Bundesliga
· Regular Season - 31
April 24, 2026 22:30
✓Model correct — prediction RB Leipzig
M. Finkgrafe
22'
Romulo Cardoso
25'
R. Baku
(ast. Y. Diomande)
63'
78'
(ast. J. Juranovic)
D. Doekhi
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave RB Leipzig a 77% win probability (draw 12%, Union Berlin 9%). The final result was RB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin. In 1 previous meetings, RB Leipzig have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Union Berlin.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
4
10
Shots on target
1
3.82
Actual xG
0.18
0
Saves
2
67%
Possession
33%
10
Corners
4
14
Tackles
23
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽M. Finkgrafe
22'
⚽Romulo Cardoso
25'
31'
C. Klaus
/
F. Ronnow
C. Baumgartner
34'
59'
I. Ansah
/
A. Ilic
59'
A. Kemlein
/
J. Haberer
59'
J. Juranovic
/
C. Trimmel
⚽R. Baku
· ast. Y. Diomande
63'
A. Ouedraogo
/ C. Harder
68'
Romulo Cardoso
/ B. Gruda
68'
78'
ast. J. Juranovic ·
D. Doekhi⚽
Y. Diomande
/ J. Bakayoko
79'
R. Baku
/ B. Henrichs
79'
83'
L. Burcu
/
A. Schafer
84'
D. Leite
A. Nusa
/ T. Gomis
90'
Pre-match prediction
77.99%
RB ←
12.72%
X
9.29%
Union
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (RB Leipzig)
77.99%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
3.24
3.82
+0.58
0.89
0.18
-0.71
RB Leipzig dominated by xG (3.82 vs 0.18).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
26
G
35
M. Finkgrafe
1 ⚽
D
5
E. Bitshiabu
D
4
W. Orbán
D
W. Orbán
D
17
R. Baku
1 ⚽
79'
D
14
C. Baumgartner
M
C. Baumgartner
M
24
Xaver Schlager
M
20
A. Ouedraogo
68'
M
7
A. Nusa
F
A. Nusa
F
40
Romulo Cardoso
1 ⚽
68'
F
49
Y. Diomande
1 👟
79'
F
Bench
10
B. Gruda
26'
F
11
C. Harder
26'
F
16
L. Klostermann
D
27
Tidiam Gomis
4'
F
1
F. Ronnow
31'
G
4
Diogo Leite
D
Diogo Leite
D
14
L. Querfeld
D
L. Querfeld
D
5
Danilho Doekhi
1 ⚽
D
Danilho Doekhi
1 ⚽
D
15
Tom Alexander Rothe
M
Tom Alexander Rothe
M
19
J. Haberer
60'
M
8
Rani Khedira
M
Rani Khedira
M
13
András Schäfer
83'
M
András Schäfer
83'
M
28
Christopher Trimmel
60'
M
Christopher Trimmel
60'
M
23
Andrej Ilić
59'
F
Andrej Ilić
59'
F
7
Oliver Burke
F
Oliver Burke
F
Bench
33
Alex Král
M
Alex Král
M
6
Aljoscha Kemlein
34'
M
Aljoscha Kemlein
34'
M
39
Derrick Köhn
D
Derrick Köhn
D
10
Ilyas Ansah
35'
F
Ilyas Ansah
35'
F
18
Josip Juranović
1 👟
34'
D
Josip Juranović
1 👟
34'
D
9
Livan Burcu
11'
F
Livan Burcu
11'
F
34
Stanley Nsoki
D
Stanley Nsoki
D
Best on the pitch
R. Baku
D · RB
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 57 pass
Y. Diomande
F · RB
8.20
1 👟
· 39 pass
M. Finkgrafe
D · RB
7.60
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 65 pass
Xaver Schlager
M · RB
7.60
· 82 pass
Danilho Doekhi
D · Union
7.60
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 26 pass
W. Orbán
D · RB
7.50
· 91 pass
RB Leipzig — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 40 | 28% | — | — | — | |
| M. Finkgrafe | D | 94 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 1 | 65 | 61% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Bitshiabu | D | 94 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 89 | 81% | 1 | — | — |
| W. Orbán | D | 94 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 91 | 80% | 4 | — | — |
| R. Baku | D | 79 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 57 | 54% | 1 | — | — |
| C. Baumgartner | M | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | 5 | 41 | 33% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Xaver Schlager | M | 94 | 7.60 | — | — | — | 82 | 78% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Ouedraogo | M | 68 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 28 | 24% | — | — | — |
| A. Nusa | F | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 29 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Romulo Cardoso | F | 68 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 18 | 13% | — | — | — |
| Y. Diomande | F | 79 | 8.20 | — | 1 | — | 39 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| B. Gruda | F | 26 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| C. Harder | F | 26 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | 1 | — | — |
| Tidiam Gomis | F | 4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
Union Berlin — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Ronnow | G | 31 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 6 | 4% | — | — | — |
| Diogo Leite | D | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 33 | 26% | 3 | 1 | — |
| L. Querfeld | D | 94 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 32 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| Danilho Doekhi | D | 94 | 7.60 | 1 | — | 2 | 26 | 23% | 4 | — | — |
| Tom Alexander Rothe | M | 94 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Haberer | M | 60 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 21 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
| Rani Khedira | M | 94 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 16 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| András Schäfer | M | 83 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 32 | 24% | 2 | — | — |
| Christopher Trimmel | M | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| Andrej Ilić | F | 59 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 11 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Oliver Burke | F | 94 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 24 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Aljoscha Kemlein | M | 34 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Ilyas Ansah | F | 35 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Josip Juranović | D | 34 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 9 | 4% | 3 | — | — |
| Livan Burcu | F | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
The final score was RB Leipzig 3–1 Union Berlin.
What did the model predict before RB Leipzig vs Union Berlin?
The model assigned 77% probability to a RB Leipzig win, 12% to a draw, and 9% to an Union Berlin win.