Real Madrid 4–1 Real Sociedad — pre-match prediction — La Liga — August 26, 2026

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La Liga · Regular Season - 1 August 26, 2026 21:00 Estadio Enrique Roca, Murcia

Real Madrid

#4 · 9 pts

4 – 1

Final score

Real Sociedad

#10 · 7 pts

K. Mbappe (ast. F. Valverde) 40'

K. Mbappe (ast. J. Bellingham) 60'

Vinicius Junior (ast. J. Bellingham) 68'

K. Mbappe (ast. Vinicius Junior) 80'

44' L. Sucic

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 42% win probability (draw 29%, Real Sociedad 28%). The final result was Real Madrid 4–1 Real Sociedad. In 2 previous meetings, Real Madrid have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Real Sociedad.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

3.14

Actual xG

0.57

Saves

50%

Possession

50%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

A. Carreras

10'

31'

Y. Herrera

⚽K. Mbappe · ast. F. Valverde

40'

44'

L. Sucic⚽

45'+2

J. Aramburu

↕ A. Carreras / M. Cucurella

46'

57'

O. Oskarsson / M. Oyarzabal ↕

57'

I. Zubeldia / J. Aramburu ↕

⚽K. Mbappe · ast. J. Bellingham

60'

66'

A. Barrenetxea / J. Ochieng ↕

66'

C. Soler / Y. Herrera ↕

⚽Vinicius Junior · ast. J. Bellingham

68'

71'

L. Beitia

I. Konate

73'

74'

G. Guedes / T. Kubo ↕

↕ J. Bellingham / E. Camavinga

78'

↕ A. Guler / B. Diaz

78'

⚽K. Mbappe · ast. Vinicius Junior

80'

↕ Vinicius Junior / Y. Diomande

84'

↕ B. Silva / C. Espi

86'

E. Camavinga

90'+4

90'

Pre-match prediction

42.42%

Real ←

29.32%

28.26%

Real

we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid) 42.42% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Real

1.60

3.14

+1.55

Real

0.92

0.57

-0.35

Real Madrid dominated by xG (3.14 vs 0.57). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Barcelona	4	12
2	Alaves	5	10
3	Sevilla	5	10
4	Real Madrid	4	9
5	Real Betis	4	9
6	Deportivo La Coruna	4	8
7	Espanyol	5	7
8	Atletico Madrid	4	7
9	Racing Santander	5	7
10	Real Sociedad	5	7
11	Osasuna	5	7
12	Athletic Club	4	6
13	Levante	4	5
14	Rayo Vallecano	4	4
15	Getafe	4	4
16	Celta Vigo	5	3
17	Villarreal	4	2
18	Malaga	4	2
19	Elche	4	1
20	Valencia	5	1

Lineups

Real Madrid 4-2-3-1

T. Courtois 88' G 6.70

Álvaro Fernández 45' D 6.30

D. Huijsen 88' D 7.30

I. Konaté 88' D 7.20

D. Dumfries 88' D 6.20

Bernardo Silva 86' M 7.00

F. Valverde 1 👟 88' M 7.60

Vinícius Júnior 1 ⚽ 1 👟 84' M 7.90

J. Bellingham 2 👟 78' M 9.00

A. Güler 78' M 7.50

Kylian Mbappé 3 ⚽ 88' F 10.00

Bench

Alexis Ciria M

A. Lunin G

A. Rüdiger D

Brahim Díaz 10' M 6.30

Carlos Espí 2' F

E. Camavinga 10' M 6.90

J. Cestero Sancho M

Marc Cucurella 43' D 6.90

Mario Rivas D

Sergio Mestre G

T. Alexander-Arnold D

Y. Diomande 4' F

Real Sociedad 4-2-3-1

Álex Remiro 88' G 7.90

Sergio Gómez 88' D 6.00

Jon Martín 88' D 6.20

Luken Beitia 88' D 5.60

J. Aramburu 57' D 6.20

Beñat Turrientes 88' M 7.00

Y. Herrera 66' M 6.50

J. Ochieng 66' M 6.30

L. Sučić 1 ⚽ 88' M 7.30

T. Kubo 74' M 6.20

Mikel Oyarzabal 57' F 6.30

Bench

Aihen Muñoz D

Alex Garcia F

Alex Lebarbier M

A. Zakharyan M

Barrenetxea 22' F 6.60

Carlos Soler 22' M 6.90

Gonçalo Guedes 14' F 6.50

Ibai Aguirre M

Jon Pacheco D

O. Óskarsson 31' F 6.30

Unai Marrero G

Zubeldia 31' D 6.20

Best on the pitch

Kylian Mbappé

F · Real

10.00

3 ⚽

7 shots · 37 pass

J. Bellingham

M · Real

9.00

2 👟

· 42 pass

Vinícius Júnior

M · Real

7.90

1 ⚽ 1 👟

3 shots · 31 pass

Álex Remiro

G · Real

7.90

· 32 pass

F. Valverde

M · Real

7.60

1 👟

1 shots · 56 pass

A. Güler

M · Real

7.50

1 shots · 47 pass

Real Madrid — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
T. Courtois	G	88	6.70	—	—	—	22	19%	—	—	—
Álvaro Fernández	D	45	6.30	—	—	—	35	32%	—	1	—
D. Huijsen	D	88	7.30	—	—	2	64	61%	1	—	—
I. Konaté	D	88	7.20	—	—	—	48	46%	2	1	—
D. Dumfries	D	88	6.20	—	—	—	40	38%	1	—	—
Bernardo Silva	M	86	7.00	—	—	—	71	63%	4	—	—
F. Valverde	M	88	7.60	—	1	1	56	52%	2	—	—
Vinícius Júnior	M	84	7.90	1	1	3	31	24%	—	—	—
J. Bellingham	M	78	9.00	—	2	—	42	40%	2	—	—
A. Güler	M	78	7.50	—	—	1	47	42%	2	—	—
Kylian Mbappé	F	88	10.00	3	—	7	37	34%	—	—	—
Brahim Díaz	M	10	6.30	—	—	—	7	7%	1	—	—
Carlos Espí	F	2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
E. Camavinga	M	10	6.90	—	—	—	10	9%	1	—	—
Marc Cucurella	D	43	6.90	—	—	—	21	18%	2	—	—
Y. Diomande	F	4	—	—	—	—	2	—	—	—	—

Real Sociedad — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Álex Remiro	G	88	7.90	—	—	—	32	25%	—	—	—
Sergio Gómez	D	88	6.00	—	—	2	70	63%	1	—	—
Jon Martín	D	88	6.20	—	—	—	49	47%	1	—	—
Luken Beitia	D	88	5.60	—	—	—	55	52%	—	1	—
J. Aramburu	D	57	6.20	—	—	1	34	30%	—	1	—
Beñat Turrientes	M	88	7.00	—	—	1	72	71%	2	—	—
Y. Herrera	M	66	6.50	—	—	—	41	37%	2	1	—
J. Ochieng	M	66	6.30	—	—	—	13	10%	—	—	—
L. Sučić	M	88	7.30	1	—	2	53	52%	—	—	—
T. Kubo	M	74	6.20	—	—	—	16	12%	—	—	—
Mikel Oyarzabal	F	57	6.30	—	—	1	26	21%	—	—	—
Barrenetxea	F	22	6.60	—	—	—	7	7%	—	—	—
Carlos Soler	M	22	6.90	—	—	—	20	18%	3	—	—
Gonçalo Guedes	F	14	6.50	—	—	—	8	8%	—	—	—
O. Óskarsson	F	31	6.30	—	—	—	8	6%	—	—	—
Zubeldia	D	31	6.20	—	—	—	18	17%	3	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?

The final score was Real Madrid 4–1 Real Sociedad.

What did the model predict before Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad?

The model assigned 42% probability to a Real Madrid win, 29% to a draw, and 28% to an Real Sociedad win.