✗Model wrong — prediction Real Madrid, result Draw
F. Valverde
(ast. B. Diaz)
51'
62'
(ast. A. Martinez)
T. Lemar
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 69% win probability (draw 17%, Girona 12%). The final result was Real Madrid 1–1 Girona. In 1 previous meetings, Real Madrid have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Girona.
Match statistics
16
Total shots
7
9
Shots on target
2
2.30
Actual xG
0.52
1
Saves
7
61%
Possession
39%
10
Corners
1
13
Tackles
21
2
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Kylian Mbappé
35'
⚽F. Valverde
· ast. B. Diaz
51'
62'
ast. A. Martinez ·
T. Lemar⚽
Eder Militao
/ D. Huijsen
64'
J. Bellingham
/ A. Guler
64'
64'
A. Ruiz
/
C. Echeverri
70'
B. Gil
/
A. Ounahi
70'
H. Rincon
/
T. Lemar
Federico Valverde
76'
E. Camavinga
/ A. Tchouameni
79'
F. Garcia
/ F. Mendy
79'
B. Diaz
/ G. Garcia
84'
84'
F. Beltran
/
I. Martin
85'
C. Stuani
/
88'
Hugo Rincón
Pre-match prediction
69.51%
Real
17.5%
X ←
12.99%
Girona
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
17.5%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.45
2.30
-0.15
1.01
0.52
-0.49
Real Madrid dominated by xG (2.30 vs 0.52).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
13
G
20
Fran García
79'
D
Fran García
79'
D
17
Raúl Asencio
D
Raúl Asencio
D
3
Éder Militão
64'
D
Éder Militão
64'
D
2
D
21
Brahim Díaz
1 👟
84'
M
Brahim Díaz
1 👟
84'
M
6
E. Camavinga
79'
M
E. Camavinga
79'
M
5
J. Bellingham
64'
M
J. Bellingham
64'
M
8
F. Valverde
1 ⚽
M
F. Valverde
1 ⚽
M
7
Vinícius Júnior
F
Vinícius Júnior
F
10
Kylian Mbappé
F
Kylian Mbappé
F
Bench
15
A. Güler
26'
M
A. Güler
26'
M
14
A. Tchouaméni
11'
M
A. Tchouaméni
11'
M
24
D. Huijsen
26'
D
D. Huijsen
26'
D
23
F. Mendy
11'
D
16
Gonzalo García
12'
F
Gonzalo García
12'
F
37
Manuel Ángel
M
Manuel Ángel
M
45
Thiago Pitarch
M
Thiago Pitarch
M
13
G
24
Álex Moreno
D
Álex Moreno
D
12
Vitor Nunes
D
Vitor Nunes
D
16
D
4
Arnau Martínez
1 👟
D
Arnau Martínez
1 👟
D
20
A. Witsel
M
A. Witsel
M
23
Iván Martín
84'
M
Iván Martín
84'
M
18
A. Ounahi
70'
M
A. Ounahi
70'
M
11
T. Lemar
1 ⚽
70'
M
T. Lemar
1 ⚽
70'
M
15
V. Tsygankov
M
V. Tsygankov
M
14
C. Echeverri
64'
F
C. Echeverri
64'
F
Bench
7
C. Stuani
11'
F
C. Stuani
11'
F
8
Fran Beltrán
12'
M
Fran Beltrán
12'
M
2
Hugo Rincón
20'
D
Hugo Rincón
20'
D
3
Joel Roca
M
Joel Roca
M
Best on the pitch
Vinícius Júnior
F · Real
8.60
3 shots
· 39 pass
F. Valverde
M · Real
8.50
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 47 pass
G · Girona
8.20
· 42 pass
Vitor Nunes
D · Girona
7.70
· 50 pass
E. Camavinga
M · Real
7.50
1 shots
· 61 pass
J. Bellingham
M · Real
7.30
2 shots
· 35 pass
Real Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 36 | 31% | — | — | — | |
| Fran García | D | 79 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 56 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| Raúl Asencio | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 75 | 72% | 1 | — | — |
| Éder Militão | D | 64 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 49 | 46% | — | — | — |
| D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 40% | 1 | — | — | |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 84 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 1 | 38 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Camavinga | M | 79 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 61 | 58% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 64 | 7.30 | — | — | 2 | 35 | 31% | — | — | — |
| F. Valverde | M | 90 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 2 | 47 | 39% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | F | 90 | 8.60 | — | — | 3 | 39 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 90 | 5.90 | — | — | 4 | 21 | 20% | — | 1 | — |
| A. Güler | M | 26 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 32 | 29% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Tchouaméni | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 18 | 18% | 1 | — | — |
| D. Huijsen | D | 26 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 27% | — | — | — |
| F. Mendy | D | 11 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 20 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo García | F | 12 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
Girona — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 8.20 | — | — | — | 42 | 31% | 1 | — | — | |
| Álex Moreno | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 22% | 2 | — | — |
| Vitor Nunes | D | 90 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 50 | 49% | 4 | — | — |
| D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 44 | 40% | 4 | — | — | |
| Arnau Martínez | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 2 | 33 | 27% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Witsel | M | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 54 | 53% | 1 | — | — |
| Iván Martín | M | 84 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 30 | 28% | 2 | — | — |
| A. Ounahi | M | 70 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 28 | 26% | 1 | — | — |
| T. Lemar | M | 70 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 26 | 21% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Tsygankov | M | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 25 | 19% | — | — | — |
| C. Echeverri | F | 64 | 6.70 | — | — | 3 | 16 | 15% | — | — | — |
| C. Stuani | F | 11 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Fran Beltrán | M | 12 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Hugo Rincón | D | 20 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | 2 | 1 | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Girona?
The final score was Real Madrid 1–1 Girona.
What did the model predict before Real Madrid vs Girona?
The model assigned 69% probability to a Real Madrid win, 17% to a draw, and 12% to an Girona win.