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La Liga · Regular Season - 9 October 18, 2026 21:00 Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid
Real Madrid
#3 · 24 pts
4 – 1
Final score
Sevilla
#6 · 17 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Real Madrid
Arda Güler (ast. Yan Diomande) 30'
Kylian Mbappé (ast. Jude Bellingham) 37'
Kylian Mbappé 63' (pen.)
Yan Diomande (ast. Aurelien Tchouameni) 82'
80' (ast. Lucas Stassin) Manuel Bueno Sebastián
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 55% win probability (draw 21%, Sevilla 22%). The final result was Real Madrid 4–1 Sevilla. In 2 previous meetings, Real Madrid have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Sevilla.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
11
8
Shots on target
5
2.32
Actual xG
0.81
4
Saves
3
65%
Possession
35%
1
Corners
2
18
Tackles
20
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
23'
Felix Correia
Dean Huijsen
23'
⚽Arda Güler · ast. Yan Diomande
30'
⚽Kylian Mbappé · ast. Jude Bellingham
37'
45'
Chidera Ejuke / Rubén Vargas ↕
56'
Lucas Stassin / Robbie Ure ↕
56'
Manuel Bueno Sebastián / Peque Fernández ↕
⚽Kylian Mbappé (pen.)
63'
69'
Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez
↕ Endrick Felipe Moreira de Sousa / Brahim Díaz
69'
↕ Jude Bellingham / Bernardo Silva
70'
72'
José Ángel Carmona / Juan Antonio Iglesias Sánchez ↕
73'
Alfonso González Martínez / Felix Correia ↕
Marc Cucurella
73'
↕ Arda Güler / Eduardo Camavinga
78'
80'
ast. Lucas Stassin · Manuel Bueno Sebastián⚽
⚽Yan Diomande · ast. Aurelien Tchouameni
82'
↕ Kylian Mbappé / Carlos Espí
85'
↕ Federico Valverde / Éder Militão
85'
Pre-match prediction
55.91%
Real ←
21.99%
X
22.1%
Sevilla
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid) 55.91% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Real
3.40
2.32
-1.08
Sevilla
1.58
0.81
-0.77
Real Madrid dominated by xG (2.32 vs 0.81). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Barcelona Barcelona 10 27
2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 10 25
3 Real Madrid Real Madrid 10 24
4 Real Betis Real Betis 10 20
5 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 10 19
6 Sevilla Sevilla 10 17
7 Alaves Alaves 10 12
8 Athletic Club Athletic Club 9 12
9 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 10 12
10 Villarreal Villarreal 10 12
11 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 10 11
12 Osasuna Osasuna 10 11
13 Racing Santander Racing Santander 10 11
14 Levante Levante 10 10
15 Elche Elche 10 10
16 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 9 9
17 Getafe Getafe 10 9
18 Espanyol Espanyol 10 8
19 Valencia Valencia 10 6
20 Malaga Malaga 10 5
Lineups
Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
1 T. Courtois T. Courtois G 7.46
17 Marc Cucurella Marc Cucurella D 6.52
4 D. Huijsen D. Huijsen D 6.84
16 I. Konaté I. Konaté D 7.17
8 F. Valverde F. Valverde 85' D 7.25
14 A. Tchouaméni A. Tchouaméni 1 👟 M 7.70
15 A. Güler A. Güler 1 ⚽ 78' M 8.20
25 Y. Diomande Y. Diomande 1 ⚽ 1 👟 M 9.00
5 J. Bellingham J. Bellingham 1 👟 70' M 7.70
9 Endrick Endrick 69' M 6.22
10 Kylian Mbappé Kylian Mbappé 2 ⚽ 85' F 8.20
Bench
13 A. Lunin A. Lunin G 0.00
18 Álvaro Fernández Álvaro Fernández D 0.00
22 A. Rüdiger A. Rüdiger D 0.00
20 Bernardo Silva Bernardo Silva 20' M 6.96
21 Brahim Díaz Brahim Díaz 21' M 6.40
19 Carlos Espí Carlos Espí 5' F 6.49
24 D. Dumfries D. Dumfries D 0.00
6 E. Camavinga E. Camavinga 12' M 6.31
3 Éder Militão Éder Militão 5' D 6.63
31 Javier Navarro Javier Navarro G 0.00
12 T. Alexander-Arnold T. Alexander-Arnold D 0.00
27 Thiago Pitarch Thiago Pitarch M 0.00
Sevilla Sevilla 4-2-3-1
1 O. Vlachodimos O. Vlachodimos G 5.69
17 G. Suazo G. Suazo D 6.42
4 Kike Salas Kike Salas D 5.88
5 Andrés Castrín Andrés Castrín D 6.04
2 Juan Iglesias Juan Iglesias 72' D 4.84
24 Y. Fofana Y. Fofana M 6.25
6 L. Agoumé L. Agoumé M 6.10
20 Félix Correia Félix Correia 73' M 5.38
10 Peque Fernández Peque Fernández 56' M 6.18
11 R. Vargas R. Vargas 45' M 5.86
9 R. Ure R. Ure 56' F 6.28
Bench
7 Alfon González Alfon González 17' F 6.26
12 A. Sangante A. Sangante D 0.00
21 C. Ejuke C. Ejuke 45' F 6.72
15 Fábio Cardoso Fábio Cardoso D 0.00
13 Fran González Fran González G 0.00
22 José Ángel Carmona José Ángel Carmona 18' D 5.77
3 Julio Díaz del Romo Julio Díaz del Romo D 0.00
19 L. Stassin L. Stassin 1 👟 34' F 6.55
14 Manu Bueno Manu Bueno 1 ⚽ 34' M 6.85
27 N. Guillen N. Guillen M 0.00
33 Rafael Romero Rafael Romero G 0.00
Best on the pitch
Y. Diomande
Y. Diomande
M · Real
9.00
1 ⚽ 1 👟
4 shots · 65 pass
A. Güler
A. Güler
M · Real
8.20
1 ⚽
1 shots · 64 pass
Kylian Mbappé
Kylian Mbappé
F · Real
8.20
2 ⚽
5 shots · 32 pass
A. Tchouaméni
A. Tchouaméni
M · Real
7.70
1 👟
1 shots · 69 pass
J. Bellingham
J. Bellingham
M · Real
7.70
1 👟
· 46 pass
T. Courtois
T. Courtois
G · Real
7.46
· 38 pass
Real Madrid Real Madrid — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
T. Courtois G 90 7.46 — — 0 38 36% 0 — —
Marc Cucurella D 90 6.52 — — 0 72 62% 1 1 —
D. Huijsen D 90 6.84 — — 0 94 91% 1 1 —
I. Konaté D 90 7.17 — — 0 68 64% 3 — —
F. Valverde D 85 7.25 — — 1 39 35% 3 — —
A. Tchouaméni M 90 7.70 — 1 1 69 64% 4 — —
A. Güler M 78 8.20 1 — 1 64 60% 2 — —
Y. Diomande M 90 9.00 1 1 4 65 58% 2 — —
J. Bellingham M 70 7.70 — 1 0 46 41% 2 — —
Endrick M 69 6.22 — — 3 17 11% 0 — —
Kylian Mbappé F 85 8.20 2 — 5 32 25% 0 — —
Bernardo Silva M 20 6.96 — — 0 23 21% 0 — —
Brahim Díaz M 21 6.40 — — 0 11 10% 0 — —
Carlos Espí F 5 6.49 — — 0 1 1% 0 — —
E. Camavinga M 12 6.31 — — 0 18 16% 0 — —
Éder Militão D 5 6.63 — — 0 10 10% 0 — —
Sevilla Sevilla — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
O. Vlachodimos G 90 5.69 — — 0 22 12% 0 — —
G. Suazo D 90 6.42 — — 0 26 21% 5 — —
Kike Salas D 90 5.88 — — 1 38 32% 2 — —
Andrés Castrín D 90 6.04 — — 0 41 37% 1 — —
Juan Iglesias D 72 4.84 — — 1 22 14% 3 1 —
Y. Fofana M 90 6.25 — — 2 39 32% 2 — —
L. Agoumé M 90 6.10 — — 1 46 35% 4 — —
Félix Correia M 73 5.38 — — 1 22 16% 0 1 —
Peque Fernández M 56 6.18 — — 0 22 19% 1 — —
R. Vargas M 45 5.86 — — 1 15 13% 0 — —
R. Ure F 56 6.28 — — 1 3 3% 0 — —
Alfon González F 17 6.26 — — 0 4 3% 0 — —
C. Ejuke F 45 6.72 — — 1 14 12% 0 — —
José Ángel Carmona D 18 5.77 — — 0 8 7% 1 — —
L. Stassin F 34 6.55 — 1 0 11 10% 0 — —
Manu Bueno M 34 6.85 1 — 2 17 15% 1 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
The final score was Real Madrid 4–1 Sevilla.
What did the model predict before Real Madrid vs Sevilla?
The model assigned 55% probability to a Real Madrid win, 21% to a draw, and 22% to an Sevilla win.