Champions League
· Quarter-finals
April 07, 2026 21:00
K. Mbappe
(ast. T. Alexander-Arnold)
74'
41'
(ast. S. Gnabry)
L. Diaz
46'
(ast. M. Olise)
H. Kane
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Bayern München a 45% win probability (draw 19%, Real Madrid 34%). The final result was Real Madrid 1–2 Bayern München. In 1 previous meetings, Real Madrid have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Bayern München.
Match statistics
17
Total shots
14
9
Shots on target
8
1.97
Actual xG
2.99
5
Saves
9
48%
Possession
52%
8
Corners
11
13
Tackles
12
1
🟨 Yellow cards
4
Match Events
A. Tchouameni
36'
41'
ast. S. Gnabry ·
L. Diaz⚽
46'
ast. M. Olise ·
H. Kane⚽
D. Huijsen
/ Eder Militao
62'
T. Pitarch
/ J. Bellingham
62'
69'
J. Musiala
/
S. Gnabry
69'
A. Davies
/
K. Laimer
71'
J. Tah
A. Guler
/ B. Diaz
71'
⚽K. Mbappe
· ast. T. Alexander-Arnold
74'
77'
L. Diaz
82'
M. Neuer
86'
J. Musiala
90'+3
T. Bischof
/
L. Diaz
90'+3
L. Goretzka
/
A. Pavlovic
Pre-match prediction
34.89%
Real
19.56%
X
45.55%
Bayern ←
we assigned to the actual result (Bayern München)
45.55%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.11
1.97
-0.14
2.32
2.99
+0.67
Bayern München dominated by xG (2.99 vs 1.97).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
13
G
18
Álvaro Fernández
D
Álvaro Fernández
D
24
D. Huijsen
62'
D
D. Huijsen
62'
D
22
A. Rüdiger
D
A. Rüdiger
D
12
T. Alexander-Arnold
1 👟
D
T. Alexander-Arnold
1 👟
D
15
A. Güler
71'
M
A. Güler
71'
M
14
A. Tchouaméni
M
A. Tchouaméni
M
45
Thiago Pitarch
62'
M
Thiago Pitarch
62'
M
8
F. Valverde
M
F. Valverde
M
7
Vinícius Júnior
F
Vinícius Júnior
F
10
Kylian Mbappé
1 ⚽
F
Kylian Mbappé
1 ⚽
F
Bench
21
Brahim Díaz
19'
M
Brahim Díaz
19'
M
6
E. Camavinga
M
E. Camavinga
M
3
Eder Militao
28'
D
30
Franco Mastantuono
F
Franco Mastantuono
F
20
Fran García
D
Fran García
D
16
Gonzalo García
F
Gonzalo García
F
5
J. Bellingham
28'
M
J. Bellingham
28'
M
17
Raúl Asencio
D
Raúl Asencio
D
1
M. Neuer
G
M. Neuer
G
27
K. Laimer
69'
D
K. Laimer
69'
D
4
J. Tah
D
J. Tah
D
2
D. Upamecano
D
D. Upamecano
D
44
J. Stanišić
D
J. Stanišić
D
6
J. Kimmich
M
J. Kimmich
M
45
A. Pavlović
89'
M
A. Pavlović
89'
M
14
L. Díaz
1 ⚽
89'
M
L. Díaz
1 ⚽
89'
M
7
S. Gnabry
1 👟
69'
M
S. Gnabry
1 👟
69'
M
17
M. Olise
1 👟
M
M. Olise
1 👟
M
9
H. Kane
1 ⚽
F
H. Kane
1 ⚽
F
Bench
19
A. Davies
21'
D
A. Davies
21'
D
21
Hiroki Itō
D
Hiroki Itō
D
10
J. Musiala
21'
M
J. Musiala
21'
M
3
Kim Min-jae
D
Kim Min-jae
D
8
Leon Goretzka
1'
M
Leon Goretzka
1'
M
42
L. Karl
M
L. Karl
M
11
N. Jackson
F
N. Jackson
F
22
Raphaël Guerreiro
D
Raphaël Guerreiro
D
20
T. Bischof
1'
M
T. Bischof
1'
M
Best on the pitch
M. Neuer
G · Bayern
8.90
· 37 pass
G · Real
8.00
· 27 pass
H. Kane
F · Bayern
7.90
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 22 pass
Kylian Mbappé
F · Real
7.90
1 ⚽
6 shots
· 22 pass
A. Pavlović
M · Bayern
7.50
· 78 pass
T. Alexander-Arnold
D · Real
7.30
1 👟
· 52 pass
Real Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 8.00 | — | — | — | 27 | 22% | — | — | — | |
| Álvaro Fernández | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 47 | 37% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Huijsen | D | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 43 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Rüdiger | D | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 41% | — | — | — |
| T. Alexander-Arnold | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | 1 | — | 52 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Güler | M | 71 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 37 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Tchouaméni | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 46 | 45% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Thiago Pitarch | M | 62 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 23% | — | — | — |
| F. Valverde | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 33 | 29% | 3 | — | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | F | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 7 | 29 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 6 | 22 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 19 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Eder Militao | D | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 20 | 16% | — | — | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 28 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 15 | 14% | — | — | — |
Bayern München — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Neuer | G | 90 | 8.90 | — | — | — | 37 | 24% | — | 1 | — |
| K. Laimer | D | 69 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 23% | — | — | — |
| J. Tah | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 40 | 39% | — | 1 | — |
| D. Upamecano | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 38% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Stanišić | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 40% | 4 | — | — |
| J. Kimmich | M | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 85 | 77% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Pavlović | M | 89 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 78 | 72% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Díaz | M | 89 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 42 | 36% | — | 1 | — |
| S. Gnabry | M | 69 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 2 | 22 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Olise | M | 90 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 3 | 48 | 41% | — | — | — |
| H. Kane | F | 90 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 2 | 22 | 17% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Davies | D | 21 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| J. Musiala | M | 21 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 5 | 5% | — | 1 | — |
| Leon Goretzka | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Bischof | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Bayern München?
The final score was Real Madrid 1–2 Bayern München.
What did the model predict before Real Madrid vs Bayern München?
The model assigned 34% probability to a Real Madrid win, 19% to a draw, and 45% to an Bayern München win.