J. Bellingham
19'
A. Herrero
26'
(og)
K. Mbappe
(ast. T. Alexander-Arnold)
30'
A. Guler
(ast. Vinicius Junior)
90'+1
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 45% win probability (draw 27%, Malaga 26%). The final result was Real Madrid 4–0 Malaga.
Match statistics
11
Total shots
8
7
Shots on target
1
2.34
Actual xG
0.67
1
Saves
3
57%
Possession
43%
8
Corners
5
12
Tackles
14
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽J. Bellingham
19'
⚽A. Herrero
(og)
26'
⚽K. Mbappe
· ast. T. Alexander-Arnold
30'
46'
P. Martinez
/
R. Rodriguez
61'
J. Cruz
/
J. Munoz
61'
J. Salinas
/
C. Puga
B. Diaz
/ Y. Diomande
65'
66'
Chupe
74'
H. Abaida
/
E. Galilea
F. Valverde
/ B. Silva
77'
J. Bellingham
/ A. Guler
87'
87'
R. Enriquez
/
I. Merino
⚽A. Guler
· ast. Vinicius Junior
90'+1
90'+3
R. Enriquez
Pre-match prediction
45.52%
Real ←
27.89%
X
26.59%
Malaga
we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid)
45.52%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.29
2.34
+1.05
0.86
0.67
-0.19
Real Madrid dominated by xG (2.34 vs 0.67).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
T. Courtois
G
T. Courtois
G
17
Marc Cucurella
D
Marc Cucurella
D
4
D. Huijsen
D
D. Huijsen
D
22
A. Rüdiger
D
A. Rüdiger
D
12
T. Alexander-Arnold
1 👟
D
T. Alexander-Arnold
1 👟
D
6
E. Camavinga
M
E. Camavinga
M
8
F. Valverde
77'
M
F. Valverde
77'
M
7
Vinícius Júnior
1 👟
M
Vinícius Júnior
1 👟
M
5
J. Bellingham
1 ⚽
87'
M
J. Bellingham
1 ⚽
87'
M
21
Brahim Díaz
65'
M
Brahim Díaz
65'
M
10
Kylian Mbappé
1 ⚽
F
Kylian Mbappé
1 ⚽
F
Bench
15
A. Güler
1 ⚽
5'
M
A. Güler
1 ⚽
5'
M
36
Alexis Ciria
M
Alexis Ciria
M
13
A. Lunin
G
A. Lunin
G
18
Álvaro Fernández
D
Álvaro Fernández
D
20
Bernardo Silva
15'
M
Bernardo Silva
15'
M
19
Carlos Espí
F
Carlos Espí
F
24
D. Dumfries
D
D. Dumfries
D
16
I. Konaté
D
I. Konaté
D
31
Javi Navarro
G
Javi Navarro
G
29
J. Cestero Sancho
M
J. Cestero Sancho
M
33
Mario Rivas
D
Mario Rivas
D
25
Y. Diomande
27'
F
Y. Diomande
27'
F
1
Alfonso Herrero
1 ⚽
G
Alfonso Herrero
1 ⚽
G
31
Rafita
D
Rafita
D
4
Einar Galilea
74'
D
Einar Galilea
74'
D
15
Ángel Recio
D
Ángel Recio
D
3
Puga
60'
D
Puga
60'
D
11
Joaquín Muñoz
61'
M
Joaquín Muñoz
61'
M
23
Izan Merino
87'
M
Izan Merino
87'
M
14
Rafa Rodríguez
45'
M
Rafa Rodríguez
45'
M
10
David Larrubia
M
David Larrubia
M
8
Carlos Dotor
F
Carlos Dotor
F
9
Chupe
F
Chupe
F
Bench
5
Álex Pastor
D
Álex Pastor
D
13
Carlos López
G
Carlos López
G
17
Eneko Jauregi
F
Eneko Jauregi
F
7
H. Abaida
18'
F
H. Abaida
18'
F
32
J. Fernandez
F
J. Fernandez
F
28
Joseph Otunenche
M
Joseph Otunenche
M
12
José Salinas
32'
D
José Salinas
32'
D
19
Juan Cruz
31'
M
Juan Cruz
31'
M
24
Julen Lobete
F
Julen Lobete
F
18
Pablo Martínez
47'
M
Pablo Martínez
47'
M
6
Ramón Enríquez
5'
M
Ramón Enríquez
5'
M
Best on the pitch
Kylian Mbappé
F · Real
8.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 34 pass
J. Bellingham
M · Real
8.50
1 ⚽
5 shots
· 38 pass
T. Alexander-Arnold
D · Real
7.60
1 👟
2 shots
· 96 pass
Vinícius Júnior
M · Real
7.50
1 👟
· 30 pass
Marc Cucurella
D · Real
7.30
· 50 pass
A. Güler
M · Real
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 1 pass
Real Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Courtois | G | 92 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 35 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 92 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 50 | 45% | 4 | — | — |
| D. Huijsen | D | 92 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 54 | 50% | 3 | — | — |
| A. Rüdiger | D | 92 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 82 | 79% | — | — | — |
| T. Alexander-Arnold | D | 92 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 2 | 96 | 87% | — | — | — |
| E. Camavinga | M | 92 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 71 | 64% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Valverde | M | 77 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 56 | 50% | — | — | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | M | 92 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 30 | 25% | — | — | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 87 | 8.50 | 1 | — | 5 | 38 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 65 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 27 | 27% | — | — | — |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 92 | 8.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 34 | 30% | — | — | — |
| A. Güler | M | 5 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 15 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Diomande | F | 27 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
Malaga — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfonso Herrero | G | 92 | 6.70 | 1 | — | — | 21 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Rafita | D | 92 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 52 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| Einar Galilea | D | 74 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 34 | 33% | — | — | — |
| Ángel Recio | D | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 39 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| Puga | D | 60 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 29 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| Joaquín Muñoz | M | 61 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 18 | 17% | — | — | — |
| Izan Merino | M | 87 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 52 | 46% | 1 | — | — |
| Rafa Rodríguez | M | 45 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 30 | 25% | 1 | — | — |
| David Larrubia | M | 92 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| Carlos Dotor | F | 92 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 56 | 51% | 2 | — | — |
| Chupe | F | 92 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 18 | 15% | — | 1 | — |
| H. Abaida | F | 18 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | — | — | — |
| José Salinas | D | 32 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Juan Cruz | M | 31 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 9% | 1 | — | — |
| Pablo Martínez | M | 47 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 32 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Ramón Enríquez | M | 5 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 5% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Malaga?
The final score was Real Madrid 4–0 Malaga.
What did the model predict before Real Madrid vs Malaga?
The model assigned 45% probability to a Real Madrid win, 27% to a draw, and 26% to an Malaga win.