La Liga
· Regular Season - 36
May 14, 2026 21:30
✓Model correct — prediction Real Madrid
G. Garcia
(ast. B. Diaz)
44'
J. Bellingham
(ast. K. Mbappe)
80'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 73% win probability (draw 16%, Oviedo 10%). The final result was Real Madrid 2–0 Oviedo. In 1 previous meetings, Real Madrid have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Oviedo.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
6
7
Shots on target
1
1.46
Actual xG
1.03
1
Saves
5
65%
Possession
35%
4
Corners
5
9
Tackles
12
Match Events
⚽G. Garcia
· ast. B. Diaz
44'
55'
S. Cazorla
/
I. Chaira
T. Alexander-Arnold
/ D. Carvajal
64'
A. Tchouameni
/ J. Bellingham
64'
69'
H. Hassan
/
T. Fernandez
G. Garcia
/ K. Mbappe
69'
B. Diaz
/ C. Palacios
77'
F. Mastantuono
/ D. Yanez
77'
79'
P. Agudin
/
N. Fonseca
79'
L. Ahijado
/
N. Vidal
⚽J. Bellingham
· ast. K. Mbappe
80'
Pre-match prediction
73.04%
Real ←
16.01%
X
10.96%
Oviedo
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid)
73.04%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.37
1.46
-0.91
0.80
1.03
+0.24
Real Madrid dominated by xG (1.46 vs 1.03).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
Thibaut Courtois
G
Thibaut Courtois
G
18
Álvaro Fernández
D
Álvaro Fernández
D
4
David Alaba
D
David Alaba
D
17
Raúl Asencio
D
Raúl Asencio
D
12
Trent Alexander-Arnold
64'
D
Trent Alexander-Arnold
64'
D
21
Brahim Díaz
1 👟
77'
M
Brahim Díaz
1 👟
77'
M
14
Aurélien Tchouaméni
64'
M
Aurélien Tchouaméni
64'
M
6
Eduardo Camavinga
M
Eduardo Camavinga
M
30
Franco Mastantuono
77'
M
Franco Mastantuono
77'
M
7
Vinícius Júnior
F
Vinícius Júnior
F
16
Gonzalo García
1 ⚽
69'
F
Gonzalo García
1 ⚽
69'
F
Bench
22
Antonio Rüdiger
D
Antonio Rüdiger
D
38
César Palacios
13'
M
César Palacios
13'
M
2
Dani Carvajal
26'
D
Dani Carvajal
26'
D
42
Daniel Yañez
13'
F
Daniel Yañez
13'
F
20
Fran García
D
Fran García
D
26
Fran González
G
Fran González
G
36
Joan Martínez
D
Joan Martínez
D
5
Jude Bellingham
1 ⚽
26'
M
Jude Bellingham
1 ⚽
26'
M
10
Kylian Mbappé
1 👟
21'
F
Kylian Mbappé
1 👟
21'
F
43
Sergio Mestre
G
Sergio Mestre
G
45
Thiago Pitarch
M
Thiago Pitarch
M
13
Aarón Escandell
G
Aarón Escandell
G
3
Abdel Rahim
D
Abdel Rahim
D
4
David Costas
D
David Costas
D
2
Eric Bailly
D
Eric Bailly
D
22
Nacho Vidal
79'
D
Nacho Vidal
79'
D
5
Alberto Reina
M
Alberto Reina
M
11
Santiago Colombatto
M
Santiago Colombatto
M
23
Nicolas Fonseca
79'
M
Nicolas Fonseca
79'
M
15
Thiago Fernández
69'
F
Thiago Fernández
69'
F
9
Federico Viñas
F
Federico Viñas
F
7
Ilyas Chaira
55'
F
Ilyas Chaira
55'
F
Bench
19
Álex Forés
F
Álex Forés
F
12
Dani Calvo
D
Dani Calvo
D
16
David Carmo
D
David Carmo
D
10
Haissem Hassan
21'
F
Haissem Hassan
21'
F
1
Horațiu Moldovan
G
Horațiu Moldovan
G
24
Lucas Ahijado
11'
D
Lucas Ahijado
11'
D
21
Luka Ilić
M
Luka Ilić
M
27
Pablo Agudín
11'
M
Pablo Agudín
11'
M
8
Santi Cazorla
35'
M
Santi Cazorla
35'
M
17
Thiago Borbas
F
Thiago Borbas
F
Best on the pitch
Gonzalo García
F · Real
8.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 14 pass
Jude Bellingham
M · Real
7.90
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 27 pass
Eduardo Camavinga
M · Real
7.90
1 shots
· 76 pass
Raúl Asencio
D · Real
7.50
· 65 pass
David Alaba
D · Real
7.30
· 63 pass
Brahim Díaz
M · Real
7.30
1 👟
3 shots
· 44 pass
Real Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thibaut Courtois | G | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Fernández | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 66 | 64% | — | — | — |
| David Alaba | D | 90 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 63 | 60% | — | — | — |
| Raúl Asencio | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 65 | 62% | 2 | — | — |
| Trent Alexander-Arnold | D | 64 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 37 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 77 | 7.30 | — | 1 | 3 | 44 | 41% | — | — | — |
| Aurélien Tchouaméni | M | 64 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 76 | 74% | 1 | — | — |
| Eduardo Camavinga | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 76 | 72% | 3 | — | — |
| Franco Mastantuono | M | 77 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 44 | 40% | — | — | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | F | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Gonzalo García | F | 69 | 8.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| César Palacios | M | 13 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 13 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Dani Carvajal | D | 26 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 16 | 14% | 2 | — | — |
| Daniel Yañez | F | 13 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 6 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Jude Bellingham | M | 26 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 1 | 27 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 21 | 6.60 | — | 1 | 2 | 11 | 10% | — | — | — |
Oviedo — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aarón Escandell | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 38 | 25% | — | — | — |
| Abdel Rahim | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 25 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| David Costas | D | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Eric Bailly | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Nacho Vidal | D | 79 | 6.70 | — | — | 2 | 26 | 23% | — | — | — |
| Alberto Reina | M | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Santiago Colombatto | M | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 37 | 30% | — | — | — |
| Nicolas Fonseca | M | 79 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 36 | 34% | 3 | — | — |
| Thiago Fernández | F | 69 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Federico Viñas | F | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| Ilyas Chaira | F | 55 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 17 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Haissem Hassan | F | 21 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 5 | 3% | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Ahijado | D | 11 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | 1 | — | — |
| Pablo Agudín | M | 11 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Santi Cazorla | M | 35 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Oviedo?
The final score was Real Madrid 2–0 Oviedo.
What did the model predict before Real Madrid vs Oviedo?
The model assigned 73% probability to a Real Madrid win, 16% to a draw, and 10% to an Oviedo win.