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San Diego - Philadelphia Union

MLS September 14, 2026 03:00
San Diego
#9 · 30 pts
vs
Philadelphia Union
#8 · 30 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
32.93%
Win
San Diego
23.2%
Draw
43.87%
Win
Philadelphia Union
1.29
Expected xG
1.62

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–1 (10.8%)
1X2 Result
1 33%
X 23%
2 44%
Double Chance ✓ 88.6% hit rate (35 picks)
1X 56%
X2 67%
12 77%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 78%
Over 2.5 57%
✓ 74.1% hit rate (85 picks)
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Philadelphia Union a 43% win probability, against 23% for a draw and 32% for San Diego. Expected goals are 1.3 for San Diego and 1.6 for Philadelphia Union (total 2.9), with a 78% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 10.8% probability.

Season Stats

San Diego
5W 4D 6L
Philadelphia Union
7W 4D 4L
Averages per game
1.7
Goals
2.1
1.5
Conceded
1.6
4.5
Shots OT
5.7
4.5
Corners
5.8
58%
Poss.
46%
Percentages
73%
O 1.5
87%
60%
O 2.5
60%
60%
BTTS
67%
27%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in MLS. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
55%
O 3.5
80%
BTTS
San Diego
4W 2D 4L · at home
Philadelphia Union
3W 2D 5L · away
2.3
gls/g
2.1
1.7
Conceded
2.4
40%
Win %
30%
60%
Win or Draw
50%
90%
O 1.5
100%
90%
O 2.5
80%
60%
O 3.5
50%
70%
BTTS
90%
30%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
10%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ San Diego Philadelphia Union →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 5.4% 8.8% 7.2% 3.9% 1.6% 0.5%
1 7.0% 11.4% 9.2% 5.0% 2.0% 0.7%
2 4.5% 7.3% 6.0% 3.2% 1.3% 0.4%
3 1.9% 3.2% 2.6% 1.4% 0.6% 0.2%
4 0.6% 1.0% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1%
5 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% — —

Recent form

San Diego San Diego
L San Jose Earthquakes 2–3
L Orlando City SC 1–0
W Los Angeles Galaxy 3–1
W Colorado Rapids 3–0
L Portland Timbers 3–1
Home clean sheet (120 days) 33%
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
W FC Cincinnati 5–0
W CF Montreal 2–0
W New York Red Bulls 1–3
D Austin 1–1
D Inter Miami 2–2
Away clean sheet (120 days) 15%

Playing profile

San Diego San Diego
Attack
42
Defence
63
Form
58
Philadelphia Union Philadelphia Union
Attack
61
Defence
73
Form
69
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Western Conference

# Team G Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 23 46
2 Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 24 43
3 Los Angeles FC Los Angeles FC 25 40
4 FC Dallas FC Dallas 24 40
5 San Jose Earthquakes San Jose Earthquakes 24 38
6 St. Louis City St. Louis City 24 38
7 Colorado Rapids Colorado Rapids 24 32
8 Portland Timbers Portland Timbers 24 32
9 San Diego San Diego 24 30
10 Real Salt Lake Real Salt Lake 23 29
11 Minnesota United FC Minnesota United FC 24 29
12 Los Angeles Galaxy Los Angeles Galaxy 25 29
13 Seattle Sounders Seattle Sounders 22 27
14 Austin Austin 24 26
15 Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 23 15

What's at stake · Western Conference

Top 2 advance to the next round

San Diego Philadelphia Union
Current #9 #1
→ San Diego #7 #1
→ Draw #9 #1
→ Philadelphia Union #9 #1

Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.

Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win San Diego vs Philadelphia Union?
The model gives San Diego a 32% win probability, 23% for a draw, and 43% for an Philadelphia Union win.
How many goals are expected in San Diego vs Philadelphia Union?
Expected goals: San Diego 1.3, Philadelphia Union 1.6 (total 2.9). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 78%.
What is the most likely score in San Diego vs Philadelphia Union?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 10.8%.