Real Madrid - RB Leipzig
Champions League
October 21, 2026 21:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
54.42%
Win
Real Madrid
25.51%
Draw
20.08%
Win
RB Leipzig
1.68
0.68
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(13.95%)
1X2 Result
1
54%
X
26%
2
20%
Double Chance
1X
80%
X2
46%
12
75%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
85%
Over 2.5
67%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Real Madrid a 54% win probability, against 25% for a draw and 20% for RB Leipzig. Expected goals are 1.7 for Real Madrid and 0.7 for RB Leipzig (total 2.4), with a 85% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 13.95% probability.
Season Stats
10W
0D
5L
0W
0D
1L
Averages per game
2.3
Goals
1.0
1.4
Conceded
4.0
7.0
Shots OT
4.0
5.6
Corners
5.0
52%
Poss.
51%
Percentages
80%
O 1.5
100%
80%
O 2.5
100%
67%
BTTS
100%
27%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 15 matches in Champions League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
57%
O 3.5
88%
BTTS
6W
0D
2L
· at home
0W
0D
1L
· away
2.2
gls/g
1.0
1.0
Conceded
4.0
75%
Win %
0%
75%
Win or Draw
0%
88%
O 1.5
100%
88%
O 2.5
100%
13%
O 3.5
100%
75%
BTTS
100%
25%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
0%
last 8
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ Real Madrid
RB Leipzig →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4% | 6.4% | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 1 | 15.8% | 10.8% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.1% | — |
| 2 | 13.3% | 9.1% | 3.1% | 0.7% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 7.5% | 5.1% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | — |
| 4 | 3.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 5 | 1.1% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Real Madrid
Attack
62
Defence
61
Form
68
RB Leipzig
Attack
47
Defence
52
Form
32
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
League Table
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
1 | 3 |
| 2 |
Bayern München
|
1 | 3 |
| 3 |
Barcelona
|
1 | 3 |
| 4 |
Manchester United
|
1 | 3 |
| 5 |
Como
|
1 | 3 |
| 6 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
1 | 3 |
| 7 |
Sporting CP
|
1 | 3 |
| 8 |
Manchester City
|
1 | 3 |
| 9 |
Aston Villa
|
1 | 3 |
| 10 |
Lens
|
1 | 3 |
| 11 |
Real Betis
|
1 | 3 |
| 12 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
1 | 3 |
| 13 |
Liverpool
|
1 | 3 |
| 14 |
Real Madrid
|
1 | 3 |
| 15 |
Arsenal
|
1 | 3 |
| 16 |
AEK Athens FC
|
1 | 3 |
| 17 |
AS Roma
|
1 | 1 |
| 18 |
Shakhtar Donetsk
|
1 | 1 |
| 19 |
PSV Eindhoven
|
1 | 1 |
| 20 |
Fenerbahçe
|
1 | 1 |
| 21 |
Villarreal
|
1 | 0 |
| 22 |
Lille
|
1 | 0 |
| 23 |
Slavia Praha
|
1 | 0 |
| 24 |
Club Brugge KV
|
1 | 0 |
| 25 |
Inter
|
1 | 0 |
| 26 |
Atletico Madrid
|
1 | 0 |
| 27 |
Napoli
|
1 | 0 |
| 28 |
Lask Linz
|
1 | 0 |
| 29 |
Viking
|
1 | 0 |
| 30 |
Galatasaray
|
1 | 0 |
| 31 |
FC Porto
|
1 | 0 |
| 32 |
RB Leipzig
|
1 | 0 |
| 33 |
Feyenoord
|
1 | 0 |
| 34 |
Sabah FA
|
1 | 0 |
| 35 |
Slovan Bratislava
|
1 | 0 |
| 36 |
Bodo/Glimt
|
1 | 0 |
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
The model gives Real Madrid a 54% win probability, 25% for a draw, and 20% for an RB Leipzig win.
How many goals are expected in Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
Expected goals: Real Madrid 1.7, RB Leipzig 0.7 (total 2.4). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 85%.
What is the most likely score in Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.95%.