Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 2
April 16, 2026 02:30
S. Driussi
(ast. K. Paez)
66'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave River Plate a 49% win probability (draw 27%, Carabobo FC 22%). The final result was River Plate 1–0 Carabobo FC. In 1 previous meetings, River Plate have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Carabobo FC.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
2
4
Shots on target
1
1.81
Actual xG
0.16
1
Saves
3
64%
Possession
36%
3
Corners
3
33
Tackles
17
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
G. Pezzella
5'
Fausto Vera
/ A. Moreno
18'
34'
M. Nunez
M. Vina
40'
K. Castano
/ S. Driussi
46'
I. Subiabre
/ T. Galvan
46'
J. Quintero
/ K. Paez
51'
⚽S. Driussi
· ast. K. Paez
66'
72'
L. Martinez
/
E. Ramirez
72'
E. Tortolero
/
J. Berios
72'
Y. Orozco
/
M. Cova
M. Vina
/ M. Acuna
76'
88'
D. Meza
/
E. Castillo
90'+5
J. Bilbao
Pre-match prediction
49.96%
River ←
27.91%
X
22.12%
Carabobo
we assigned to the actual result (River Plate)
49.96%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.49
1.81
+0.32
0.89
0.16
-0.73
River Plate dominated by xG (1.81 vs 0.16).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
41
S. Beltrán
G
S. Beltrán
G
18
M. Viña
76'
D
M. Viña
76'
D
13
Lautaro Rivero
D
Lautaro Rivero
D
20
Germán Pezzella
D
Germán Pezzella
D
16
Fabricio Bustos
D
Fabricio Bustos
D
15
Fausto Vera
18'
M
Fausto Vera
18'
M
22
Kevin Castaño
45'
M
Kevin Castaño
45'
M
38
Ian Subiabre
45'
M
Ian Subiabre
45'
M
10
J. Quintero
51'
M
J. Quintero
51'
M
24
Juan Cruz Meza
M
Juan Cruz Meza
M
35
Joaquín Freitas
F
Joaquín Freitas
F
Bench
6
Aníbal Moreno
72'
M
Aníbal Moreno
72'
M
33
Ezequiel Centurión
G
Ezequiel Centurión
G
11
Facundo Colidio
F
Facundo Colidio
F
31
Facundo González
D
Facundo González
D
29
Gonzalo Montiel
D
Gonzalo Montiel
D
19
Kendry Páez
1 👟
39'
M
Kendry Páez
1 👟
39'
M
21
Marcos Acuña
14'
D
Marcos Acuña
14'
D
9
S. Driussi
1 ⚽
45'
F
S. Driussi
1 ⚽
45'
F
26
Tomás Galván
45'
M
Tomás Galván
45'
M
2
T. Ramirez
D
22
Lucas Bruera
G
Lucas Bruera
G
8
Juan Camilo Pérez
D
Juan Camilo Pérez
D
3
Jean Fuentes
D
Jean Fuentes
D
32
Ezequiel Neira
D
Ezequiel Neira
D
28
Jonathan Bilbao
D
Jonathan Bilbao
D
21
A. González
D
A. González
D
15
Maurice Cova
72'
M
Maurice Cova
72'
M
26
Matías Núñez
M
Matías Núñez
M
5
E. Castillo
88'
M
E. Castillo
88'
M
24
E. Ramírez
72'
F
E. Ramírez
72'
F
14
72'
F
Bench
7
Edson Tortolero
18'
M
16
Franner López
M
Franner López
M
17
Franyer Oliveros
D
Franyer Oliveros
D
19
Loureins Martínez
18'
F
Loureins Martínez
18'
F
2
Marcel Guaramato
D
Marcel Guaramato
D
30
Sebastián Mendoza
M
Sebastián Mendoza
M
10
Yohandry Orozco
18'
M
Yohandry Orozco
18'
M
Best on the pitch
J. Quintero
M · River
7.70
1 shots
· 35 pass
Kendry Páez
M · River
7.60
1 👟
2 shots
· 26 pass
Aníbal Moreno
M · River
7.50
· 61 pass
Lautaro Rivero
D · River
7.50
· 64 pass
S. Driussi
F · River
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 14 pass
Kevin Castaño
M · River
7.30
· 44 pass
River Plate — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Beltrán | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 21 | 14% | — | — | — |
| M. Viña | D | 76 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 49 | 40% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Lautaro Rivero | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 64 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| Germán Pezzella | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 50 | 40% | 3 | 1 | — |
| Fabricio Bustos | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 58 | 47% | 4 | — | — |
| Fausto Vera | M | 18 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 18 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Kevin Castaño | M | 45 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 44 | 38% | 3 | — | — |
| Ian Subiabre | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Quintero | M | 51 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Cruz Meza | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 39% | 3 | — | — |
| Joaquín Freitas | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Aníbal Moreno | M | 72 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 61 | 52% | 3 | — | — |
| Kendry Páez | M | 39 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 2 | 26 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Marcos Acuña | D | 14 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Driussi | F | 45 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| Tomás Galván | M | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 16 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
Carabobo FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Bruera | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 11% | — | — | — |
| Juan Camilo Pérez | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 9% | 3 | — | — |
| Jean Fuentes | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Ezequiel Neira | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 19 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Bilbao | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 20% | 2 | 1 | — |
| A. González | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 36 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| Maurice Cova | M | 72 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 31 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Matías Núñez | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 37 | 29% | 4 | 1 | — |
| E. Castillo | M | 88 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| E. Ramírez | F | 72 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| F | 72 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | — | — | — | |
| Edson Tortolero | M | 18 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Loureins Martínez | F | 18 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Yohandry Orozco | M | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of River Plate vs Carabobo FC?
The final score was River Plate 1–0 Carabobo FC.
What did the model predict before River Plate vs Carabobo FC?
The model assigned 49% probability to a River Plate win, 27% to a draw, and 22% to an Carabobo FC win.