Rodina Moskva 2–2 FC Orenburg — pre-match prediction — Premier League — October 19, 2026

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Premier League · Regular Season - 11 October 19, 2026 18:30 Arena Khimki, Khimki

Rodina Moskva

#15 · 9 pts

2 – 2

Final score

FC Orenburg

#6 · 16 pts

Soltmurad Bakaev (ast. Yordy Reyna) 14'

Ivan Timoshenko 90'

(pen.) 25' Jordhy Thompson

(pen.) 73' Jordhy Thompson

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave FC Orenburg a 46% win probability (draw 29%, Rodina Moskva 23%). The final result was Rodina Moskva 2–2 FC Orenburg. In 2 previous meetings, Rodina Moskva have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for FC Orenburg.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.90

Actual xG

2.31

Saves

56%

Possession

44%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

Dmitriy Rybchinskiy

⚽Soltmurad Bakaev · ast. Yordy Reyna

14'

17'

Evgeniy Bolotov

25'

(pen.) Jordhy Thompson⚽

26'

Jordhy Thompson

Soltmurad Bakaev

26'

Artem Maksimenko

50'

52'

Emil Tsenov

↕ Soltmurad Bakaev / Artur Gharibyan

60'

↕ Artem Maksimenko / Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov

60'

65'

Damian Puebla

Rodrigo Becão

67'

68'

Aleksey Tataev

69'

Renat Golybin / Damian Puebla ↕

69'

Andrey Kasadzhikov / Evgeniy Bolotov ↕

70'

Egor Nazarenko / Dmitriy Rybchinskiy ↕

Sergey Volkov

71'

73'

(pen.) Jordhy Thompson⚽

Igor Silva

75'

↕ Andrey Egorychev / Ivan Timoshenko

75'

Yordy Reyna

77'

80'

Andrey Kasadzhikov

↕ Leon Musaev / Kirill Ushatov

84'

89'

Anton Lukashov / Jordhy Thompson ↕

89'

Egor Nazarenko

90'+4

Danila Vedernikov / Gedeon Guzina ↕

⚽Ivan Timoshenko

90'

Pre-match prediction

23.99%

Rodina

29.3%

X ←

46.7%

we assigned to the actual result (Draw) 29.3% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Rodina

0.44

1.90

+1.45

1.32

2.31

+1.0

FC Orenburg dominated by xG (2.31 vs 1.90). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Zenit	12	27
2	Dynamo	12	25
3	CSKA Moscow	12	25
4	FC Krasnodar	12	23
5	Spartak Moscow	12	23
6	FC Orenburg	12	16
7	FC Rostov	12	15
8	Krylia Sovetov	12	15
9	Baltika	12	14
10	Dinamo Makhachkala	12	13
11	Rubin	12	12
12	Akron	12	12
13	Lokomotiv	12	11
14	Akhmat	12	11
15	Rodina Moskva	12	9
16	Fakel	12	6

Lineups

Rodina Moskva 4-2-3-1

S. Volkov G 6.82

D. Machado D 6.88

M. Nadé D 6.42

Rodrigo Becão D 6.10

Igor Silva D 6.06

L. Musaev 84' M 6.35

A. Egorychev 75' M 6.22

S. Bakaev 1 ⚽ 60' M 7.19

Y. Reyna 1 👟 M 7.27

A. Maksimenko 60' M 5.94

G. Onugkha F 6.38

Bench

A. Gharibyan 30' F 6.46

A. Gordyushenko M 0.00

A. Meshchaninov D 0.00

D. Tananeev D 0.00

I. Timoshenko 1 ⚽ 15' F 7.88

K. Cissoko F 0.00

K. Ushatov 6' M 6.01

L. Goglichidze D 0.00

M. Abdusalamov 30' F 7.05

R. Fishchenko M 0.00

S. Aydarov G 0.00

S. Bessmertny D 0.00

FC Orenburg 4-2-3-1

B. Ovsyannikov G 6.61

E. Tsenov D 6.43

A. Tataev D 6.28

J. Palacios D 6.08

M. Sivis D 5.69

E. Bolotov 69' M 6.13

R. Kul M 6.51

D. Rybchinskiy 70' M 6.32

D. Puebla 69' M 6.24

J. Thompson 2 ⚽ 89' M 6.66

G. Guzina 89' F 6.36

Bench

A. Degtev G 0.00

A. Kasadzhikov 21' F 6.83

A. Kasimov D 0.00

A. Lukashov 1' D 6.05

Benjamín Bosch F 0.00

D. Khotulev D 0.00

D. Vedernikov 1' D 0.00

E. Nazarenko 20' M 5.76

J. González F 0.00

M. Pykhcheev M 0.00

O. Minatulaev M 0.00

Renat Golybin 21' M 5.91

Best on the pitch

I. Timoshenko

F · Rodina

7.88

1 ⚽

3 shots · 2 pass

Y. Reyna

M · Rodina

7.27

1 👟

· 41 pass

S. Bakaev

M · Rodina

7.19

1 ⚽

1 shots · 13 pass

M. Abdusalamov

F · Rodina

7.05

1 shots · 12 pass

D. Machado

D · Rodina

6.88

· 40 pass

A. Kasadzhikov

F · FC

6.83

· 2 pass

Rodina Moskva — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
S. Volkov	G	90	6.82	—	—	0	45	30%	0	1	—
D. Machado	D	90	6.88	—	—	0	40	34%	3	—	—
M. Nadé	D	90	6.42	—	—	0	58	47%	2	—	—
Rodrigo Becão	D	90	6.10	—	—	0	57	47%	0	1	—
Igor Silva	D	90	6.06	—	—	0	40	28%	1	1	—
L. Musaev	M	84	6.35	—	—	1	32	25%	3	—	—
A. Egorychev	M	75	6.22	—	—	2	30	21%	1	—	—
S. Bakaev	M	60	7.19	1	—	1	13	8%	2	1	—
Y. Reyna	M	90	7.27	—	1	0	41	32%	0	1	—
A. Maksimenko	M	60	5.94	—	—	1	5	3%	1	1	—
G. Onugkha	F	90	6.38	—	—	5	14	8%	0	—	—
A. Gharibyan	F	30	6.46	—	—	1	9	7%	1	—	—
I. Timoshenko	F	15	7.88	1	—	3	2	2%	0	—	—
K. Ushatov	M	6	6.01	—	—	0	7	7%	0	—	—
M. Abdusalamov	F	30	7.05	—	—	1	12	9%	1	—	—

FC Orenburg — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
B. Ovsyannikov	G	90	6.61	—	—	0	21	5%	0	—	—
E. Tsenov	D	90	6.43	—	—	1	22	18%	2	1	—
A. Tataev	D	90	6.28	—	—	1	35	31%	0	1	—
J. Palacios	D	90	6.08	—	—	0	24	16%	3	—	—
M. Sivis	D	90	5.69	—	—	0	31	21%	0	—	—
E. Bolotov	M	69	6.13	—	—	3	35	28%	1	1	—
R. Kul	M	90	6.51	—	—	3	45	39%	2	—	—
D. Rybchinskiy	M	70	6.32	—	—	1	25	18%	2	1	—
D. Puebla	M	69	6.24	—	—	3	11	9%	0	1	—
J. Thompson	M	89	6.66	2	—	3	26	18%	1	1	—
G. Guzina	F	89	6.36	—	—	2	19	12%	0	—	—
A. Kasadzhikov	F	21	6.83	—	—	0	2	2%	0	1	—
A. Lukashov	D	1	6.05	—	—	0	2	0%	0	—	—
D. Vedernikov	D	1	0.00	—	—	0	0	0%	0	—	—
E. Nazarenko	M	20	5.76	—	—	0	5	3%	0	1	—
Renat Golybin	M	21	5.91	—	—	0	1	1%	2	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg?

The final score was Rodina Moskva 2–2 FC Orenburg.

What did the model predict before Rodina Moskva vs FC Orenburg?

The model assigned 23% probability to a Rodina Moskva win, 29% to a draw, and 46% to an FC Orenburg win.