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Model wrong — prediction Monza, result Draw
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Monza a 74% win probability (draw 13%, Reggiana 12%). The final result was Reggiana 0–0 Monza. In 1 previous meetings, Reggiana have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 1 wins for Monza.

Match statistics
0
Shots on target
6
0.50
Actual xG
1.19
32%
Possession
68%
3
Corners
4
Pre-match prediction
12.28%
Reggiana
13.51%
X ←
74.22%
Monza
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 13.51% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Reggiana
0.40
0.50
+0.1
Monza
2.56
1.19
-1.37
Monza dominated by xG (1.19 vs 0.50). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 Palermo Palermo 3 9
2 Sudtirol Sudtirol 4 8
3 Mantova Mantova 3 7
4 Modena Modena 4 7
5 Ascoli Ascoli 4 7
6 Padova Padova 4 7
7 Arezzo Arezzo 4 6
8 Cesena Cesena 4 6
9 Pisa Pisa 4 6
10 Avellino Avellino 3 6
11 Empoli Empoli 4 6
12 Vicenza Virtus Vicenza Virtus 4 5
13 Benevento Benevento 4 4
14 Virtus Entella Virtus Entella 4 4
15 Cremonese Cremonese 4 4
16 Hellas Verona Hellas Verona 4 4
17 Catanzaro Catanzaro 4 3
18 Juve Stabia Juve Stabia 4 2
19 Sampdoria Sampdoria 3 1
20 Carrarese Carrarese 4 1
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Reggiana vs Monza?
The final score was Reggiana 0–0 Monza.
What did the model predict before Reggiana vs Monza?
The model assigned 12% probability to a Reggiana win, 13% to a draw, and 74% to an Monza win.