Conference League
· League Stage - 1
October 15, 2026 18:45
S. Oulad M'Hand
(ast. M. Tonisevs)
12'
(pen.)
5'
M. Gual
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Riga a 42% win probability (draw 33%, Kairat Almaty 24%). The final result was Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty.
Match statistics
14
Total shots
8
8
Shots on target
3
2.30
Actual xG
1.12
2
Saves
7
63%
Possession
37%
2
Corners
3
12
Tackles
18
0
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
5'
(pen.)
M. Gual⚽
⚽S. Oulad M'Hand
· ast. M. Tonisevs
12'
23'
J. Oksanen
⚽M. Badamosi
(missed pen.)
28'
56'
E. Tapalov
M. Badamosi
/ Reginaldo Ramires
61'
73'
I. Bekbolat
/
Edmilson
79'
A. Tuyakbaev
/
A. Mrynskiy
79'
D. Kasabulat
/
G. Mendonsa
R. Aouani
/ S. L. Robalo Pedro
86'
M. Diop
/ C. Saco
86'
90'+2
A. Martynovich
Pre-match prediction
42.07%
Riga
33.61%
X ←
24.32%
Kairat
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
33.61%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.00
2.30
+1.3
0.35
1.12
+0.77
Riga dominated by xG (2.30 vs 1.12).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
12
Kenan Pirić
88'
G
Kenan Pirić
88'
G
13
R. Jurkovskis
88'
D
R. Jurkovskis
88'
D
5
K. Wassom
88'
D
K. Wassom
88'
D
21
B. Musah
88'
D
B. Musah
88'
D
23
M. Toņiševs
1 👟
88'
D
8
Iago Siqueira Augusto
88'
M
Iago Siqueira Augusto
88'
M
40
A. Ankrah
88'
M
A. Ankrah
88'
M
7
R. Aouani
86'
M
R. Aouani
86'
M
18
S. Oulad M'Hand
1 ⚽
88'
M
22
M. Diop
86'
M
M. Diop
86'
M
19
M. Badamosi
61'
F
M. Badamosi
61'
F
Bench
34
A. Černomordijs
D
A. Černomordijs
D
25
A. Taiwo
F
A. Taiwo
F
6
C. Saco
2'
M
C. Saco
2'
M
91
F. Orols
G
F. Orols
G
44
M. Kazainis
G
M. Kazainis
G
10
Reginaldo Ramires
27'
F
15
Samuel Pedro
2'
F
Samuel Pedro
2'
F
1
Temirlan Anarbekov
88'
G
Temirlan Anarbekov
88'
G
3
Luís Mata
88'
D
Luís Mata
88'
D
25
Aleksandr Shirobokov
88'
D
Aleksandr Shirobokov
88'
D
14
Aleksandr Martynovich
88'
D
Aleksandr Martynovich
88'
D
20
Erkin Tapalov
88'
D
Erkin Tapalov
88'
D
13
Jaakko Oksanen
88'
M
Jaakko Oksanen
88'
M
22
Gustavo Mendonca
79'
M
Gustavo Mendonca
79'
M
19
Oiva Jukkola
88'
M
Oiva Jukkola
88'
M
28
Marc Gual
1 ⚽
88'
M
Marc Gual
1 ⚽
88'
M
24
Aleksandr Mrynskiy
79'
M
Aleksandr Mrynskiy
79'
M
9
Edmilson
73'
F
Edmilson
73'
F
Bench
6
Adilet Sadybekov
M
Adilet Sadybekov
M
17
Azamat Tuyakbayev
9'
M
Azamat Tuyakbayev
9'
M
4
Damir Kasabulat
9'
D
Damir Kasabulat
9'
D
81
Ismail Bekbolat
15'
F
Ismail Bekbolat
15'
F
5
Lev Kurgin
D
Lev Kurgin
D
15
Mansur Birkurmanov
F
Mansur Birkurmanov
F
27
Mukhamedali Abish
M
Mukhamedali Abish
M
8
Olzhas Baibek
M
Olzhas Baibek
M
82
Sherkhan Kalmurza
G
Sherkhan Kalmurza
G
Best on the pitch
Temirlan Anarbekov
G · Kairat
8.70
· 21 pass
S. Oulad M'Hand
M · Riga
7.90
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 48 pass
K. Wassom
D · Riga
7.70
· 120 pass
Iago Siqueira Augusto
M · Riga
7.60
1 shots
· 69 pass
Kenan Pirić
G · Riga
7.30
· 14 pass
R. Aouani
M · Riga
7.30
1 shots
· 45 pass
Riga — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenan Pirić | G | 88 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 13% | — | — | — |
| R. Jurkovskis | D | 88 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 69 | 60% | — | — | — |
| K. Wassom | D | 88 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 120 | 113% | — | — | — |
| B. Musah | D | 88 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 83 | 74% | — | — | — |
| M. Toņiševs | D | 88 | 7.20 | — | 1 | — | 38 | 31% | — | — | — |
| Iago Siqueira Augusto | M | 88 | 7.60 | — | — | 1 | 69 | 59% | 5 | — | — |
| A. Ankrah | M | 88 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 60 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| R. Aouani | M | 86 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 33% | — | — | — |
| S. Oulad M'Hand | M | 88 | 7.90 | 1 | — | 3 | 48 | 40% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Diop | M | 86 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 30 | 24% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Badamosi | F | 61 | 6.30 | — | — | 2 | 4 | 4% | — | — | — |
| C. Saco | M | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — |
| Reginaldo Ramires | F | 27 | 7.00 | — | — | 2 | 5 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Samuel Pedro | F | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Kairat Almaty — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Temirlan Anarbekov | G | 88 | 8.70 | — | — | — | 21 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Luís Mata | D | 88 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 26 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Aleksandr Shirobokov | D | 88 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 43 | 35% | — | — | — |
| Aleksandr Martynovich | D | 88 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 37 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| Erkin Tapalov | D | 88 | 7.30 | — | — | 1 | 43 | 31% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Jaakko Oksanen | M | 88 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 36 | 33% | 5 | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Mendonca | M | 79 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 37 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| Oiva Jukkola | M | 88 | 7.00 | — | — | 3 | 26 | 19% | 2 | — | — |
| Marc Gual | M | 88 | 6.90 | 1 | — | 4 | 27 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Aleksandr Mrynskiy | M | 79 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | 1 | — | — |
| Edmilson | F | 73 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 13% | 1 | — | — |
| Azamat Tuyakbayev | M | 9 | 6.30 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — |
| Damir Kasabulat | D | 9 | 6.20 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ismail Bekbolat | F | 15 | 6.30 | — | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Riga vs Kairat Almaty?
The final score was Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty.
What did the model predict before Riga vs Kairat Almaty?
The model assigned 42% probability to a Riga win, 33% to a draw, and 24% to an Kairat Almaty win.