✓Model correct — prediction Real Madrid
Bernardo Silva
43'
Arda Güler
(ast. Kylian Mbappé)
52'
Kylian Mbappé
(ast. Yan Diomande)
83'
Yan Diomande
(ast. Brahim Díaz)
87'
85'
(ast. Christoph Baumgartner)
Tidiam Gomis
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 61% win probability (draw 19%, RB Leipzig 19%). The final result was Real Madrid 4–1 RB Leipzig.
Match statistics
18
Total shots
11
11
Shots on target
6
2.95
Actual xG
1.46
5
Saves
6
65%
Possession
35%
7
Corners
1
14
Tackles
13
1
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
⚽Bernardo Silva
43'
⚽Arda Güler
· ast. Kylian Mbappé
52'
63'
Rocco Reitz
/
Neil El Aynaoui
63'
Andrija Maksimović
/
Brajan Gruda
Álvaro Fernández Carreras
68'
70'
Rocco Reitz
Vinícius
/ Yan Diomande
70'
Álvaro Fernández Carreras
/ Marc Cucurella
70'
73'
Max Finkgräfe
/
David Raum
73'
Tidiam Gomis
/
Antonio Nusa
78'
Christoph Baumgartner
/
Christopher Nkunku
Arda Güler
/ Brahim Díaz
78'
⚽Kylian Mbappé
· ast. Yan Diomande
83'
85'
ast. Christoph Baumgartner ·
Tidiam Gomis⚽
⚽Yan Diomande
· ast. Brahim Díaz
87'
Kylian Mbappé
/ Carlos Espí
88'
Jude Bellingham
/ Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa
88'
Pre-match prediction
61.18%
Real ←
19.35%
X
19.47%
RB
✓ Correct prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid)
61.18%
(high confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.44
2.95
+0.51
1.27
1.46
+0.19
Real Madrid dominated by xG (2.95 vs 1.46).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
T. Courtois
G
T. Courtois
G
18
Álvaro Fernández
70'
D
Álvaro Fernández
70'
D
4
D. Huijsen
D
D. Huijsen
D
22
A. Rüdiger
D
A. Rüdiger
D
8
F. Valverde
D
F. Valverde
D
20
Bernardo Silva
1 ⚽
M
Bernardo Silva
1 ⚽
M
6
E. Camavinga
M
E. Camavinga
M
7
Vinícius Júnior
70'
M
Vinícius Júnior
70'
M
5
J. Bellingham
88'
M
J. Bellingham
88'
M
15
A. Güler
1 ⚽
78'
M
A. Güler
1 ⚽
78'
M
10
Kylian Mbappé
1 ⚽
1 👟
88'
F
Kylian Mbappé
1 ⚽
1 👟
88'
F
Bench
13
A. Lunin
G
A. Lunin
G
14
A. Tchouaméni
M
A. Tchouaméni
M
21
Brahim Díaz
1 👟
12'
M
Brahim Díaz
1 👟
12'
M
19
Carlos Espí
2'
F
Carlos Espí
2'
F
24
D. Dumfries
D
D. Dumfries
D
3
Éder Militão
D
Éder Militão
D
9
Endrick
2'
F
Endrick
2'
F
16
I. Konaté
D
I. Konaté
D
17
Marc Cucurella
20'
D
Marc Cucurella
20'
D
12
T. Alexander-Arnold
D
T. Alexander-Arnold
D
27
Thiago Pitarch
M
Thiago Pitarch
M
25
Y. Diomande
1 ⚽
1 👟
20'
F
Y. Diomande
1 ⚽
1 👟
20'
F
26
M. Vandevoordt
G
M. Vandevoordt
G
22
D. Raum
73'
D
D. Raum
73'
D
23
C. Lukeba
D
C. Lukeba
D
4
W. Orbán
D
W. Orbán
D
17
R. Baku
D
R. Baku
D
21
N. El Aynaoui
63'
M
N. El Aynaoui
63'
M
13
N. Seiwald
M
N. Seiwald
M
7
A. Nusa
73'
M
A. Nusa
73'
M
28
C. Nkunku
78'
M
C. Nkunku
78'
M
10
B. Gruda
63'
M
B. Gruda
63'
M
40
Rômulo
F
Rômulo
F
Bench
2
A. Koné
D
A. Koné
D
30
A. MaksimoviÄ
27'
M
A. MaksimoviÄ
27'
M
39
B. Henrichs
D
B. Henrichs
D
14
C. Baumgartner
1 👟
12'
M
C. Baumgartner
1 👟
12'
M
6
E. Banzuzi
M
E. Banzuzi
M
11
J. Bakayoko
F
J. Bakayoko
F
16
L. Klostermann
D
L. Klostermann
D
35
Max Finkgräfe
17'
D
Max Finkgräfe
17'
D
3
M. Estève
D
M. Estève
D
1
Ø. Nyland
G
Ø. Nyland
G
20
R. Reitz
27'
M
R. Reitz
27'
M
27
T. Gomis
1 ⚽
17'
F
T. Gomis
1 ⚽
17'
F
Best on the pitch
Kylian Mbappé
F · Real
8.42
1 ⚽ 1 👟
4 shots
· 35 pass
Bernardo Silva
M · Real
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 81 pass
A. Güler
M · Real
8.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 58 pass
T. Courtois
G · Real
7.89
· 36 pass
Y. Diomande
F · Real
7.55
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 9 pass
F. Valverde
D · Real
7.25
2 shots
· 93 pass
Real Madrid — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Courtois | G | 90 | 7.89 | — | — | 0 | 36 | 33% | 0 | — | — |
| Álvaro Fernández | D | 70 | 6.37 | — | — | 0 | 59 | 54% | 3 | 1 | — |
| D. Huijsen | D | 90 | 7.14 | — | — | 0 | 101 | 96% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Rüdiger | D | 90 | 6.63 | — | — | 0 | 75 | 72% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Valverde | D | 90 | 7.25 | — | — | 2 | 93 | 81% | 4 | — | — |
| Bernardo Silva | M | 90 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 81 | 76% | 0 | — | — |
| E. Camavinga | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 71 | 65% | 4 | — | — |
| Vinícius Júnior | M | 70 | 6.29 | — | — | 3 | 35 | 29% | 2 | — | — |
| J. Bellingham | M | 88 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 54 | 47% | 0 | — | — |
| A. Güler | M | 78 | 8.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 58 | 54% | 0 | — | — |
| Kylian Mbappé | F | 88 | 8.42 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 35 | 31% | 0 | — | — |
| Brahim Díaz | M | 12 | 6.30 | — | 1 | 0 | 11 | 11% | 0 | — | — |
| Carlos Espí | F | 2 | 6.55 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 0% | 0 | — | — |
| Endrick | F | 2 | 6.58 | — | — | 0 | 2 | 2% | 0 | — | — |
| Marc Cucurella | D | 20 | 5.94 | — | — | 0 | 17 | 16% | 0 | — | — |
| Y. Diomande | F | 20 | 7.55 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 8% | 0 | — | — |
RB Leipzig — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Vandevoordt | G | 90 | 6.97 | — | — | 0 | 34 | 24% | 0 | — | — |
| D. Raum | D | 73 | 6.35 | — | — | 0 | 39 | 32% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Lukeba | D | 90 | 5.78 | — | — | 0 | 44 | 39% | 1 | — | — |
| W. Orbán | D | 90 | 6.18 | — | — | 0 | 35 | 31% | 1 | — | — |
| R. Baku | D | 90 | 6.44 | — | — | 2 | 38 | 34% | 2 | — | — |
| N. El Aynaoui | M | 63 | 6.71 | — | — | 0 | 37 | 36% | 0 | — | — |
| N. Seiwald | M | 90 | 6.21 | — | — | 0 | 49 | 47% | 1 | — | — |
| A. Nusa | M | 73 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 13 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| C. Nkunku | M | 78 | 6.01 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 22% | 0 | — | — |
| B. Gruda | M | 63 | 6.63 | — | — | 0 | 32 | 29% | 0 | — | — |
| Rômulo | F | 90 | 6.26 | — | — | 4 | 16 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| A. MaksimoviÄ | M | 27 | 5.88 | — | — | 0 | 10 | 10% | 0 | — | — |
| C. Baumgartner | M | 12 | 6.09 | — | 1 | 0 | 6 | 6% | 0 | — | — |
| Max Finkgräfe | D | 17 | 5.95 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | 3 | — | — |
| R. Reitz | M | 27 | 5.60 | — | — | 0 | 13 | 11% | 0 | 1 | — |
| T. Gomis | F | 17 | 7.23 | 1 | — | 1 | 3 | 3% | 0 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
The final score was Real Madrid 4–1 RB Leipzig.
What did the model predict before Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig?
The model assigned 61% probability to a Real Madrid win, 19% to a draw, and 19% to an RB Leipzig win.