La Liga
· Regular Season - 31
April 11, 2026 14:00
✗Model wrong — prediction Real Sociedad, result Draw
L. Sucic
(ast. A. Barrenetxea)
14'
A. Sivera
27'
(og)
O. Oskarsson
(ast. T. Kubo)
60'
(og)
3'
D. Caleta-Car
24'
I. Diabate
90'+7
(ast. D. Suarez)
L. Boye
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Real Sociedad a 60% win probability (draw 20%, Alaves 19%). The final result was Real Sociedad 3–3 Alaves. In 2 previous meetings, Real Sociedad have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Alaves.
Match statistics
8
Total shots
9
4
Shots on target
2
0.94
Actual xG
1.01
0
Saves
2
54%
Possession
46%
8
Corners
5
16
Tackles
15
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
1
🟥 Red cards
0
Match Events
3'
(og)
D. Caleta-Car⚽
⚽L. Sucic
· ast. A. Barrenetxea
14'
24'
I. Diabate⚽
⚽A. Sivera
(og)
27'
A. Barrenetxea
/ G. Guedes
46'
B. Mendez
/ T. Kubo
54'
59'
A. Rebbach
60'
L. Boye
/
I. Diabate
⚽O. Oskarsson
· ast. T. Kubo
60'
T. Kubo
64'
66'
A. Perez
66'
C. Alena
/
J. Guridi
66'
A. Guevara
/
P. Ibanez
O. Oskarsson
/ P. Marin
72'
86'
D. Suarez
/
A. Perez
L. Sucic
/ L. Beitia
86'
A. Elustondo
/ A. Munoz
86'
P. Matarazzo
90'+2
S. Gomez
90'+3
90'+7
ast. D. Suarez ·
L. Boye⚽
G. Guedes
90'+9
90'+10
D. Suarez
Pre-match prediction
60.76%
Real
20.13%
X ←
19.12%
Alaves
✗ Wrong prediction —
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
20.13%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
2.22
0.94
-1.28
1.25
1.01
-0.24
xG dominance was balanced (0.94 – 1.01).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
17
Sergio Gómez
D
Sergio Gómez
D
16
D. Ćaleta-Car
1 ⚽
D
D. Ćaleta-Car
1 ⚽
D
6
Elustondo
86'
D
Elustondo
86'
D
2
J. Aramburu
D
J. Aramburu
D
18
Carlos Soler
M
Carlos Soler
M
8
Beñat Turrientes
M
Beñat Turrientes
M
7
Barrenetxea
1 👟
45'
M
Barrenetxea
1 👟
45'
M
23
Brais Méndez
54'
M
Brais Méndez
54'
M
24
L. Sučić
1 ⚽
86'
M
L. Sučić
1 ⚽
86'
M
9
O. Óskarsson
1 ⚽
72'
F
O. Óskarsson
1 ⚽
72'
F
Bench
3
Aihen Muñoz
11'
D
Aihen Muñoz
11'
D
11
Gonçalo Guedes
52'
F
Gonçalo Guedes
52'
F
10
Mikel Oyarzabal
F
Mikel Oyarzabal
F
15
Pablo Marín
25'
M
Pablo Marín
25'
M
14
T. Kubo
1 👟
43'
F
T. Kubo
1 👟
43'
F
1
Sivera
1 ⚽
G
Sivera
1 ⚽
G
21
A. Rebbach
D
A. Rebbach
D
24
Víctor Parada
D
Víctor Parada
D
14
N. Tenaglia
D
N. Tenaglia
D
17
Jonny
D
Jonny
D
7
Ángel Pérez
86'
D
18
Jon Guridi
66'
M
Jon Guridi
66'
M
8
Antonio Blanco
M
Antonio Blanco
M
19
Pablo Ibáñez
66'
M
Pablo Ibáñez
66'
M
22
I. Diabate
1 ⚽
60'
F
I. Diabate
1 ⚽
60'
F
11
Toni Martínez
F
Toni Martínez
F
Bench
10
Carles Aleñá
31'
M
Carles Aleñá
31'
M
4
Denis Suárez
1 👟
11'
M
Denis Suárez
1 👟
11'
M
15
L. Boyé
1 ⚽
37'
F
L. Boyé
1 ⚽
37'
F
3
Yusi
D
Yusi
D
Best on the pitch
T. Kubo
F · Real
8.00
1 👟
· 13 pass
L. Sučić
M · Real
8.00
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 39 pass
O. Óskarsson
F · Real
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 14 pass
I. Diabate
F · Alaves
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 8 pass
Barrenetxea
M · Real
7.20
1 👟
· 19 pass
L. Boyé
F · Alaves
6.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 4 pass
Real Sociedad — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 97 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 47 | 37% | — | — | — | |
| Sergio Gómez | D | 93 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 42 | 40% | 3 | — | 1 |
| D. Ćaleta-Car | D | 97 | 5.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 55 | 47% | — | — | — |
| Elustondo | D | 86 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 50 | 41% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Aramburu | D | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 41 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| Carlos Soler | M | 97 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 66 | 55% | — | — | — |
| Beñat Turrientes | M | 97 | 6.50 | — | — | 2 | 66 | 56% | 2 | — | — |
| Barrenetxea | M | 45 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 19 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| Brais Méndez | M | 54 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| L. Sučić | M | 86 | 8.00 | 1 | — | 2 | 39 | 30% | 3 | — | — |
| O. Óskarsson | F | 72 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Aihen Muñoz | D | 11 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Gonçalo Guedes | F | 52 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Pablo Marín | M | 25 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| T. Kubo | F | 43 | 8.00 | — | 1 | — | 13 | 11% | — | 1 | — |
Alaves — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sivera | G | 97 | 6.30 | 1 | — | — | 31 | 11% | — | — | — |
| A. Rebbach | D | 97 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 31 | 25% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Víctor Parada | D | 97 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 24% | — | — | — |
| N. Tenaglia | D | 97 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 47 | 41% | 3 | — | — |
| Jonny | D | 97 | 6.00 | — | — | — | 55 | 51% | — | — | — |
| Ángel Pérez | D | 86 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 38 | 27% | 4 | 1 | — |
| Jon Guridi | M | 66 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 21 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Antonio Blanco | M | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 55 | 50% | 2 | — | — |
| Pablo Ibáñez | M | 66 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | — | — | — |
| I. Diabate | F | 60 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Toni Martínez | F | 97 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Carles Aleñá | M | 31 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 18 | 16% | — | — | — |
| Denis Suárez | M | 11 | 6.60 | — | 1 | — | 8 | 7% | — | — | — |
| L. Boyé | F | 37 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Real Sociedad vs Alaves?
The final score was Real Sociedad 3–3 Alaves.
What did the model predict before Real Sociedad vs Alaves?
The model assigned 60% probability to a Real Sociedad win, 20% to a draw, and 19% to an Alaves win.