfe D 94 7.60 1 — 1 65 61% 2 — —
E. Bitshiabu D 94 7.30 — — — 89 81% 1 — —
W. Orbán D 94 7.50 — — — 91 80% 4 — —
R. Baku D 79 8.20 1 — 1 57 54% 1 — —
C. Baumgartner M 94 6.30 — — 5 41 33% 1 1 —
X. Schlager M 94 7.60 — — — 82 78% 3 — —
A. Ouédraogo M 68 6.30 — — 2 28 24% — — —
A. Nusa F 90 7.00 — — 3 29 21% — — —
Rômulo F 68 6.90 1 — 2 18 13% — — —
Y. Diomande F 79 8.20 — 1 — 39 32% 1 — —
B. Gruda F 26 6.60 — — — 8 7% — — —
C. Harder F 26 7.20 — — — 2 2% 1 — —
T. Gomis F 4 — — — — 1 1% — — —
Union Berlin Union Berlin — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
F. Rønnow G 31 6.20 — — — 6 4% — — —
Diogo Leite D 94 6.30 — — — 33 26% 3 1 —
L. Querfeld D 94 7.50 — — — 32 22% 3 — —
D. Doekhi D 94 7.60 1 — 2 26 23% 4 — —
T. Rothe M 94 6.30 — — — 18 11% 1 — —
J. Haberer M 60 6.50 — — — 21 16% 3 — —
R. Khedira M 94 6.20 — — — 16 11% 1 — —
A. Schäfer M 83 7.20 — — — 32 24% 2 — —
C. Trimmel M 60 6.30 — — — 23 17% 1 — —
A. Ilić F 59 6.30 — — 1 11 6% — — —
O. Burke F 94 6.50 — — — 24 19% — — —
A. Kemlein M 34 6.90 — — 1 18 12% 2 — —
Ilyas Ansah F 35 6.50 — — — 4 3% — — —
J. Juranović D 34 6.60 — 1 — 9 4% 3 — —
Livan Burcu F 11 6.70 — — — 3 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
The final score was RB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin.
What did the model predict before RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
The model assigned 77% probability to a RB Leipzig win, 12% to a draw, and 9% to an Union Berlin win.