USL Championship
· Group Stage
August 16, 2026 05:00
K. Edwards
(ast. J. Timmer)
87'
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Sacramento Republic a 38% win probability (draw 25%, Lexington 35%). The final result was Sacramento Republic 1–0 Lexington. In 1 previous meetings, Sacramento Republic have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Lexington.
Match statistics
Match Events
B. Willey
25'
D. Crisostomo
39'
68'
M. Tschantret
/
B. P. Rodrigues
B. Willey
/ A. Rodriguez
76'
T. Wolff
/ K. Edwards
76'
76'
T. Scott
/
M. Tschantret
81'
J. Hafferty
/
J. Greene
83'
P. Goodrum
T. Leibold
/ R. Spaulding
84'
M. Malango
/ A. Midence
84'
⚽K. Edwards
· ast. J. Timmer
87'
J. Casas
88'
90'+2
T. Scott
J. Casas
/ A. Essel
90'
Pre-match prediction
38.92%
Sacramento ←
25.58%
X
35.5%
Lexington
we assigned to the actual result (Sacramento Republic)
38.92%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
1.28
—
—
1.28
—
—
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Sacramento Republic vs Lexington?
The final score was Sacramento Republic 1–0 Lexington.
What did the model predict before Sacramento Republic vs Lexington?
The model assigned 38% probability to a Sacramento Republic win, 25% to a draw, and 35% to an Lexington win.