Rwanda - Mali
Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.
November 15, 2026 18:00
⚡ Pre-match analysis
41.06%
Win
Rwanda
31.76%
Draw
27.18%
Win
Mali
1.1
0.69
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–0
(14.25%)
1X2 Result
1
41%
X
32%
2
27%
Double Chance
1X
73%
X2
59%
12
68%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
79%
✓ 77.1% hit rate (48 picks)
Over 2.5
56%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Rwanda a 41% win probability, against 31% for a draw and 27% for Mali. Expected goals are 1.1 for Rwanda and 0.7 for Mali (total 1.8), with a 79% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 14.25% probability.
Season Stats
2W
0D
0L
2W
0D
0L
Averages per game
2.5
Goals
2.0
1.0
Conceded
0.5
3.0
Shots OT
5.0
2.0
Corners
6.0
39%
Poss.
59%
Percentages
100%
O 1.5
50%
100%
O 2.5
50%
100%
BTTS
50%
0%
Clean Sht
50%
ℹ
Based on the last 2 matches in Africa Cup of Nations - Qual.. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Score Matrix
↕ Rwanda
Mali →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8% | 11.6% | 4.0% | 0.9% | 0.2% | — |
| 1 | 18.4% | 12.7% | 4.3% | 1.0% | 0.2% | — |
| 2 | 10.1% | 6.9% | 2.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | — |
| 3 | 3.7% | 2.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% | — | — |
| 4 | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — |
| 5 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% | — | — | — |
Recent form
Playing profile
Rwanda
Attack
37
Defence
77
Form
68
Mali
Attack
31
Defence
75
Form
46
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Group K
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Rwanda
|
2 | 6 |
| 2 |
Mali
|
2 | 6 |
| 3 |
Cape Verde Islands
|
2 | 0 |
| 4 |
Liberia
|
2 | 0 |
What's at stake · Group K
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #1 | #2 |
| → Rwanda | #1 | #2 |
| → Draw | #1 | #2 |
| → Mali | #2 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Rwanda vs Mali?
The model gives Rwanda a 41% win probability, 31% for a draw, and 27% for an Mali win.
How many goals are expected in Rwanda vs Mali?
Expected goals: Rwanda 1.1, Mali 0.7 (total 1.8). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 79%.
What is the most likely score in Rwanda vs Mali?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 14.25%.