River Plate 1–0 Rosario Central — pre-match prediction — Liga Profesional — May 17, 2026

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Liga Profesional · Apertura - Semi-finals May 17, 2026 00:30 Estadio Alberto J. Armando, Buenos Aires

River Plate

#2 · 29 pts

1 – 0

Final score

Rosario Central

#4 · 28 pts

✓Model correct — prediction River Plate

F. Colidio 61' (pen.)

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave River Plate a 56% win probability (draw 23%, Rosario Central 20%). The final result was River Plate 1–0 Rosario Central. In 2 previous meetings, River Plate have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 1 wins for Rosario Central.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

2.26

Actual xG

0.27

Saves

55%

Possession

45%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

F. Ibarra

↕ S. Driussi / J. Freitas

13'

25'

I. Ovando

29'

G. Avila

⚽G. Montiel (missed pen.)

29'

↕ G. Montiel / F. Bustos

46'

↕ A. Moreno / L. Silva

56'

Fausto Vera

58'

60'

C. Ledesma

⚽F. Colidio (pen.)

61'

71'

J. Campaz / P. Fernandez ↕

71'

J. Fernandez / E. Gimenez ↕

71'

F. Mallo Blanco / I. Ovando ↕

F. Colidio

80'

A. Veliz / G. Avila ↕

↕ M. Vina / M. Acuna

82'

↕ F. Colidio / G. Pezzella

83'

84'

E. Copetti

89'

A. Veliz

90'+3

C. Quintana / V. Pizarro ↕

90'+6

J. Fernandez

Pre-match prediction

56.3%

River ←

23.42%

20.29%

Rosario

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (River Plate) 56.3% (medium confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

River

1.80

2.26

+0.46

Rosario

0.89

0.27

-0.62

River Plate dominated by xG (2.26 vs 0.27). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

Lineups

River Plate 4-3-1-2

S. Beltrán G 7.20

M. Viña 83' D 7.20

L. Rivero D 7.20

L. Martínez D 7.70

G. Montiel 45' D 6.20

T. Galván M 6.90

F. Vera M 6.60

Aníbal Moreno 56' M 7.00

J. Meza M 7.20

F. Colidio 1 ⚽ 83' F 6.60

S. Driussi 13' F 6.50

Bench

Fabricio Bustos 45' D 6.90

F. Armani G

Germán Pezzella 15' D 6.90

Giuliano Galoppo M

Ian Martin Subiabre F

J. Freitas 77' F 6.30

J. Quintero M

L. Silva 34' M 6.60

M. Acuña 15' D 6.90

M. Meza M

M. Salas F

Santiago Lencina M

Rosario Central 4-2-3-1

J. Ledesma G 6.60

A. Sandez D 6.20

G. Ávila 80' D 6.50

Ignacio Ovando 71' D 6.20

E. Coronel D 6.60

V. Pizarro 89' M 6.50

F. Ibarra M 6.60

G. Fernández 71' M 6.50

Á. Di María M 7.20

E. Giménez 71' M 6.50

E. Copetti F 6.30

Bench

A. Soto D

A. Véliz 10' F 6.30

C. Quintana 1' D

E. Veron D

F. Mallo 19' D 6.90

F. Navarro M

G. Cantizano F

J. Broun G

J. Campaz 19' M 6.20

Julián Fernández 19' F 6.50

Luca Raffin D

M. Ruben F

Best on the pitch

L. Martínez

D · River

7.70

· 36 pass

S. Beltrán

G · River

7.20

· 12 pass

M. Viña

D · River

7.20

· 27 pass

L. Rivero

D · River

7.20

· 38 pass

J. Meza

M · River

7.20

· 33 pass

Á. Di María

M · Rosario

7.20

1 shots · 34 pass

River Plate — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
S. Beltrán	G	90	7.20	—	—	—	12	5%	—	—	—
M. Viña	D	83	7.20	—	—	—	27	20%	2	—	—
L. Rivero	D	90	7.20	—	—	—	38	33%	2	—	—
L. Martínez	D	90	7.70	—	—	—	36	31%	—	—	—
G. Montiel	D	45	6.20	—	—	1	33	25%	1	—	—
T. Galván	M	90	6.90	—	—	—	28	22%	—	—	—
F. Vera	M	90	6.60	—	—	1	61	47%	4	1	—
Aníbal Moreno	M	56	7.00	—	—	2	32	27%	5	—	—
J. Meza	M	90	7.20	—	—	—	33	26%	1	—	—
F. Colidio	F	83	6.60	1	—	4	12	4%	1	1	—
S. Driussi	F	13	6.50	—	—	—	3	2%	—	—	—
Fabricio Bustos	D	45	6.90	—	—	—	24	20%	—	—	—
Germán Pezzella	D	15	6.90	—	—	—	3	1%	—	—	—
J. Freitas	F	77	6.30	—	—	2	17	13%	—	—	—
L. Silva	M	34	6.60	—	—	1	8	8%	1	—	—
M. Acuña	D	15	6.90	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—

Rosario Central — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
J. Ledesma	G	90	6.60	—	—	—	19	10%	—	1	—
A. Sandez	D	90	6.20	—	—	—	17	15%	3	—	—
G. Ávila	D	80	6.50	—	—	—	29	24%	1	1	—
Ignacio Ovando	D	71	6.20	—	—	—	19	15%	—	1	—
E. Coronel	D	90	6.60	—	—	—	45	30%	3	—	—
V. Pizarro	M	89	6.50	—	—	—	39	33%	1	—	—
F. Ibarra	M	90	6.60	—	—	—	47	31%	2	1	—
G. Fernández	M	71	6.50	—	—	1	15	12%	—	—	—
Á. Di María	M	90	7.20	—	—	1	34	25%	—	—	—
E. Giménez	M	71	6.50	—	—	—	11	9%	1	—	—
E. Copetti	F	90	6.30	—	—	1	13	7%	3	1	—
A. Véliz	F	10	6.30	—	—	—	2	1%	—	1	—
C. Quintana	D	1	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
F. Mallo	D	19	6.90	—	—	—	10	9%	—	—	—
J. Campaz	M	19	6.20	—	—	—	8	4%	—	—	—
Julián Fernández	F	19	6.50	—	—	1	5	5%	—	1	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of River Plate vs Rosario Central?

The final score was River Plate 1–0 Rosario Central.

What did the model predict before River Plate vs Rosario Central?

The model assigned 56% probability to a River Plate win, 23% to a draw, and 20% to an Rosario Central win.