Liga Profesional
· Apertura - Round of 16
May 10, 2026 20:00
A. Di Maria
(ast. F. Ibarra)
45'+2
G. Cantizano
(ast. E. Coronel)
84'
E. Veron
(ast. G. Cantizano)
90'+2
36'
(ast. M. Gutierrez)
G. Avalos
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Rosario Central a 50% win probability (draw 23%, Independiente 25%). The final result was Rosario Central 3–1 Independiente.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
6
6
Shots on target
4
0.96
Actual xG
0.89
3
Saves
3
61%
Possession
39%
2
Corners
3
17
Tackles
28
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
V. Pizarro
11'
34'
M. Perez Curci
36'
ast. M. Gutierrez ·
G. Avalos⚽
⚽A. Di Maria
· ast. F. Ibarra
45'+2
E. Gimenez
/ G. Cantizano
46'
54'
I. Malcorra
65'
J. Fedorco
/
K. Lomonaco
75'
S. Montiel
/
M. Perez Curci
75'
L. Millan
/
I. Malcorra
V. Pizarro
/ E. Veron
82'
A. Sandez
/ A. Soto
82'
⚽G. Cantizano
· ast. E. Coronel
84'
A. Di Maria
/ A. Veliz
87'
E. Copetti
/ C. Quintana
88'
89'
F. Tempone
/
M. Gutierrez
89'
F. Zabala
/
M. Valenzuela
⚽E. Veron
· ast. G. Cantizano
90'+2
E. Veron
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
50.41%
Rosario ←
23.84%
X
25.74%
Independiente
we assigned to the actual result (Rosario Central)
50.41%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.78
0.96
-0.82
1.18
0.89
-0.29
xG dominance was balanced (0.96 – 0.89).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
Jeremías Ledesma
G
Jeremías Ledesma
G
3
Agustín Sández
82'
D
Agustín Sández
82'
D
13
Gastón Ávila
D
Gastón Ávila
D
46
Ignacio Ovando
D
Ignacio Ovando
D
32
Emanuel Coronel
1 👟
D
Emanuel Coronel
1 👟
D
20
Vicente Pizarro
82'
M
Vicente Pizarro
82'
M
5
Franco Ibarra
1 👟
M
Franco Ibarra
1 👟
M
11
Ángel Di María
1 ⚽
87'
M
Ángel Di María
1 ⚽
87'
M
28
Pol Fernández
M
Pol Fernández
M
16
E. Giménez
45'
M
E. Giménez
45'
M
22
Enzo Copetti
87'
F
Enzo Copetti
87'
F
Bench
9
Alejo Véliz
5'
F
Alejo Véliz
5'
F
33
Alexis Soto
10'
D
Alexis Soto
10'
D
2
Carlos Quintana
5'
D
Carlos Quintana
5'
D
42
Elías Verón
1 ⚽
10'
D
Elías Verón
1 ⚽
10'
D
39
Fabricio Oviedo
F
Fabricio Oviedo
F
15
Facundo Mallo
D
Facundo Mallo
D
31
Federico Navarro
M
Federico Navarro
M
26
Giovanni Cantizano
1 ⚽
1 👟
47'
F
Giovanni Cantizano
1 ⚽
1 👟
47'
F
1
Jorge Broun
G
Jorge Broun
G
47
Luca Raffin
D
Luca Raffin
D
29
Marco Rubén
F
Marco Rubén
F
10
Santiago Segovia
M
Santiago Segovia
M
33
Rodrigo Rey
G
Rodrigo Rey
G
3
Milton Valenzuela
89'
D
Milton Valenzuela
89'
D
36
Sebastián Valdez
D
Sebastián Valdez
D
26
Kevin Lomónaco
65'
D
Kevin Lomónaco
65'
D
4
Santiago Arias
D
Santiago Arias
D
23
Iván Marcone
M
Iván Marcone
M
16
Mateo Perez Curci
75'
M
Mateo Perez Curci
75'
M
19
Matías Abaldo
M
Matías Abaldo
M
40
Ignacio Malcorra
75'
M
Ignacio Malcorra
75'
M
28
Maximiliano Gutiérrez
1 👟
89'
M
Maximiliano Gutiérrez
1 👟
89'
M
9
Gabriel Ávalos
1 ⚽
F
Gabriel Ávalos
1 ⚽
F
Bench
43
Facundo Valdéz
F
Facundo Valdéz
F
22
Facundo Zabala
3'
D
Facundo Zabala
3'
D
11
Federico Mancuello
M
Federico Mancuello
M
34
Felipe Tempone
3'
F
Felipe Tempone
3'
F
1
Joaquín Blázquez
G
Joaquín Blázquez
G
13
Juan Fedorco
27'
D
Juan Fedorco
27'
D
8
Lautaro Millán
17'
M
Lautaro Millán
17'
M
29
Leonardo Godoy
D
Leonardo Godoy
D
10
Luciano Cabral
M
Luciano Cabral
M
6
Nicolás Freire
D
Nicolás Freire
D
5
Rodrigo Fernández
M
Rodrigo Fernández
M
7
Santiago Montiel
17'
F
Santiago Montiel
17'
F
Best on the pitch
Ángel Di María
M · Rosario
8.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 43 pass
Giovanni Cantizano
F · Rosario
8.50
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 17 pass
Gastón Ávila
D · Rosario
7.70
· 53 pass
Emanuel Coronel
D · Rosario
7.50
1 👟
· 49 pass
Gabriel Ávalos
F · Independiente
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 11 pass
Franco Ibarra
M · Rosario
7.20
1 👟
2 shots
· 42 pass
Rosario Central — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremías Ledesma | G | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Agustín Sández | D | 82 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 18% | 5 | — | — |
| Gastón Ávila | D | 92 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 53 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| Ignacio Ovando | D | 92 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 53 | 49% | — | — | — |
| Emanuel Coronel | D | 92 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 49 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| Vicente Pizarro | M | 82 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 49 | 42% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Franco Ibarra | M | 92 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 2 | 42 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| Ángel Di María | M | 87 | 8.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 43 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| Pol Fernández | M | 92 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 47 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Giménez | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Enzo Copetti | F | 87 | 6.00 | — | — | 3 | 22 | 15% | — | — | — |
| Alejo Véliz | F | 5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Alexis Soto | D | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Carlos Quintana | D | 5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Elías Verón | D | 10 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Giovanni Cantizano | F | 47 | 8.50 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
Independiente — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Rey | G | 92 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 15 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Milton Valenzuela | D | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 25% | 8 | — | — |
| Sebastián Valdez | D | 92 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 17% | 4 | — | — |
| Kevin Lomónaco | D | 65 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 25 | 20% | — | — | — |
| Santiago Arias | D | 92 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| Iván Marcone | M | 92 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 39 | 32% | 5 | — | — |
| Mateo Perez Curci | M | 75 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Matías Abaldo | M | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Ignacio Malcorra | M | 75 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 23% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Maximiliano Gutiérrez | M | 89 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 15 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| Gabriel Ávalos | F | 92 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 11 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Facundo Zabala | D | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Tempone | F | 3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Fedorco | D | 27 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| Lautaro Millán | M | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| Santiago Montiel | F | 17 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Rosario Central vs Independiente?
The final score was Rosario Central 3–1 Independiente.
What did the model predict before Rosario Central vs Independiente?
The model assigned 50% probability to a Rosario Central win, 23% to a draw, and 25% to an Independiente win.