Bundesliga
· Championship Group - 30
May 03, 2026 17:00
Y. Vertessen
22'
90'+3
(ast. O. Kiteishvili)
A. Kayombo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Red Bull Salzburg a 40% win probability (draw 23%, Sturm Graz 36%). The final result was Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 Sturm Graz. In 3 previous meetings, Red Bull Salzburg have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 1 wins for Sturm Graz.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
11
8
Shots on target
3
1.75
Actual xG
1.31
2
Saves
7
45%
Possession
55%
4
Corners
9
14
Tackles
19
0
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
5'
G. Mamageishvili
⚽Y. Vertessen
22'
59'
P. Koller
/
J. Mitchell
73'
L. Weinhandl
/
R. Fosso
73'
O. Kiteishvili
/
G. Mamageishvili
73'
N. Geyrhofer
/
E. Karic
Y. Vertessen
/ E. Baidoo
74'
K. Alajbegovic
/ M. K. Yeo
80'
K. Onisiwo
/ K. Konate
80'
S. Kitano
/ A. Terzic
87'
88'
A. Kayombo
/
M. Malone
90'+3
ast. O. Kiteishvili ·
A. Kayombo⚽
90'+7
90'+9
J. Gazibegovic
Pre-match prediction
40.56%
Red
23.08%
X ←
36.37%
Sturm
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
23.08%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.83
1.75
-0.08
1.86
1.31
-0.55
Red Bull Salzburg dominated by xG (1.75 vs 1.31).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
1
G
13
F. Krätzig
D
F. Krätzig
D
21
Tim Drexler
D
Tim Drexler
D
44
Jannik Schuster
D
Jannik Schuster
D
22
Stefan Lainer
D
Stefan Lainer
D
5
S. Diabaté
M
S. Diabaté
M
27
Kerim-Sam Alajbegović
80'
M
Kerim-Sam Alajbegović
80'
M
14
M. Kjærgaard
M
M. Kjærgaard
M
8
S. Kitano
87'
M
S. Kitano
87'
M
11
Y. Vertessen
1 ⚽
74'
M
Y. Vertessen
1 ⚽
74'
M
9
Karim Onisiwo
80'
F
Karim Onisiwo
80'
F
Bench
3
Aleksa Terzić
8'
D
Aleksa Terzić
8'
D
24
Damir Redzic
F
Damir Redzic
F
20
Edmund Baidoo
21'
F
Edmund Baidoo
21'
F
19
K. Konaté
15'
F
K. Konaté
15'
F
49
Moussa Kounfolo Yeo
15'
M
Moussa Kounfolo Yeo
15'
M
53
Daniil Khudyakov
G
Daniil Khudyakov
G
17
Emir Karić
73'
D
Emir Karić
73'
D
5
Albert Vallci
D
Albert Vallci
D
2
Jeyland Mitchell
59'
D
Jeyland Mitchell
59'
D
22
Jusuf Gazibegović
D
Jusuf Gazibegović
D
4
J. Gorenc Stankovič
M
J. Gorenc Stankovič
M
80
Ryan Fosso
73'
M
Ryan Fosso
73'
M
15
Gizo Mamageishvili
73'
M
Gizo Mamageishvili
73'
M
43
Jacob Hödl
M
Jacob Hödl
M
77
Maurice Malone
88'
F
Maurice Malone
88'
F
20
Seedy Jatta
F
Seedy Jatta
F
Bench
11
Axel Kayombo
1 ⚽
7'
F
Axel Kayombo
1 ⚽
7'
F
39
Luca Weinhandl
22'
M
Luca Weinhandl
22'
M
10
O. Kiteishvili
1 👟
22'
M
O. Kiteishvili
1 👟
22'
M
30
Paul Koller
36'
D
Paul Koller
36'
D
Best on the pitch
Daniil Khudyakov
G · Sturm
8.90
· 25 pass
Jannik Schuster
D · Red
7.30
· 38 pass
S. Diabaté
M · Red
7.30
1 shots
· 30 pass
M. Kjærgaard
M · Red
7.30
1 shots
· 24 pass
Axel Kayombo
F · Sturm
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
Y. Vertessen
M · Red
7.30
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 21 pass
Red Bull Salzburg — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 12% | — | — | — | |
| F. Krätzig | D | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 28% | 3 | — | — |
| Tim Drexler | D | 95 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Jannik Schuster | D | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 38 | 30% | 1 | — | — |
| Stefan Lainer | D | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 31 | 22% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Diabaté | M | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 25% | 3 | — | — |
| Kerim-Sam Alajbegović | M | 80 | 7.20 | — | — | 2 | 16 | 12% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Kjærgaard | M | 95 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 24 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| S. Kitano | M | 87 | 6.50 | — | — | 5 | 22 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Vertessen | M | 74 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 2 | 21 | 14% | 1 | — | — |
| Karim Onisiwo | F | 80 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 10 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Aleksa Terzić | D | 8 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 5 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Edmund Baidoo | F | 21 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| K. Konaté | F | 15 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 4 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Moussa Kounfolo Yeo | M | 15 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 4 | 1% | — | — | — |
Sturm Graz — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniil Khudyakov | G | 95 | 8.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 18% | — | — | — |
| Emir Karić | D | 73 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 20% | 4 | — | — |
| Albert Vallci | D | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 49 | 38% | 1 | — | — |
| Jeyland Mitchell | D | 59 | 7.20 | — | — | 1 | 22 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Jusuf Gazibegović | D | 95 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 25 | 19% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Gorenc Stankovič | M | 95 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 46 | 35% | 2 | — | — |
| Ryan Fosso | M | 73 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 32 | 23% | 2 | — | — |
| Gizo Mamageishvili | M | 73 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 12 | 6% | — | 1 | — |
| Jacob Hödl | M | 95 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 17 | 10% | 3 | — | — |
| Maurice Malone | F | 88 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 14 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Seedy Jatta | F | 95 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Axel Kayombo | F | 7 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luca Weinhandl | M | 22 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 9 | 6% | 1 | — | — |
| O. Kiteishvili | M | 22 | 6.90 | — | 1 | — | 12 | 12% | — | — | — |
| Paul Koller | D | 36 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 18% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
The final score was Red Bull Salzburg 1–1 Sturm Graz.
What did the model predict before Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz?
The model assigned 40% probability to a Red Bull Salzburg win, 23% to a draw, and 36% to an Sturm Graz win.