Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic Club — pre-match prediction — La Liga — May 23, 2026

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La Liga · Regular Season - 38 May 23, 2026 21:00 Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid

Real Madrid

#3 · 24 pts

4 – 2

Final score

Athletic Club

#8 · 12 pts

✓Model correct — prediction Real Madrid

G. Garcia (ast. D. Carvajal) 12'

J. Bellingham (ast. T. Pitarch) 41'

K. Mbappe (ast. A. Carreras) 51'

B. Diaz (ast. T. Pitarch) 90'

45'+1 (ast. I. Williams) G. Guruzeta

90'+1 (ast. I. Williams) Izeta

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 67% win probability (draw 18%, Athletic Club 13%). The final result was Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic Club. In 1 previous meetings, Real Madrid have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Athletic Club.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.86

Actual xG

0.86

Saves

74%

Possession

26%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

T. Pitarch

⚽G. Garcia · ast. D. Carvajal

12'

J. Bellingham

20'

⚽J. Bellingham · ast. T. Pitarch

41'

45'+1

ast. I. Williams · G. Guruzeta⚽

46'

A. Gorosabel / Y. Alvarez ↕

⚽K. Mbappe · ast. A. Carreras

51'

60'

I. Lekue / I. Ruiz de Galarreta ↕

60'

A. Rego / U. Gomez ↕

↕ D. Alaba / D. Huijsen

70'

↕ J. Bellingham / D. Ceballos

74'

↕ G. Garcia / A. Guler

74'

↕ F. Mastantuono / B. Diaz

74'

Izeta / G. Guruzeta ↕

↕ D. Carvajal / M. Serrano

84'

86'

M. Vesga / M. Jauregizar ↕

90'+1

ast. I. Williams · Izeta⚽

⚽B. Diaz · ast. T. Pitarch

90'

Pre-match prediction

67.85%

Real ←

18.76%

13.39%

Athletic

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid) 67.85% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Real

2.10

1.86

-0.24

Athletic

0.80

0.86

+0.06

Real Madrid dominated by xG (1.86 vs 0.86). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Barcelona	10	27
2	Atletico Madrid	10	25
3	Real Madrid	10	24
4	Real Betis	10	20
5	Real Sociedad	10	19
6	Sevilla	10	17
7	Alaves	10	12
8	Athletic Club	9	12
9	Celta Vigo	10	12
10	Villarreal	10	12
11	Deportivo La Coruna	10	11
12	Osasuna	10	11
13	Racing Santander	10	11
14	Levante	10	10
15	Elche	10	10
16	Rayo Vallecano	9	9
17	Getafe	10	9
18	Espanyol	10	8
19	Valencia	10	6
20	Malaga	10	5

Lineups

Real Madrid 4-4-2

T. Courtois G 6.70

Álvaro Fernández 1 👟 D 6.90

D. Alaba 70' D 6.90

Raúl Asencio D 6.60

Dani Carvajal 1 👟 84' D 6.60

Thiago Pitarch 2 👟 M 7.50

F. Valverde M 6.90

J. Bellingham 1 ⚽ 74' M 7.60

Franco Mastantuono 74' M 6.70

Kylian Mbappé 1 ⚽ F 8.00

Gonzalo García 1 ⚽ 74' F 7.50

Bench

A. Güler 18' M 6.70

A. Lunin G

Álvaro González G

A. Rüdiger D

A. Tchouaméni M

Brahim Díaz 1 ⚽ 18' M 7.30

Dani Ceballos 18' M 6.50

D. Huijsen 22' D 6.20

E. Camavinga M

Fran García D

Manuel Serrano Salazar 8' D 6.20

Athletic Club 4-2-3-1

Álex Padilla G 5.20

A. Boiro D 6.00

Aitor Paredes D 5.70

Yeray 45' D 6.20

Dani Vivian D 5.60

Mikel Jauregizar 85' M 6.30

Ruíz de Galarreta 60' M 6.20

Robert Navarro M 6.50

Unai Gómez 60' M 6.00

I. Williams 2 👟 M 6.90

Gorka Guruzeta 1 ⚽ 74' F 7.20

Bench

Alejandro Rego 32' M 6.70

Aymeric Laporte D

Beñat Prados M

Elijah Gift F

Gorosabel 47' D 5.90

Jesús Areso D

Lekue 32' D 6.30

Maroan Sannadi F

Mikel Vesga 7' M

Nico Serrano F

Unai Simón G

Urko Izeta 1 ⚽ 18' F 7.30

Best on the pitch

Kylian Mbappé

F · Real

8.00

1 ⚽

5 shots · 39 pass

J. Bellingham

M · Real

7.60

1 ⚽

2 shots · 55 pass

Thiago Pitarch

M · Real

7.50

2 👟

2 shots · 87 pass

Gonzalo García

F · Real

7.50

1 ⚽

1 shots · 13 pass

Urko Izeta

F · Athletic

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 2 pass

Brahim Díaz

M · Real

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 4 pass

Real Madrid — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
T. Courtois	G	92	6.70	—	—	—	53	50%	—	—	—
Álvaro Fernández	D	92	6.90	—	1	—	82	70%	—	—	—
D. Alaba	D	70	6.90	—	—	1	97	91%	—	—	—
Raúl Asencio	D	92	6.60	—	—	—	94	88%	—	—	—
Dani Carvajal	D	84	6.60	—	1	—	53	45%	—	—	—
Thiago Pitarch	M	92	7.50	—	2	2	87	79%	2	1	—
F. Valverde	M	92	6.90	—	—	1	94	87%	—	—	—
J. Bellingham	M	74	7.60	1	—	2	55	51%	—	1	—
Franco Mastantuono	M	74	6.70	—	—	—	31	26%	—	—	—
Kylian Mbappé	F	92	8.00	1	—	5	39	31%	—	—	—
Gonzalo García	F	74	7.50	1	—	1	13	13%	—	—	—
A. Güler	M	18	6.70	—	—	—	4	4%	—	—	—
Brahim Díaz	M	18	7.30	1	—	1	4	4%	—	—	—
Dani Ceballos	M	18	6.50	—	—	—	13	13%	—	—	—
D. Huijsen	D	22	6.20	—	—	—	16	13%	—	—	—
Manuel Serrano Salazar	D	8	6.20	—	—	—	7	7%	—	—	—

Athletic Club — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Álex Padilla	G	92	5.20	—	—	—	30	11%	—	—	—
A. Boiro	D	92	6.00	—	—	1	16	14%	—	—	—
Aitor Paredes	D	92	5.70	—	—	—	26	22%	—	—	—
Yeray	D	45	6.20	—	—	—	10	5%	—	—	—
Dani Vivian	D	92	5.60	—	—	—	21	18%	3	—	—
Mikel Jauregizar	M	85	6.30	—	—	—	24	13%	4	—	—
Ruíz de Galarreta	M	60	6.20	—	—	—	23	15%	—	—	—
Robert Navarro	M	92	6.50	—	—	1	25	20%	—	—	—
Unai Gómez	M	60	6.00	—	—	—	6	6%	—	—	—
I. Williams	M	92	6.90	—	2	—	14	5%	—	—	—
Gorka Guruzeta	F	74	7.20	1	—	4	21	13%	—	—	—
Alejandro Rego	M	32	6.70	—	—	—	15	14%	—	—	—
Gorosabel	D	47	5.90	—	—	—	7	6%	—	—	—
Lekue	D	32	6.30	—	—	—	9	8%	—	—	—
Mikel Vesga	M	7	—	—	—	—	2	2%	—	—	—
Urko Izeta	F	18	7.30	1	—	1	2	2%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Athletic Club?

The final score was Real Madrid 4–2 Athletic Club.

What did the model predict before Real Madrid vs Athletic Club?

The model assigned 67% probability to a Real Madrid win, 18% to a draw, and 13% to an Athletic Club win.