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Liga Profesional · Apertura - Semi-finals May 17, 2026 00:30 Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires
River Plate
#2 · 29 pts
1 – 0
Final score
Rosario Central
#4 · 28 pts
✓Model correct — prediction River Plate
F. Colidio 61' (pen.)
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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave River Plate a 56% win probability (draw 23%, Rosario Central 20%). The final result was River Plate 1–0 Rosario Central. In 1 previous meetings, River Plate have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Rosario Central.

Match statistics
11
Total shots
4
3
Shots on target
1
2.26
Actual xG
0.27
1
Saves
2
55%
Possession
45%
6
Corners
1
17
Tackles
14
2
🟨 Yellow cards
7
Match Events
8'
F. Ibarra
↕ S. Driussi / J. Freitas
13'
25'
I. Ovando
29'
G. Avila
⚽G. Montiel (missed pen.)
29'
↕ G. Montiel / F. Bustos
46'
↕ A. Moreno / L. Silva
56'
Fausto Vera
58'
60'
C. Ledesma
⚽F. Colidio (pen.)
61'
71'
J. Campaz / P. Fernandez ↕
71'
J. Fernandez / E. Gimenez ↕
71'
F. Mallo Blanco / I. Ovando ↕
F. Colidio
80'
80'
A. Veliz / G. Avila ↕
↕ M. Vina / M. Acuna
82'
↕ F. Colidio / G. Pezzella
83'
84'
E. Copetti
89'
A. Veliz
90'+3
C. Quintana / V. Pizarro ↕
90'+6
J. Fernandez
Pre-match prediction
56.3%
River ←
23.42%
X
20.29%
Rosario
✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (River Plate) 56.3% (medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
River
1.80
2.26
+0.46
Rosario
0.89
0.27
-0.62
River Plate dominated by xG (2.26 vs 0.27). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
River Plate River Plate 4-3-1-2
41 S. Beltrán S. Beltrán G 7.20
18 M. Viña M. Viña 83' D 7.20
13 Lautaro Rivero Lautaro Rivero D 7.20
28 L. Martínez L. Martínez D 7.70
29 Gonzalo Montiel Gonzalo Montiel 45' D 6.20
26 Tomás Galván Tomás Galván M 6.90
15 Fausto Vera Fausto Vera M 6.60
6 Aníbal Moreno Aníbal Moreno 56' M 7.00
24 Juan Cruz Meza Juan Cruz Meza M 7.20
11 Facundo Colidio Facundo Colidio 1 ⚽ 83' F 6.60
9 S. Driussi S. Driussi 13' F 6.50
Bench
16 Fabricio Bustos Fabricio Bustos 45' D 6.90
1 Franco Armani Franco Armani G
20 Germán Pezzella Germán Pezzella 15' D 6.90
34 Giuliano Galoppo Giuliano Galoppo M
38 Ian Subiabre Ian Subiabre F
35 Joaquín Freitas Joaquín Freitas 77' F 6.30
10 J. Quintero J. Quintero M
44 Lucas Silva Lucas Silva 34' M 6.60
21 Marcos Acuña Marcos Acuña 15' D 6.90
8 Maxi Meza Maxi Meza M
7 Maximiliano Salas Maximiliano Salas F
39 Santiago Lencina Santiago Lencina M
Rosario Central Rosario Central 4-2-3-1
23 Jeremías Ledesma Jeremías Ledesma G 6.60
3 Agustín Sández Agustín Sández D 6.20
13 Gastón Ávila Gastón Ávila 80' D 6.50
46 Ignacio Ovando Ignacio Ovando 71' D 6.20
32 Emanuel Coronel Emanuel Coronel D 6.60
20 Vicente Pizarro Vicente Pizarro 89' M 6.50
5 Franco Ibarra Franco Ibarra M 6.60
28 Pol Fernández Pol Fernández 71' M 6.50
11 Ángel Di María Ángel Di María M 7.20
16 E. Giménez E. Giménez 71' M 6.50
22 Enzo Copetti Enzo Copetti F 6.30
Bench
9 Alejo Véliz Alejo Véliz 10' F 6.30
33 Alexis Soto Alexis Soto D
2 Carlos Quintana Carlos Quintana 1' D
42 Elías Verón Elías Verón D
15 Facundo Mallo Facundo Mallo 19' D 6.90
31 Federico Navarro Federico Navarro M
26 Giovanni Cantizano Giovanni Cantizano F
8 Jaminton Campaz Jaminton Campaz 19' M 6.20
1 Jorge Broun Jorge Broun G
18 Julián Fernández Julián Fernández 19' F 6.50
47 Luca Raffin Luca Raffin D
29 Marco Rubén Marco Rubén F
Best on the pitch
L. Martínez
L. Martínez
D · River
7.70
· 36 pass
S. Beltrán
S. Beltrán
G · River
7.20
· 12 pass
M. Viña
M. Viña
D · River
7.20
· 27 pass
Lautaro Rivero
Lautaro Rivero
D · River
7.20
· 38 pass
Juan Cruz Meza
Juan Cruz Meza
M · River
7.20
· 33 pass
Ángel Di María
Ángel Di María
M · Rosario
7.20
1 shots · 34 pass
River Plate River Plate — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
S. Beltrán G 90 7.20 — — — 12 5% — — —
M. Viña D 83 7.20 — — — 27 20% 2 — —
Lautaro Rivero D 90 7.20 — — — 38 33% 2 — —
L. Martínez D 90 7.70 — — — 36 31% — — —
Gonzalo Montiel D 45 6.20 — — 1 33 25% 1 — —
Tomás Galván M 90 6.90 — — — 28 22% — — —
Fausto Vera M 90 6.60 — — 1 61 47% 4 1 —
Aníbal Moreno M 56 7.00 — — 2 32 27% 5 — —
Juan Cruz Meza M 90 7.20 — — — 33 26% 1 — —
Facundo Colidio F 83 6.60 1 — 4 12 4% 1 1 —
S. Driussi F 13 6.50 — — — 3 2% — — —
Fabricio Bustos D 45 6.90 — — — 24 20% — — —
Germán Pezzella D 15 6.90 — — — 3 1% — — —
Joaquín Freitas F 77 6.30 — — 2 17 13% — — —
Lucas Silva M 34 6.60 — — 1 8 8% 1 — —
Marcos Acuña D 15 6.90 — — — — — — — —
Rosario Central Rosario Central — Player statistics
Team PosMinRating ⚽👟 ShotsPassAcc% TckYCRC
Jeremías Ledesma G 90 6.60 — — — 19 10% — 1 —
Agustín Sández D 90 6.20 — — — 17 15% 3 — —
Gastón Ávila D 80 6.50 — — — 29 24% 1 1 —
Ignacio Ovando D 71 6.20 — — — 19 15% — 1 —
Emanuel Coronel D 90 6.60 — — — 45 30% 3 — —
Vicente Pizarro M 89 6.50 — — — 39 33% 1 — —
Franco Ibarra M 90 6.60 — — — 47 31% 2 1 —
Pol Fernández M 71 6.50 — — 1 15 12% — — —
Ángel Di María M 90 7.20 — — 1 34 25% — — —
E. Giménez M 71 6.50 — — — 11 9% 1 — —
Enzo Copetti F 90 6.30 — — 1 13 7% 3 1 —
Alejo Véliz F 10 6.30 — — — 2 1% — 1 —
Carlos Quintana D 1 — — — — — — — — —
Facundo Mallo D 19 6.90 — — — 10 9% — — —
Jaminton Campaz M 19 6.20 — — — 8 4% — — —
Julián Fernández F 19 6.50 — — 1 5 5% — 1 —
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of River Plate vs Rosario Central?
The final score was River Plate 1–0 Rosario Central.
What did the model predict before River Plate vs Rosario Central?
The model assigned 56% probability to a River Plate win, 23% to a draw, and 20% to an Rosario Central win.