✓Model correct — prediction Real Madrid
K. Mbappe
(ast. A. Guler)
30'
Vinicius Junior
(ast. F. Valverde)
50'
90'+3
(ast. A. Guevara)
T. Martinez
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 78% win probability (draw 12%, Alaves 8%). The final result was Real Madrid 2–1 Alaves. In 1 previous meetings, Real Madrid have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Alaves.
Match statistics
17
Total shots
11
8
Shots on target
5
1.63
Actual xG
2.11
4
Saves
5
62%
Possession
38%
9
Corners
6
16
Tackles
20
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽K. Mbappe
· ast. A. Guler
30'
A. Tchouameni
35'
Eder Militao
/ A. Rudiger
45'+2
⚽Vinicius Junior
· ast. F. Valverde
50'
58'
P. Ibanez
/
D. Suarez
J. Bellingham
/ B. Diaz
58'
A. Guler
/ F. Mastantuono
58'
58'
C. Alena
/
J. Guridi
T. Alexander-Arnold
/ D. Carvajal
63'
A. Tchouameni
/ E. Camavinga
63'
66'
I. Diabate
/
L. Boye
66'
Calebe
/
Yusi
75'
A. Guevara
/
A. Blanco
90'+3
ast. A. Guevara ·
T. Martinez⚽
90'
A. Perez
Pre-match prediction
78.37%
Real ←
12.73%
X
8.91%
Alaves
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid)
78.37%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
3.14
1.63
-1.51
0.96
2.11
+1.15
Alaves dominated by xG (2.11 vs 1.63).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
13
G
18
Álvaro Fernández
D
Álvaro Fernández
D
24
D. Huijsen
D
D. Huijsen
D
3
Eder Militao
44'
D
12
Trent Alexander-Arnold
63'
D
Trent Alexander-Arnold
63'
D
15
A. Güler
1 👟
58'
M
A. Güler
1 👟
58'
M
14
Aurélien Tchouaméni
63'
M
Aurélien Tchouaméni
63'
M
5
Jude Bellingham
58'
M
Jude Bellingham
58'
M
8
Federico Valverde
1 👟
M
Federico Valverde
1 👟
M
7
Vinícius Júnior
1 ⚽
F
Vinícius Júnior
1 ⚽
F
10
Kylian Mbappé
1 ⚽
F
Kylian Mbappé
1 ⚽
F
Bench
22
A. Rüdiger
46'
D
A. Rüdiger
46'
D
21
Brahim Díaz
32'
M
Brahim Díaz
32'
M
6
Eduardo Camavinga
27'
M
Eduardo Camavinga
27'
M
23
F. Mendy
D
30
Franco Mastantuono
32'
F
Franco Mastantuono
32'
F
20
Fran García
D
Fran García
D
16
Gonzalo García
F
Gonzalo García
F
45
Thiago Pitarch
M
Thiago Pitarch
M
1
Antonio Sivera
G
Antonio Sivera
G
3
Yusi
66'
D
Yusi
66'
D
24
Victor Parada
D
Victor Parada
D
14
Nahuel Tenaglia
D
Nahuel Tenaglia
D
17
Jonny Otto
D
Jonny Otto
D
7
Ángel Pérez
D
Ángel Pérez
D
4
Denis Suárez
58'
M
Denis Suárez
58'
M
8
Antonio Blanco
75'
M
Antonio Blanco
75'
M
18
Jon Guridi
58'
M
Jon Guridi
58'
M
15
L. Boyé
66'
F
L. Boyé
66'
F
11
Toni Martínez
1 ⚽
F
Toni Martínez
1 ⚽
F
Bench
10
Carles Aleñá
32'
M
Carles Aleñá
32'
M
22
Ibrahim Diabaté
24'
F
Ibrahim Diabaté
24'
F
19
Pablo Ibáñez
32'
M
Pablo Ibáñez
32'
M
Best on the pitch
Vinícius Júnior
F · Real
9.50
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 43 pass
D. Huijsen
D · Real
8.90
· 73 pass
Kylian Mbappé
F · Real
8.20
1 ⚽
6 shots
· 42 pass
Trent Alexander-Arnold
D · Real
7.70
1 shots
· 65 pass
Nahuel Tenaglia
D · Alaves
7.50
· 17 pass
Antonio Blanco
M · Alaves
7.30
· 50 pass
Real Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 35 | 30% | — | — | — | |
| Álvaro Fernández | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 74 | 68% | 5 | — | — |
| D. Huijsen | D | 90 | 8.90 | — | — | — | 73 | 67% | 3 | — | — |
| Eder Militao | D | 44 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | D | 63 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 65 | 61% | — | — | — |
| A. Güler | M | 58 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 51 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | M | 63 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 37% | — | 1 | — |
| Jude Bellingham | M | 58 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 34 | 32% | 1 | — | — |
| Federico Valverde | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 54 | 50% | 2 | — | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | F | 90 | 9.50 | 1 | — | 3 | 43 | 38% | — | — | — |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 6 | 42 | 35% | — | — | — |
| A. Rüdiger | D | 46 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 32% | — | — | — |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 32 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Eduardo Camavinga | M | 27 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Franco Mastantuono | F | 32 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 10 | 8% | — | — | — |
Alaves — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Sivera | G | 90 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 23 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Yusi | D | 66 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 14% | — | — | — |
| Victor Parada | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Nahuel Tenaglia | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 17 | 15% | 2 | — | — |
| Jonny Otto | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 40% | 5 | — | — |
| Ángel Pérez | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 36 | 27% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Denis Suárez | M | 58 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 24 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Antonio Blanco | M | 75 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 50 | 47% | 2 | — | — |
| Jon Guridi | M | 58 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Boyé | F | 66 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| Toni Martínez | F | 90 | 6.50 | 1 | — | 6 | 26 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Carles Aleñá | M | 32 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Diabaté | F | 24 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 32 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 17% | 4 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Alaves?
The final score was Real Madrid 2–1 Alaves.
What did the model predict before Real Madrid vs Alaves?
The model assigned 78% probability to a Real Madrid win, 12% to a draw, and 8% to an Alaves win.