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Real Madrid - RB Leipzig

Champions League October 21, 2026 21:00
#14 · 3 pts
vs
#32 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
54.42%
Win
Real Madrid
25.51%
Draw
20.08%
Win
RB Leipzig
1.68
Expected xG
0.68

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (13.95%)
1X2 Result
1 54%
X 26%
2 20%
Double Chance
1X 80%
X2 46%
12 75%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 85%
Over 2.5 67%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Real Madrid a 54% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 20% for RB Leipzig. Expected goals are 1.7 for Real Madrid and 0.7 for RB Leipzig (total 2.4), with a 85% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 13.95% probability.

Season Stats

Real Madrid
10W 0D 5L
RB Leipzig
0W 0D 1L
Averages per game
2.3
Goals
1.0
1.4
Conceded
4.0
7.0
Shots OT
4.0
5.6
Corners
5.0
52%
Poss.
51%
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
100%
80%
O 2.5
100%
67%
BTTS
100%
27%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Champions League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
57%
O 3.5
88%
BTTS
Real Madrid
6W 0D 2L · at home
RB Leipzig
0W 0D 1L · away
2.2
gls/g
1.0
1.0
Conceded
4.0
75%
Win %
0%
75%
Win or Draw
0%
88%
O 1.5
100%
88%
O 2.5
100%
13%
O 3.5
100%
75%
BTTS
100%
25%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 8
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Real Madrid RB Leipzig →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 9.4% 6.4% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% —
1 15.8% 10.8% 3.7% 0.8% 0.1% —
2 13.3% 9.1% 3.1% 0.7% 0.1% —
3 7.5% 5.1% 1.7% 0.4% 0.1% —
4 3.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% — —
5 1.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% — —

Recent form

W Inter 2–1
L Bayern München 4–3
L Bayern München 1–2
W Manchester City 1–2
W Manchester City 3–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 22%
L Como 4–1
Away clean sheet (120 days) 20%

Playing profile

Real Madrid Real Madrid
Attack
62
Defence
61
Form
68
RB Leipzig RB Leipzig
Attack
47
Defence
52
Form
32
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

League Table

# Team G Pts
1 Paris Saint Germain Paris Saint Germain 1 3
2 Bayern München Bayern München 1 3
3 Barcelona Barcelona 1 3
4 Manchester United Manchester United 1 3
5 Como Como 1 3
6 VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart 1 3
7 Sporting CP Sporting CP 1 3
8 Manchester City Manchester City 1 3
9 Aston Villa Aston Villa 1 3
10 Lens Lens 1 3
11 Real Betis Real Betis 1 3
12 Borussia Dortmund Borussia Dortmund 1 3
13 Liverpool Liverpool 1 3
14 Real Madrid Real Madrid 1 3
15 Arsenal Arsenal 1 3
16 AEK Athens FC AEK Athens FC 1 3
17 AS Roma AS Roma 1 1
18 Shakhtar Donetsk Shakhtar Donetsk 1 1
19 PSV Eindhoven PSV Eindhoven 1 1
20 Fenerbahçe Fenerbahçe 1 1
21 Villarreal Villarreal 1 0
22 Lille Lille 1 0
23 Slavia Praha Slavia Praha 1 0
24 Club Brugge KV Club Brugge KV 1 0
25 Inter Inter 1 0
26 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 1 0
27 Napoli Napoli 1 0
28 Lask Linz Lask Linz 1 0
29 Viking Viking 1 0
30 Galatasaray Galatasaray 1 0
31 FC Porto FC Porto 1 0
32 RB Leipzig RB Leipzig 1 0
33 Feyenoord Feyenoord 1 0
34 Sabah FA Sabah FA 1 0
35 Slovan Bratislava Slovan Bratislava 1 0
36 Bodo/Glimt Bodo/Glimt 1 0
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
The model gives Real Madrid a 54% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 20% for an RB Leipzig win.
How many goals are expected in Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
Expected goals: Real Madrid 1.7, RB Leipzig 0.7 (total 2.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 85%.
What is the most likely score in Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.95%.