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La Liga · Regular Season - 8 October 10, 2026 21:00 Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, Madrid
Real Madrid
#3 · 24 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Villarreal
#10 · 12 pts
✓Model correct — prediction Real Madrid
Yan Diomande (ast. Federico Valverde) 62'
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Madrid a 51% win probability (draw 22%, Villarreal 25%). The final result was Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal. In 2 previous meetings, Real Madrid have won 2 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Villarreal.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
15
4
Shots on target
4
1.47
Actual xG
0.62
4
Saves
3
46%
Possession
54%
9
Corners
3
19
Tackles
15
5
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
10'
Renato Veiga
Jude Bellingham
19'
↕ Álvaro Fernández Carreras / Marc Cucurella
45'
↕ Trent Alexander-Arnold / Vinícius
52'
56'
Nathan-Dylan Saliba / Santi Comesaña ↕
56'
Carlos Romero / Juan Foyth ↕
⚽Yan Diomande · ast. Federico Valverde
62'
63'
67'
Gerard Moreno / Ilias Akhomach Chakkour ↕
67'
Georges Mikautadze / Sergi Cardona Bermúdez ↕
José Mário dos Santos Mourinho Félix
68'
72'
Vinícius
72'
↕ Arda Güler / Eduardo Camavinga
77'
Ibrahima Konaté
81'
Antonio Rüdiger
83'
84'
Pau Navarro
↕ Yan Diomande / Denzel Dumfries
86'
86'
Nizar El Jmili / Alberto Moleiro ↕
Aurelien Tchouameni
87'
Kylian Mbappé
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
51.6%
Real ←
22.97%
X
25.43%
Villarreal
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Real Madrid) 51.6% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Real
3.96
1.47
-2.49
Villarreal
2.61
0.62
-1.99
Real Madrid dominated by xG (1.47 vs 0.62). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Barcelona Barcelona 10 27
2 Atletico Madrid Atletico Madrid 10 25
3 Real Madrid Real Madrid 10 24
4 Real Betis Real Betis 10 20
5 Real Sociedad Real Sociedad 10 19
6 Sevilla Sevilla 10 17
7 Alaves Alaves 10 12
8 Athletic Club Athletic Club 9 12
9 Celta Vigo Celta Vigo 10 12
10 Villarreal Villarreal 10 12
11 Deportivo La Coruna Deportivo La Coruna 10 11
12 Osasuna Osasuna 10 11
13 Racing Santander Racing Santander 10 11
14 Levante Levante 10 10
15 Elche Elche 10 10
16 Rayo Vallecano Rayo Vallecano 9 9
17 Getafe Getafe 10 9
18 Espanyol Espanyol 10 8
19 Valencia Valencia 10 6
20 Malaga Malaga 10 5
Lineups
Real Madrid Real Madrid 4-2-3-1
1 T. Courtois T. Courtois G 7.67
18 Álvaro Fernández Álvaro Fernández 45' D 7.18
22 A. Rüdiger A. Rüdiger D 6.76
16 I. Konaté I. Konaté D 6.69
12 T. Alexander-Arnold T. Alexander-Arnold 52' D 6.72
14 A. Tchouaméni A. Tchouaméni M 6.52
8 F. Valverde F. Valverde 1 👟 M 7.70
25 Y. Diomande Y. Diomande 1 ⚽ 86' M 8.20
5 J. Bellingham J. Bellingham M 6.48
15 A. Güler A. Güler 77' M 6.75
10 Kylian Mbappé Kylian Mbappé F 6.26
Bench
13 A. Lunin A. Lunin G 0.00
20 Bernardo Silva Bernardo Silva M 0.00
21 Brahim Díaz Brahim Díaz M 0.00
19 Carlos Espí Carlos Espí F 0.00
24 D. Dumfries D. Dumfries 4' D 6.10
6 E. Camavinga E. Camavinga 13' M 6.56
9 Endrick Endrick F 0.00
17 Marc Cucurella Marc Cucurella 45' D 6.62
26 Sergio Mestre Sergio Mestre G 0.00
27 Thiago Pitarch Thiago Pitarch M 0.00
7 Vinícius Júnior Vinícius Júnior 20' F 5.94
Villarreal Villarreal 4-2-3-1
25 P. Gulácsi P. Gulácsi G 6.54
23 Sergi Cardona Sergi Cardona 67' D 6.56
12 Renato Veiga Renato Veiga D 6.15
6 Pau Navarro Pau Navarro D 6.29
3 A. Freeman A. Freeman D 7.35
18 P. Gueye P. Gueye M 6.81
8 J. Foyth J. Foyth 56' M 6.76
10 Alberto Moleiro Alberto Moleiro 86' M 5.94
14 Santi Comesaña Santi Comesaña 56' M 6.50
11 Ilias Akhomach Ilias Akhomach 67' M 6.42
22 Ayoze Pérez Ayoze Pérez F 6.08
Bench
5 A. Diatta A. Diatta M 0.00
20 Carlos Romero Carlos Romero 34' D 6.69
16 C. Macia C. Macia M 0.00
7 Gerard Moreno Gerard Moreno 23' F 6.28
9 G. Mikautadze G. Mikautadze 23' F 6.70
2 Logan Costa Logan Costa D 0.00
1 Luíz Júnior Luíz Júnior G 0.00
27 N. El Jmili N. El Jmili 4' F 6.16
24 N. Saliba N. Saliba 34' M 7.05
15 S. Mouriño S. Mouriño D 0.00
21 T. Oluwaseyi T. Oluwaseyi F 0.00
Best on the pitch
Y. Diomande
Y. Diomande
M · Real
8.20
1 ⚽
2 shots · 28 pass
F. Valverde
F. Valverde
M · Real
7.70
1 👟
· 44 pass
T. Courtois
T. Courtois
G · Real
7.67
· 36 pass
A. Freeman
A. Freeman
D · Villarreal
7.35
· 53 pass
Álvaro Fernández
Álvaro Fernández
D · Real
7.18
· 29 pass
N. Saliba
N. Saliba
M · Villarreal
7.05
1 shots · 31 pass
Real Madrid Real Madrid — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
T. Courtois G 90 7.67 — — 0 36 25% 0 — —
Álvaro Fernández D 45 7.18 — — 0 29 25% 3 — —
A. Rüdiger D 90 6.76 — — 0 36 33% 2 1 —
I. Konaté D 90 6.69 — — 1 39 34% 2 1 —
T. Alexander-Arnold D 52 6.72 — — 0 28 23% 0 — —
A. Tchouaméni M 90 6.52 — — 1 41 39% 0 1 —
F. Valverde M 90 7.70 — 1 0 44 34% 1 — —
Y. Diomande M 86 8.20 1 — 2 28 24% 3 — —
J. Bellingham M 90 6.48 — — 2 31 22% 1 1 —
A. Güler M 77 6.75 — — 1 40 36% 1 — —
Kylian Mbappé F 90 6.26 — — 3 19 17% 0 1 —
D. Dumfries D 4 6.10 — — 0 1 1% 0 — —
E. Camavinga M 13 6.56 — — 0 5 4% 1 — —
Marc Cucurella D 45 6.62 — — 0 22 16% 5 — —
Vinícius Júnior F 20 5.94 — — 1 7 5% 0 — 1
Villarreal Villarreal — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
P. Gulácsi G 90 6.54 — — 0 22 17% 0 — —
Sergi Cardona D 67 6.56 — — 0 30 25% 0 — —
Renato Veiga D 90 6.15 — — 2 68 56% 0 1 —
Pau Navarro D 90 6.29 — — 0 64 58% 1 1 —
A. Freeman D 90 7.35 — — 0 53 48% 7 — —
P. Gueye M 90 6.81 — — 4 46 40% 2 — —
J. Foyth M 56 6.76 — — 0 36 35% 1 — —
Alberto Moleiro M 86 5.94 — — 2 32 30% 0 — —
Santi Comesaña M 56 6.50 — — 0 24 20% 1 — —
Ilias Akhomach M 67 6.42 — — 1 14 13% 2 — —
Ayoze Pérez F 90 6.08 — — 1 16 16% 0 — —
Carlos Romero D 34 6.69 — — 1 18 16% 1 — —
Gerard Moreno F 23 6.28 — — 1 12 11% 0 — —
G. Mikautadze F 23 6.70 — — 2 7 6% 0 — —
N. El Jmili F 4 6.16 — — 0 5 4% 0 — —
N. Saliba M 34 7.05 — — 1 31 28% 0 — —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
The final score was Real Madrid 1–0 Villarreal.
What did the model predict before Real Madrid vs Villarreal?
The model assigned 51% probability to a Real Madrid win, 22% to a draw, and 25% to an Villarreal win.