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← UEFA Nations League

Rep. Of Ireland - Israel

UEFA Nations League October 04, 2026 20:45 Denka Big Swan Stadium, Niigata
Rep. Of Ireland
#3 · 0 pts
vs
Israel
#1 · 0 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
59.26%
Win
Rep. Of Ireland
17.97%
Draw
22.77%
Win
Israel
2.66
Expected xG
1.62
Most likely outcome
Rep. Of Ireland
59.26%
Probability
100.0%
1X2 accuracy · 2 predictions (3 months)

Market probabilities

Most likely result 2–1 (7.98%)
1X2 Result
1 59%
X 18%
2 23%
Double Chance
1X 77%
X2 41%
12 82%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 94%
Over 2.5 84%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Rep. Of Ireland a 59% win probability, against 17% for a draw and 22% for Israel. Expected goals are 2.7 for Rep. Of Ireland and 1.6 for Israel (total 4.3), with a 93% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 2–1 at 7.98% probability.

Season Stats

Rep. Of Ireland
4W 0D 4L
Israel
1W 1D 4L
Averages per game
0.9
Goals
0.8
1.8
Conceded
2.2
3.3
Shots OT
2.0
3.1
Corners
1.8
41%
Poss.
34%
Percentages
88%
O 1.5
67%
50%
O 2.5
67%
38%
BTTS
67%
13%
Clean Sht
33%
ℹ Based on the last 8 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
34%
O 3.5
46%
BTTS
Rep. Of Ireland
2W 0D 2L · at home
Israel
0W 1D 2L · away
0.8
gls/g
0.7
1.2
Conceded
2.3
50%
Win %
0%
50%
Win or Draw
33%
75%
O 1.5
67%
25%
O 2.5
67%
0%
O 3.5
67%
25%
BTTS
67%
25%
Clean Sht
33%
50%
Failed to Score
33%
last 4
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Rep. Of Ireland Israel →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 1.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
1 3.7% 6.0% 4.8% 2.6% 1.1% 0.3%
2 4.9% 7.9% 6.4% 3.5% 1.4% 0.5%
3 4.3% 7.0% 5.7% 3.1% 1.3% 0.4%
4 2.9% 4.7% 3.8% 2.0% 0.8% 0.3%
5 1.5% 2.5% 2.0% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1%

Recent form

Rep. Of Ireland Rep. Of Ireland
W Bulgaria 2–1
W Bulgaria 1–2
L England 5–0
W Finland 1–0
L Greece 2–0
Israel Israel
W Belgium 1–0
D France 0–0
L Italy 4–1
L France 1–4
L Italy 1–2

Playing profile

Rep. Of Ireland Rep. Of Ireland
Attack
40
Defence
84
Form
46
Israel Israel
Attack
43
Defence
72
Form
58
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 3

# Team G Pts
1 Israel Israel 0 0
2 Austria Austria 0 0
3 Rep. Of Ireland Rep. Of Ireland 0 0
4 Kosovo Kosovo 0 0

What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League B, Group 3

Top 2 advance to the next round

Rep. Of Ireland Israel
Current #3 #1
→ Rep. Of Ireland #1 #2
→ Draw #2 #1
→ Israel #3 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel?
The model gives Rep. Of Ireland a 59% win probability, 17% for a draw, and 22% for an Israel win.
How many goals are expected in Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel?
Expected goals: Rep. Of Ireland 2.7, Israel 1.6 (total 4.3). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 93%.
What is the most likely score in Rep. Of Ireland vs Israel?
2–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 7.98%.