Copa Sudamericana
· Group Stage - 2
April 16, 2026 02:30
S. Driussi
(ast. K. Paez)
66'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave River Plate a 49% win probability (draw 27%, Carabobo FC 22%). The final result was River Plate 1–0 Carabobo FC. In 1 previous meetings, River Plate have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Carabobo FC.
Match statistics
9
Total shots
2
4
Shots on target
1
1.81
Actual xG
0.16
1
Saves
3
64%
Possession
36%
3
Corners
3
33
Tackles
17
2
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
G. Pezzella
5'
Fausto Vera
/ A. Moreno
18'
34'
M. Nunez
M. Vina
40'
K. Castano
/ S. Driussi
46'
I. Subiabre
/ T. Galvan
46'
J. Quintero
/ K. Paez
51'
⚽S. Driussi
· ast. K. Paez
66'
72'
L. Martinez
/
E. Ramirez
72'
E. Tortolero
/
J. Berios
72'
Y. Orozco
/
M. Cova
M. Vina
/ M. Acuna
76'
88'
D. Meza
/
E. Castillo
90'+5
J. Bilbao
Pre-match prediction
49.96%
River ←
27.91%
X
22.12%
Carabobo
we assigned to the actual result (River Plate)
49.96%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.49
1.81
+0.32
0.89
0.16
-0.73
River Plate dominated by xG (1.81 vs 0.16).
The final result reflects the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
41
Santiago Beltrán
G
Santiago Beltrán
G
18
M. Viña
76'
D
M. Viña
76'
D
13
Lautaro Rivero
D
Lautaro Rivero
D
20
Germán Pezzella
D
16
F. Bustos
D
F. Bustos
D
15
F. Vera
18'
M
F. Vera
18'
M
22
Kevin Castaño
45'
M
Kevin Castaño
45'
M
38
Ian Martin Subiabre
45'
M
Ian Martin Subiabre
45'
M
10
J. Quintero
51'
M
J. Quintero
51'
M
24
Juan Cruz Meza
M
Juan Cruz Meza
M
35
J. Freitas
F
J. Freitas
F
Bench
6
Aníbal Moreno
72'
M
Aníbal Moreno
72'
M
33
Ezequiel Centurión
G
Ezequiel Centurión
G
31
Facundo González
D
Facundo González
D
11
F. Colidio
F
F. Colidio
F
29
Gonzalo Montiel
D
Gonzalo Montiel
D
19
Kendry Páez
1 👟
39'
M
Kendry Páez
1 👟
39'
M
21
M. Acuña
14'
D
M. Acuña
14'
D
9
Sebastián Driussi
1 ⚽
45'
F
Sebastián Driussi
1 ⚽
45'
F
26
T. Galván
45'
M
T. Galván
45'
M
2
Tobías Ramírez
D
Tobías Ramírez
D
22
Lucas Bruera
G
8
J. Pérez
D
3
J. Fuentes
D
32
E. Neira
D
28
J. Bilbao
D
21
A. González
D
A. González
D
15
M. Cova
72'
M
26
M. Núñez
M
5
E. Castillo
88'
M
E. Castillo
88'
M
24
E. Ramírez
72'
F
E. Ramírez
72'
F
14
72'
F
Bench
7
Edson Tortolero
18'
M
Edson Tortolero
18'
M
16
F. López
M
17
F. Oliveros
D
19
Loureins Martínez
18'
F
Loureins Martínez
18'
F
2
M. Guaramato
D
30
Sebastián Mendoza
M
Sebastián Mendoza
M
10
Y. Orozco
18'
M
Best on the pitch
J. Quintero
M · River
7.70
1 shots
· 35 pass
Kendry Páez
M · River
7.60
1 👟
2 shots
· 26 pass
Aníbal Moreno
M · River
7.50
· 61 pass
Lautaro Rivero
D · River
7.50
· 64 pass
Sebastián Driussi
F · River
7.30
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 14 pass
Kevin Castaño
M · River
7.30
· 44 pass
River Plate — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Beltrán | G | 90 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 21 | 14% | — | — | — |
| M. Viña | D | 76 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 49 | 40% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Lautaro Rivero | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 64 | 53% | 2 | — | — |
| Germán Pezzella | D | 90 | 7.20 | — | — | — | 50 | 40% | 3 | 1 | — |
| F. Bustos | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 58 | 47% | 4 | — | — |
| F. Vera | M | 18 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 18 | 17% | 2 | — | — |
| Kevin Castaño | M | 45 | 7.30 | — | — | — | 44 | 38% | 3 | — | — |
| Ian Martin Subiabre | M | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 19 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| J. Quintero | M | 51 | 7.70 | — | — | 1 | 35 | 33% | 1 | — | — |
| Juan Cruz Meza | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 42 | 39% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Freitas | F | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 25 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Aníbal Moreno | M | 72 | 7.50 | — | — | — | 61 | 52% | 3 | — | — |
| Kendry Páez | M | 39 | 7.60 | — | 1 | 2 | 26 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Acuña | D | 14 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 12% | 1 | — | — |
| Sebastián Driussi | F | 45 | 7.30 | 1 | — | 1 | 14 | 11% | 2 | — | — |
| T. Galván | M | 45 | 7.20 | — | — | 3 | 16 | 16% | 3 | — | — |
Carabobo FC — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Bruera | G | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 19 | 11% | — | — | — |
| J. Pérez | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 9% | 3 | — | — |
| J. Fuentes | D | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 28 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Neira | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 19 | 15% | — | — | — |
| J. Bilbao | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 36 | 20% | 2 | 1 | — |
| A. González | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 36 | 22% | 3 | — | — |
| M. Cova | M | 72 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 31 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| M. Núñez | M | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 37 | 29% | 4 | 1 | — |
| E. Castillo | M | 88 | 5.60 | — | — | — | 21 | 15% | — | — | — |
| E. Ramírez | F | 72 | 5.90 | — | — | — | 15 | 11% | — | — | — |
| F | 72 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 12 | 10% | — | — | — | |
| Edson Tortolero | M | 18 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 14 | 9% | — | — | — |
| Loureins Martínez | F | 18 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Y. Orozco | M | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 14 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of River Plate vs Carabobo FC?
The final score was River Plate 1–0 Carabobo FC.
What did the model predict before River Plate vs Carabobo FC?
The model assigned 49% probability to a River Plate win, 27% to a draw, and 22% to an Carabobo FC win.