Liga Profesional
· Apertura - Round of 16
May 10, 2026 20:00
A. Di Maria
(ast. F. Ibarra)
45'+2
G. Cantizano
(ast. E. Coronel)
84'
E. Veron
(ast. G. Cantizano)
90'+2
36'
(ast. M. Gutierrez)
G. Avalos
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Rosario Central a 50% win probability (draw 23%, Independiente 25%). The final result was Rosario Central 3–1 Independiente.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
6
6
Shots on target
4
0.96
Actual xG
0.89
3
Saves
3
61%
Possession
39%
2
Corners
3
17
Tackles
28
1
🟨 Yellow cards
2
Match Events
V. Pizarro
11'
34'
M. Perez Curci
36'
ast. M. Gutierrez ·
G. Avalos⚽
⚽A. Di Maria
· ast. F. Ibarra
45'+2
E. Gimenez
/ G. Cantizano
46'
54'
I. Malcorra
65'
J. Fedorco
/
K. Lomonaco
75'
S. Montiel
/
M. Perez Curci
75'
L. Millan
/
I. Malcorra
V. Pizarro
/ E. Veron
82'
A. Sandez
/ A. Soto
82'
⚽G. Cantizano
· ast. E. Coronel
84'
A. Di Maria
/ A. Veliz
87'
E. Copetti
/ C. Quintana
88'
89'
F. Tempone
/
M. Gutierrez
89'
F. Zabala
/
M. Valenzuela
⚽E. Veron
· ast. G. Cantizano
90'+2
E. Veron
90'+3
Pre-match prediction
50.41%
Rosario ←
23.84%
X
25.74%
Independiente
we assigned to the actual result (Rosario Central)
50.41%
(medium confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.78
0.96
-0.82
1.18
0.89
-0.29
xG dominance was balanced (0.96 – 0.89).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.
Lineups
23
J. Ledesma
G
J. Ledesma
G
3
A. Sandez
82'
D
A. Sandez
82'
D
13
G. Ávila
D
G. Ávila
D
46
Ignacio Ovando
D
Ignacio Ovando
D
32
E. Coronel
1 👟
D
E. Coronel
1 👟
D
20
V. Pizarro
82'
M
V. Pizarro
82'
M
5
F. Ibarra
1 👟
M
F. Ibarra
1 👟
M
11
Á. Di María
1 ⚽
87'
M
Á. Di María
1 ⚽
87'
M
28
G. Fernández
M
G. Fernández
M
16
E. Giménez
45'
M
E. Giménez
45'
M
22
E. Copetti
87'
F
E. Copetti
87'
F
Bench
33
A. Soto
10'
D
A. Soto
10'
D
9
A. Véliz
5'
F
A. Véliz
5'
F
2
C. Quintana
5'
D
C. Quintana
5'
D
42
E. Veron
1 ⚽
10'
D
E. Veron
1 ⚽
10'
D
39
Fabricio Oviedo
F
Fabricio Oviedo
F
15
F. Mallo
D
F. Mallo
D
31
F. Navarro
M
F. Navarro
M
26
G. Cantizano
1 ⚽
1 👟
47'
F
G. Cantizano
1 ⚽
1 👟
47'
F
1
J. Broun
G
J. Broun
G
10
L. Segovia
M
L. Segovia
M
47
Luca Raffin
D
Luca Raffin
D
29
M. Ruben
F
M. Ruben
F
33
R. Rey
G
R. Rey
G
3
M. Valenzuela
89'
D
M. Valenzuela
89'
D
36
S. Valdez
D
S. Valdez
D
26
K. Lomónaco
65'
D
K. Lomónaco
65'
D
4
S. Arias
D
S. Arias
D
23
I. Marcone
M
I. Marcone
M
16
M. Perez
75'
M
M. Perez
75'
M
19
M. Abaldo
M
M. Abaldo
M
40
V. Malcorra
75'
M
V. Malcorra
75'
M
28
M. Gutiérrez
1 👟
89'
M
M. Gutiérrez
1 👟
89'
M
9
G. Ávalos
1 ⚽
F
G. Ávalos
1 ⚽
F
Bench
43
Facundo Valdéz
F
11
F. Mancuello
M
F. Mancuello
M
34
F. Tempone
3'
F
F. Tempone
3'
F
22
F. Zabala
3'
D
F. Zabala
3'
D
1
J. Blázquez
G
J. Blázquez
G
13
J. Fedorco
27'
D
J. Fedorco
27'
D
8
Lautaro Millán
17'
M
Lautaro Millán
17'
M
10
L. Cabral
M
L. Cabral
M
29
L. Godoy
D
L. Godoy
D
6
Nicolás Freire
D
Nicolás Freire
D
5
R. Fernández
M
R. Fernández
M
7
S. Montiel
17'
F
S. Montiel
17'
F
Best on the pitch
Á. Di María
M · Rosario
8.70
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 43 pass
G. Cantizano
F · Rosario
8.50
1 ⚽ 1 👟
1 shots
· 17 pass
G. Ávila
D · Rosario
7.70
· 53 pass
E. Coronel
D · Rosario
7.50
1 👟
· 49 pass
G. Ávalos
F · Independiente
7.20
1 ⚽
1 shots
· 11 pass
F. Ibarra
M · Rosario
7.20
1 👟
2 shots
· 42 pass
Rosario Central — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Ledesma | G | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 14 | 5% | — | — | — |
| A. Sandez | D | 82 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 22 | 18% | 5 | — | — |
| G. Ávila | D | 92 | 7.70 | — | — | — | 53 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| Ignacio Ovando | D | 92 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 53 | 49% | — | — | — |
| E. Coronel | D | 92 | 7.50 | — | 1 | — | 49 | 39% | 2 | — | — |
| V. Pizarro | M | 82 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 49 | 42% | 1 | 1 | — |
| F. Ibarra | M | 92 | 7.20 | — | 1 | 2 | 42 | 36% | 2 | — | — |
| Á. Di María | M | 87 | 8.70 | 1 | — | 3 | 43 | 30% | 2 | — | — |
| G. Fernández | M | 92 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 47 | 40% | 2 | — | — |
| E. Giménez | M | 45 | 6.50 | — | — | 1 | 16 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| E. Copetti | F | 87 | 6.00 | — | — | 3 | 22 | 15% | — | — | — |
| A. Soto | D | 10 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| A. Véliz | F | 5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| C. Quintana | D | 5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1% | — | — | — |
| E. Veron | D | 10 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 2 | 2% | — | — | — |
| G. Cantizano | F | 47 | 8.50 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 14% | — | — | — |
Independiente — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Rey | G | 92 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 15 | 7% | — | — | — |
| M. Valenzuela | D | 89 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 35 | 25% | 8 | — | — |
| S. Valdez | D | 92 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 20 | 17% | 4 | — | — |
| K. Lomónaco | D | 65 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 25 | 20% | — | — | — |
| S. Arias | D | 92 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 31 | 18% | 2 | — | — |
| I. Marcone | M | 92 | 7.00 | — | — | — | 39 | 32% | 5 | — | — |
| M. Perez | M | 75 | 6.20 | — | — | 1 | 9 | 7% | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Abaldo | M | 92 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 27 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| V. Malcorra | M | 75 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 29 | 23% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. Gutiérrez | M | 89 | 6.70 | — | 1 | 1 | 15 | 11% | 1 | — | — |
| G. Ávalos | F | 92 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 1 | 11 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| F. Tempone | F | 3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — | — | — | — |
| F. Zabala | D | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Fedorco | D | 27 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| Lautaro Millán | M | 17 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 6 | 5% | 1 | — | — |
| S. Montiel | F | 17 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 3 | 1% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Rosario Central vs Independiente?
The final score was Rosario Central 3–1 Independiente.
What did the model predict before Rosario Central vs Independiente?
The model assigned 50% probability to a Rosario Central win, 23% to a draw, and 25% to an Independiente win.