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Model wrong — prediction Rio Ave, result Draw
O. Pohlmann (ast. Diogo Bezerra) 18'
A. Ntoi 79'
32' Tomane
68' (ast. G. Neiva) Pedro Lima
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Rio Ave a 61% win probability (draw 24%, AVS 13%). The final result was Rio Ave 2–2 AVS. In 1 previous meetings, Rio Ave have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for AVS.

Match statistics
15
Total shots
10
8
Shots on target
7
2.36
Actual xG
1.57
5
Saves
7
66%
Possession
34%
4
Corners
9
15
Tackles
21
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
O. Pohlmann · ast. Diogo Bezerra
18'
32'
Tomane
Ryan Guilherme / T. Monteiro
64'
64'
Kiki / O. Perea
64'
G. Neiva / D. Rivas
Andreas Ndoj
66'
68'
ast. G. Neiva · Pedro Lima
D. Spikic / A. Papakanellos
74'
A. Ntoi
79'
Diogo Bezerra / Rafael Lobato
85'
O. Pohlmann / T. Nikitscher
85'
86'
A. Algobia / G. Mendonca
90'+1
Nene / Tomane
90'+1
D. Duarte / T. Akinsola
90'+3
Paulo Vitor
90'
Tomane
Pre-match prediction
61.25%
Rio
24.8%
X ←
13.94%
AVS
✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 24.8% (low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
Rio
1.54
2.36
+0.82
AVS
0.44
1.57
+1.13
Rio Ave dominated by xG (2.36 vs 1.57). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
League Table
#Team GPts
1 FC Porto FC Porto 5 15
2 Benfica Benfica 5 13
3 Sporting CP Sporting CP 5 13
4 Santa Clara Santa Clara 5 11
5 Arouca Arouca 5 10
6 Estrela Estrela 5 9
7 GIL Vicente GIL Vicente 4 7
8 SC Braga SC Braga 4 7
9 Maritimo Maritimo 5 7
10 Academico Viseu Academico Viseu 5 5
11 Alverca Alverca 6 5
12 Vitória SC Vitória SC 5 4
13 Nacional Nacional 6 4
14 Moreirense Moreirense 5 4
15 Famalicao Famalicao 5 3
16 Rio Ave Rio Ave 5 3
17 Estoril Estoril 5 2
18 Casa Pia Casa Pia 5 1
Lineups
Rio Ave Rio Ave 4-2-3-1
1
G 7.70
6 Nelson Abbey Nelson Abbey D 6.50
39 Gustavo Mancha Gustavo Mancha D 6.90
32 Jakub Brabec Jakub Brabec D 6.50
17 M. Vrousai M. Vrousai D 7.20
8 Ryan Guilherme Ryan Guilherme 64' M 6.90
5 A. Ntoi A. Ntoi 1 ⚽ M 7.30
18 D. Špikić D. Špikić 74' M 6.00
80 Ole Pohlmann Ole Pohlmann 1 ⚽ 85' M 7.30
7 Diogo Bezerra Diogo Bezerra 1 👟 85' M 7.50
11 J. Blesa J. Blesa F 7.20
Bench
9 Tamble Monteiro Tamble Monteiro 32' F 6.70
44 T. Nikitscher T. Nikitscher 11' M 6.30
AVS AVS 4-3-3
1
Adriel G 7.20
12
L. Rivas 64' D 6.60
3 Paulo Vitor Paulo Vitor D 5.90
42 C. Devenish C. Devenish D 6.50
97
D 6.20
8 Pedro Lima Pedro Lima 1 ⚽ M 7.60
70
M 6.70
23
Gustavo Mendonca 86' M 6.50
14 Ó. Perea Ó. Perea 64' F 7.50
7
Tómané 1 ⚽ F 7.70
11 B. Akinsola B. Akinsola F 7.30
Bench
26
Carlos Ponck D
20 D. Duarte D. Duarte 5' F
21
Guilherme Neiva 1 👟 32' F 6.90
19 T. Galletto T. Galletto M
Best on the pitch
G · Rio
7.70
· 33 pass
Tómané
F · AVS
7.70
1 ⚽
1 shots · 25 pass
Pedro Lima
Pedro Lima
M · AVS
7.60
1 ⚽
3 shots · 22 pass
Ó. Perea
Ó. Perea
F · AVS
7.50
1 shots · 14 pass
Diogo Bezerra
Diogo Bezerra
M · Rio
7.50
1 👟
3 shots · 22 pass
B. Akinsola
B. Akinsola
F · AVS
7.30
4 shots · 11 pass
Rio Ave Rio Ave — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
G 96 7.70 33 30%
Nelson Abbey D 96 6.50 43 34% 1
Gustavo Mancha D 96 6.90 77 72% 1
Jakub Brabec D 96 6.50 66 63% 1
M. Vrousai D 96 7.20 1 61 47% 4
Ryan Guilherme M 64 6.90 37 35% 1
A. Ntoi M 96 7.30 1 3 62 56% 2 1
D. Špikić M 74 6.00 2 31 24%
Ole Pohlmann M 85 7.30 1 2 20 16% 1
Diogo Bezerra M 85 7.50 1 3 22 16% 1
J. Blesa F 96 7.20 3 15 12% 2
Tamble Monteiro F 32 6.70 1 5 3%
T. Nikitscher M 11 6.30 2 1% 1
AVS AVS — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating 👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Adriel G 96 7.20 29 17%
L. Rivas D 64 6.60 9 5% 3
Paulo Vitor D 96 5.90 25 19% 1 1
C. Devenish D 96 6.50 22 18% 2
D 96 6.20 14 4% 4
Pedro Lima M 96 7.60 1 3 22 17% 3
M 96 6.70 27 21% 2
Gustavo Mendonca M 86 6.50 20 16% 3
Ó. Perea F 64 7.50 1 14 11% 1
Tómané F 91 7.70 1 1 25 17% 1
B. Akinsola F 91 7.30 4 11 9% 1
D. Duarte F 5 1
Guilherme Neiva F 32 6.90 1 10 7% 1
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Rio Ave vs AVS?
The final score was Rio Ave 2–2 AVS.
What did the model predict before Rio Ave vs AVS?
The model assigned 61% probability to a Rio Ave win, 24% to a draw, and 13% to an AVS win.