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Bundesliga · Regular Season - 31 April 24, 2026 20:30 Red Bull Arena, Leipzig
RB Leipzig
#3 · 0 pts
3 – 1
Final score
Union Berlin
#11 · 0 pts
✓Model correct — prediction RB Leipzig
M. Finkgrafe 22'
Romulo Cardoso 25'
R. Baku (ast. Y. Diomande) 63'
78' (ast. J. Juranovic) D. Doekhi
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave RB Leipzig a 77% win probability (draw 12%, Union Berlin 9%). The final result was RB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin. In 1 previous meetings, RB Leipzig have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Union Berlin.

Match statistics
14
Total shots
4
10
Shots on target
1
3.82
Actual xG
0.18
0
Saves
2
67%
Possession
33%
10
Corners
4
14
Tackles
23
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽M. Finkgrafe
22'
⚽Romulo Cardoso
25'
31'
C. Klaus / F. Ronnow ↕
C. Baumgartner
34'
59'
I. Ansah / A. Ilic ↕
59'
A. Kemlein / J. Haberer ↕
59'
J. Juranovic / C. Trimmel ↕
⚽R. Baku · ast. Y. Diomande
63'
↕ A. Ouedraogo / C. Harder
68'
↕ Romulo Cardoso / B. Gruda
68'
78'
ast. J. Juranovic · D. Doekhi⚽
↕ Y. Diomande / J. Bakayoko
79'
↕ R. Baku / B. Henrichs
79'
83'
L. Burcu / A. Schafer ↕
84'
D. Leite
↕ A. Nusa / T. Gomis
90'
Pre-match prediction
77.99%
RB ←
12.72%
X
9.29%
Union
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (RB Leipzig) 77.99% (high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
RB
3.24
3.82
+0.58
Union
0.89
0.18
-0.71
RB Leipzig dominated by xG (3.82 vs 0.18). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Bayern München Bayern München 0 0
2 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 0 0
3 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 0 0
4 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 0 0
5 1899 Hoffenheim 1899 Hoffenheim 0 0
6 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0 0
7 SC Freiburg SC Freiburg 0 0
8 Eintracht Frankfurt Eintracht Frankfurt 0 0
9 FC Augsburg FC Augsburg 0 0
10 FSV Mainz 05 FSV Mainz 05 0 0
11 Union Berlin Union Berlin 0 0
12 Borussia Mönchengladbach Borussia Mönchengladbach 0 0
13 Hamburger SV Hamburger SV 0 0
14 1. FC Köln 1. FC Köln 0 0
15 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0 0
16 FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04 0 0
17 SV Elversberg SV Elversberg 0 0
18 SC Paderborn 07 SC Paderborn 07 0 0
Lineups
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 4-3-3
26
G 6.20
35 Max Finkgräfe Max Finkgräfe 1 ⚽ D 7.60
5 El Chadaille Bitshiabu El Chadaille Bitshiabu D 7.30
4 W. Orbán W. Orbán D 7.50
17 Ridle Baku Ridle Baku 1 ⚽ 79' D 8.20
14 C. Baumgartner C. Baumgartner M 6.30
24 Xaver Schlager Xaver Schlager M 7.60
20 Assan Ouédraogo Assan Ouédraogo 68' M 6.30
7 A. Nusa A. Nusa F 7.00
40 Rômulo Rômulo 1 ⚽ 68' F 6.90
49 Yan Diomande Yan Diomande 1 👟 79' F 8.20
Bench
10 Brajan Gruda Brajan Gruda 26' F 6.60
11 Conrad Harder Conrad Harder 26' F 7.20
16
L. Klostermann D
27 Tidiam Gomis Tidiam Gomis 4' F
Union Berlin Union Berlin 3-5-2
1
F. Ronnow 31' G 6.20
4 Diogo Leite Diogo Leite D 6.30
14 L. Querfeld L. Querfeld D 7.50
5 Danilho Doekhi Danilho Doekhi 1 ⚽ D 7.60
15 Tom Alexander Rothe Tom Alexander Rothe M 6.30
19 J. Haberer J. Haberer 60' M 6.50
8 R. Khedira R. Khedira M 6.20
13 A. Schäfer A. Schäfer 83' M 7.20
28 C. Trimmel C. Trimmel 60' M 6.30
23 A. Ilić A. Ilić 59' F 6.30
7 Oliver Burke Oliver Burke F 6.50
Bench
33 Alex Král Alex Král M
6 Aljoscha Kemlein Aljoscha Kemlein 34' M 6.90
39 D. Köhn D. Köhn D
10 Ilyas Ansah Ilyas Ansah 35' F 6.50
18 Josip Juranović Josip Juranović 1 👟 34' D 6.60
9 Livan Burcu Livan Burcu 11' F 6.70
34 Stanley Nsoki Stanley Nsoki D
Best on the pitch
Ridle Baku
Ridle Baku
D · RB
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 57 pass
Yan Diomande
Yan Diomande
F · RB
8.20
1 👟
· 39 pass
Max Finkgräfe
Max Finkgräfe
D · RB
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots · 65 pass
Xaver Schlager
Xaver Schlager
M · RB
7.60
· 82 pass
Danilho Doekhi
Danilho Doekhi
D · Union
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots · 26 pass
W. Orbán
W. Orbán
D · RB
7.50
· 91 pass
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 94 6.20 — — — 40 28% — — —
Max Finkgräfe D 94 7.60 1 — 1 65 61% 2 — —
El Chadaille Bitshiabu D 94 7.30 — — — 89 81% 1 — —
W. Orbán D 94 7.50 — — — 91 80% 4 — —
Ridle Baku D 79 8.20 1 — 1 57 54% 1 — —
C. Baumgartner M 94 6.30 — — 5 41 33% 1 1 —
Xaver Schlager M 94 7.60 — — — 82 78% 3 — —
Assan Ouédraogo M 68 6.30 — — 2 28 24% — — —
A. Nusa F 90 7.00 — — 3 29 21% — — —
Rômulo F 68 6.90 1 — 2 18 13% — — —
Yan Diomande F 79 8.20 — 1 — 39 32% 1 — —
Brajan Gruda F 26 6.60 — — — 8 7% — — —
Conrad Harder F 26 7.20 — — — 2 2% 1 — —
Tidiam Gomis F 4 — — — — 1 1% — — —
Union Berlin Union Berlin — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
F. Ronnow G 31 6.20 — — — 6 4% — — —
Diogo Leite D 94 6.30 — — — 33 26% 3 1 —
L. Querfeld D 94 7.50 — — — 32 22% 3 — —
Danilho Doekhi D 94 7.60 1 — 2 26 23% 4 — —
Tom Alexander Rothe M 94 6.30 — — — 18 11% 1 — —
J. Haberer M 60 6.50 — — — 21 16% 3 — —
R. Khedira M 94 6.20 — — — 16 11% 1 — —
A. Schäfer M 83 7.20 — — — 32 24% 2 — —
C. Trimmel M 60 6.30 — — — 23 17% 1 — —
A. Ilić F 59 6.30 — — 1 11 6% — — —
Oliver Burke F 94 6.50 — — — 24 19% — — —
Aljoscha Kemlein M 34 6.90 — — 1 18 12% 2 — —
Ilyas Ansah F 35 6.50 — — — 4 3% — — —
Josip Juranović D 34 6.60 — 1 — 9 4% 3 — —
Livan Burcu F 11 6.70 — — — 3 3% — — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
The final score was RB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin.
What did the model predict before RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
The model assigned 77% probability to a RB Leipzig win, 12% to a draw, and 9% to an Union Berlin win.