River Plate 2–2 San Lorenzo — pre-match prediction — Liga Profesional — May 11, 2026

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Liga Profesional · Apertura - Round of 16 May 11, 2026 00:00 Sabah Al Salem Stadium, Kuwait

River Plate

#2 · 29 pts

2 – 2

Final score

pens 4–3

San Lorenzo

#4 · 0 pts

✗Model wrong — prediction River Plate, result Draw

M. Acuna (ast. J. Quintero) 55'

J. Quintero (ast. A. Moreno) 120'+1

37' (ast. N. Barrios) R. Auzmendi

94' (ast. F. Gulli) F. Lopez

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave River Plate a 62% win probability (draw 20%, San Lorenzo 16%). The final result was River Plate 2–2 San Lorenzo.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.27

Actual xG

0.67

Saves

73%

Possession

27%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

🟥 Red cards

Match Events

13'

E. Herrera

31'

M. Reali

37'

ast. N. Barrios · R. Auzmendi⚽

↕ M. Meza / J. Quintero

46'

⚽M. Acuna · ast. J. Quintero

55'

59'

I. Perruzzi / J. Rattalino ↕

59'

F. Gulli / N. Barrios ↕

↕ F. Colidio / M. Salas

65'

↕ T. Galvan / I. Subiabre

66'

↕ Fausto Vera / K. Paez

77'

F. Lopez / N. Tripichio ↕

86'

D. Herazo / R. Auzmendi ↕

I. Subiabre

90'+3

A. Moreno

93'

94'

ast. F. Gulli · F. Lopez⚽

↕ M. Acuna / J. Freitas

100'

105'

G. Rodriguez / F. Gulli ↕

↕ S. Driussi / Giuliano Galoppo

105'

119'

G. Corujo / E. Herrera ↕

⚽J. Quintero · ast. A. Moreno

120'+1

Pre-match prediction

62.51%

River

20.5%

X ←

16.99%

San

✗ Wrong prediction — we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 20.5% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

River

2.05

1.27

-0.78

San

0.87

0.67

-0.2

River Plate dominated by xG (1.27 vs 0.67). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Independ. Rivadavia	16	34
2	River Plate	16	29
3	Argentinos JRS	16	29
4	Rosario Central	16	28
5	Belgrano Cordoba	16	26
6	Gimnasia L.P.	16	26
7	Huracan	16	22
8	Racing Club	16	21
9	Barracas Central	16	21
10	Tigre	16	20
11	Sarmiento Junin	16	19
12	Banfield	16	18
13	Atletico Tucuman	16	14
14	Aldosivi	16	8
15	Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto	16	5

Lineups

River Plate 4-2-3-1

S. Beltrán G 7.00

M. Acuña 1 ⚽ D 8.70

L. Rivero D 7.30

L. Martínez D 6.90

Gonzalo Montiel D 7.00

Aníbal Moreno 1 👟 M 8.20

F. Vera 77' M 7.00

F. Colidio 65' M 6.70

Tomás Galván 66' M 6.50

Maxi Meza 45' M 6.20

S. Driussi F 6.20

Bench

Ezequiel Centurión G

Fabricio Bustos D

Facundo González D

Germán Pezzella D

Giuliano Galoppo 18' M 6.30

Ian Subiabre 57' F 6.90

Joaquín Freitas 23' F 6.20

Juan Fernando Quintero 1 ⚽ 1 👟 78' M 10.00

K. Páez 46' M 7.00

Lucas Silva M

Matías Viña D

Maximiliano Salas 58' F 6.30

San Lorenzo 3-4-1-2

O. Gill G 7.90

Lautaro Montenegro D 6.20

Jhohan Romaña D 6.90

Ezequiel Herrera D 6.90

Mathias de Ritis M 6.00

Manuel Insaurralde M 7.50

Juan Rattalino 59' M 6.30

Nicolás Tripichio 77' M 6.30

Nahuel Barrios 1 👟 59' F 7.30

Rodrigo Auzmendi 1 ⚽ 86' F 7.60

Matias Reali 31' F 5.00

Bench

Agustin Ladstatter D

Alejo Cordoba D

Diego Herazo 37' F 6.20

Fabricio López 1 ⚽ 46' D 7.30

Facundo Gulli 1 👟 46' M 7.30

Gonzalo Abrego M

Gregorio Rodriguez 18' F 6.20

Guzmán Corujo 4' D

Ignacio Perruzzi 64' M 6.50

José Devecchi G

Matías Hernández F

Teo Rodríguez Pagano D

Best on the pitch

Juan Fernando Quintero

M · River

10.00

1 ⚽ 1 👟

3 shots · 84 pass

M. Acuña

D · River

8.70

1 ⚽

2 shots · 86 pass

Aníbal Moreno

M · River

8.20

1 👟

1 shots · 80 pass

O. Gill

G · San

7.90

· 47 pass

Rodrigo Auzmendi

F · San

7.60

1 ⚽

3 shots · 21 pass

Manuel Insaurralde

M · San

7.50

· 35 pass

River Plate — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
S. Beltrán	G	123	7.00	—	—	—	11	9%	—	—	—
M. Acuña	D	100	8.70	1	—	2	86	77%	2	—	—
L. Rivero	D	123	7.30	—	—	1	75	69%	1	—	—
L. Martínez	D	123	6.90	—	—	1	69	58%	1	—	—
Gonzalo Montiel	D	123	7.00	—	—	—	70	62%	5	—	—
Aníbal Moreno	M	123	8.20	—	1	1	80	69%	8	1	—
F. Vera	M	77	7.00	—	—	6	59	50%	2	—	—
F. Colidio	M	65	6.70	—	—	3	26	20%	—	—	—
Tomás Galván	M	66	6.50	—	—	1	23	20%	1	—	—
Maxi Meza	M	45	6.20	—	—	—	22	18%	—	—	—
S. Driussi	F	105	6.20	—	—	—	38	31%	2	—	—
Giuliano Galoppo	M	18	6.30	—	—	2	1	—	—	—	—
Ian Subiabre	F	57	6.90	—	—	2	33	30%	1	1	—
Joaquín Freitas	F	23	6.20	—	—	—	1	1%	—	—	—
Juan Fernando Quintero	M	78	10.00	1	1	3	84	70%	—	—	—
K. Páez	M	46	7.00	—	—	3	16	15%	—	—	—
Maximiliano Salas	F	58	6.30	—	—	2	9	7%	—	—	—

San Lorenzo — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
O. Gill	G	123	7.90	—	—	—	47	22%	1	—	—
Lautaro Montenegro	D	123	6.20	—	—	—	17	9%	1	—	—
Jhohan Romaña	D	123	6.90	—	—	—	11	9%	1	—	—
Ezequiel Herrera	D	119	6.90	—	—	—	20	11%	4	1	—
Mathias de Ritis	M	123	6.00	—	—	—	21	12%	1	—	—
Manuel Insaurralde	M	123	7.50	—	—	—	35	24%	4	—	—
Juan Rattalino	M	59	6.30	—	—	1	15	11%	3	—	—
Nicolás Tripichio	M	77	6.30	—	—	—	28	18%	2	—	—
Nahuel Barrios	F	59	7.30	—	1	—	14	9%	4	—	—
Rodrigo Auzmendi	F	86	7.60	1	—	3	21	7%	1	—	—
Matias Reali	F	31	5.00	—	—	—	4	2%	1	—	1
Diego Herazo	F	37	6.20	—	—	—	5	4%	—	—	—
Fabricio López	D	46	7.30	1	—	1	6	2%	4	—	—
Facundo Gulli	M	46	7.30	—	1	—	7	5%	—	—	—
Gregorio Rodriguez	F	18	6.20	—	—	—	2	—	—	—	—
Guzmán Corujo	D	4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Ignacio Perruzzi	M	64	6.50	—	—	—	11	7%	—	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of River Plate vs San Lorenzo?

The final score was River Plate 2–2 San Lorenzo.

What did the model predict before River Plate vs San Lorenzo?

The model assigned 62% probability to a River Plate win, 20% to a draw, and 16% to an San Lorenzo win.