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Rosario Central - Corinthians

Copa Libertadores August 11, 2026 22:00
Rosario Central
#2 · 13 pts
vs
Corinthians
#1 · 11 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
38.52%
Win
Rosario Central
26.01%
Draw
35.47%
Win
Corinthians
1.59
Expected xG
1.63

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.9%)
1X2 Result ✓ 70.6% hit rate (17 picks)
1 39%
X 26%
2 35%
Double Chance
1X 65%
X2 62%
12 74%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 80%
Over 2.5 60%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Rosario Central a 38% win probability, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Corinthians. Expected goals are 1.6 for Rosario Central and 1.6 for Corinthians (total 3.2), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.9% probability.

Season Stats

Rosario Central
4W 1D 1L
Corinthians
3W 2D 1L
Averages per game
1.5
Goals
1.3
0.2
Conceded
0.7
6.2
Shots OT
5.2
5.2
Corners
5.0
57%
Poss.
65%
Percentages
33%
O 1.5
100%
33%
O 2.5
0%
0%
BTTS
33%
83%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ Based on the last 6 matches in Copa Libertadores. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
17%
O 3.5
34%
BTTS
Rosario Central
2W 1D 0L · at home
Corinthians
1W 2D 0L · away
1.7
gls/g
1.3
0.0
Conceded
0.7
67%
Win %
33%
100%
Win or Draw
100%
33%
O 1.5
100%
33%
O 2.5
0%
33%
O 3.5
0%
0%
BTTS
67%
100%
Clean Sht
33%
33%
Failed to Score
0%
last 3
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Rosario Central Corinthians →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.0% 6.5% 5.3% 2.9% 1.2% 0.4%
1 6.4% 10.4% 8.4% 4.6% 1.9% 0.6%
2 5.1% 8.2% 6.7% 3.6% 1.5% 0.5%
3 2.7% 4.4% 3.5% 1.9% 0.8% 0.3%
4 1.1% 1.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1%
5 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% —

Recent form

Rosario Central Rosario Central
L Independiente del Valle 1–0
W UCV 4–0
W Libertad Asuncion 1–0
W UCV 0–3
W Libertad Asuncion 0–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 36%
Corinthians Corinthians
L Platense 0–2
D Penarol 1–1
D Santa Fe 1–1
W Penarol 2–0
W Santa Fe 2–0
Away clean sheet (120 days) 24%

Playing profile

Rosario Central Rosario Central
Attack
30
Defence
64
Form
47
Corinthians Corinthians
Attack
37
Defence
75
Form
59
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Rosario Central vs Corinthians?
The model gives Rosario Central a 38% win probability, 26% for a draw, and 35% for an Corinthians win.
How many goals are expected in Rosario Central vs Corinthians?
Expected goals: Rosario Central 1.6, Corinthians 1.6 (total 3.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Rosario Central vs Corinthians?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.9%.