J. Marriott
8'
J. Marriott
31'
J. Marriott
(ast. K. Lisbie)
38'
6'
(ast. J. Clark)
J. Richards
50'
K. Palmer
52'
(ast. N. Wells)
K. Palmer
90'+6
(ast. J. Richards)
G. Kodua
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Luton a 34% win probability (draw 32%, Reading 32%). The final result was Reading 3–4 Luton. In 2 previous meetings, Reading have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Luton.
Match statistics
5
Shots on target
5
1.77
Actual xG
1.60
41%
Possession
59%
5
Corners
2
Match Events
6'
ast. J. Clark ·
J. Richards⚽
⚽J. Marriott
8'
⚽J. Marriott
31'
⚽J. Marriott
· ast. K. Lisbie
38'
39'
J. Wilshere
50'
K. Palmer⚽
52'
ast. N. Wells ·
K. Palmer⚽
61'
B. Benagr
/
E. Lawrence
J. Stokes
/ R. Williams
65'
J. Marriott
/ J. Brown
65'
70'
C. Marshall
/
N. Wells
72'
L. Walsh
K. Lisbie
/ C. Savage
79'
D. Kyerewaa
/ P. Lane
79'
81'
G. Kodua
/
K. Palmer
81'
H. Ashby
/
I. Jones
A. Rinomhota
/ L. Fraser
90'+4
P. O'Connor
90'+5
90'+6
ast. J. Richards ·
G. Kodua⚽
90'+7
G. Kodua
90'
M. Andersen
/
H. Odoffin
Pre-match prediction
32.72%
Reading
32.54%
X
34.74%
Luton ←
we assigned to the actual result (Luton)
34.74%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.91
1.77
+0.86
1.76
1.60
-0.15
xG dominance was balanced (1.77 – 1.60).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Reading vs Luton?
The final score was Reading 3–4 Luton.
What did the model predict before Reading vs Luton?
The model assigned 32% probability to a Reading win, 32% to a draw, and 34% to an Luton win.