San Jose Earthquakes 5–1 Austin — pre-match prediction — MLS — April 23, 2026

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MLS · Regular Season - 9 April 23, 2026 04:30

San Jose Earthquakes

#4 · 45 pts

5 – 1

Final score

Austin

#13 · 31 pts

✓Model correct — prediction San Jose Earthquakes

J. Jasinski (ast. N. Tsakiris) 58'

T. Werner 78' (pen.)

P. Judd (ast. P. Marie) 83'

O. Bouda (ast. P. Marie) 85'

P. Judd (ast. P. Marie) 88'

9' J. Rosales

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave San Jose Earthquakes a 63% win probability (draw 18%, Austin 17%). The final result was San Jose Earthquakes 5–1 Austin. In 1 previous meetings, San Jose Earthquakes have won 0 times, with 1 draws and 0 wins for Austin.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

5.27

Actual xG

0.63

Saves

69%

Possession

31%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

J. Rosales⚽

38'

Z. Kolmanic / Guilherme Biro ↕

E. Edwards

45'+1

R. Roberts

54'

⚽J. Jasinski · ast. N. Tsakiris

58'

66'

C. Ramirez / C. Fodrey ↕

66'

M. Desler / J. Alastuey ↕

J. Jasinski

68'

71'

J. Rosales

↕ J. Jasinski / P. Marie

74'

⚽T. Werner (pen.)

78'

↕ B. Leroux / I. Harkes

82'

⚽P. Judd · ast. P. Marie

83'

⚽O. Bouda · ast. P. Marie

85'

87'

E. Torres / N. Dubersarsky ↕

87'

M. Burton / J. Rosales ↕

⚽P. Judd · ast. P. Marie

88'

↕ T. Werner / N. Fernandez

90'

↕ J. Ricketts / D. Romney

90'

↕ R. Vieira / J. A. Gonzalez Mendoza

90'

Pre-match prediction

63.58%

San ←

18.51%

17.91%

Austin

✓ Correct prediction — we assigned to the actual result (San Jose Earthquakes) 63.58% (high confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

San

4.26

5.27

+1.01

Austin

0.69

0.63

-0.06

San Jose Earthquakes dominated by xG (5.27 vs 0.63). The final result reflects the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates diverged from reality.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	26	50
2	St. Louis City	27	47
3	FC Dallas	27	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	27	45
5	Houston Dynamo	27	44
6	Los Angeles FC	28	41
7	Seattle Sounders	27	38
8	Colorado Rapids	27	36
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	36
10	Portland Timbers	27	32
11	Real Salt Lake	27	32
12	San Diego	27	32
13	Austin	27	31
14	Minnesota United FC	27	29
15	Sporting Kansas City	27	21

Lineups

San Jose Earthquakes 4-2-3-1

Daniel G 6.90

J. Ricketts 89' D 7.90

R. Roberts D 7.20

D 6.30

Jack Jasinski 1 ⚽ 74' D 6.90

R. Vieira 89' M 6.50

Beau Leroux 82' M 7.30

T. Werner 1 ⚽ 89' M 9.20

N. Tsakiris 1 👟 M 7.30

O. Bouda 1 ⚽ M 8.30

P. Judd 2 ⚽ F 8.90

Bench

D. Romney 15' D 6.60

E. Edwards G

I. Harkes 8' M 6.30

J. Gónzalez 15' M 6.70

J. Skahan M

M. Floriani D

N. Buck M

N. Fernandez 15' M 6.60

P. Marie 3 👟 16' D 8.30

Austin 4-4-2

G 7.20

Guilherme Biro 38' D 6.30

J. Bell D 5.20

B. Hines-Ike D 5.60

J. Gallagher D 5.30

J. Rosales 1 ⚽ 87' M 7.30

Nicolas Dubersarsky 87' M 6.70

B. Šabović M 6.50

Jorge Alastuey 66' M 6.30

F. Torres F 7.30

C. Fodrey 66' F 6.60

Bench

C. Ramirez 24' F 6.20

Ilie Sánchez M

M. Desler 24' D 5.90

M. Đorđević D

Best on the pitch

T. Werner

M · San

9.20

1 ⚽

6 shots · 48 pass

P. Judd

F · San

8.90

2 ⚽

7 shots · 9 pass

P. Marie

D · San

8.30

3 👟

1 shots · 12 pass

O. Bouda

M · San

8.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 35 pass

J. Ricketts

D · San

7.90

· 50 pass

J. Rosales

M · Austin

7.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 14 pass

San Jose Earthquakes — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Daniel	G	90	6.90	—	—	—	26	24%	—	—	—
J. Ricketts	D	89	7.90	—	—	—	50	44%	1	—	—
R. Roberts	D	90	7.20	—	—	—	87	83%	—	1	—
	D	90	6.30	—	—	1	95	89%	—	—	—
Jack Jasinski	D	74	6.90	1	—	3	36	33%	1	1	—
R. Vieira	M	89	6.50	—	—	1	43	39%	2	—	—
Beau Leroux	M	82	7.30	—	—	3	31	27%	1	—	—
T. Werner	M	89	9.20	1	—	6	48	34%	1	—	—
N. Tsakiris	M	90	7.30	—	1	3	65	58%	4	—	—
O. Bouda	M	90	8.30	1	—	1	35	30%	4	—	—
P. Judd	F	90	8.90	2	—	7	9	5%	—	—	—
D. Romney	D	15	6.60	—	—	—	10	10%	—	—	—
I. Harkes	M	8	6.30	—	—	1	16	16%	1	—	—
J. Gónzalez	M	15	6.70	—	—	—	13	13%	—	—	—
N. Fernandez	M	15	6.60	—	—	1	9	5%	1	—	—
P. Marie	D	16	8.30	—	3	1	12	11%	—	—	—

Austin — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
	G	90	7.20	—	—	—	38	21%	—	—	—
Guilherme Biro	D	38	6.30	—	—	—	13	11%	1	—	—
J. Bell	D	90	5.20	—	—	—	24	22%	—	—	—
B. Hines-Ike	D	90	5.60	—	—	—	25	22%	—	—	—
J. Gallagher	D	90	5.30	—	—	—	16	10%	—	—	—
J. Rosales	M	87	7.30	1	—	1	14	13%	3	1	—
Nicolas Dubersarsky	M	87	6.70	—	—	—	14	11%	6	—	—
B. Šabović	M	90	6.50	—	—	—	22	15%	1	—	—
Jorge Alastuey	M	66	6.30	—	—	—	13	8%	1	—	—
F. Torres	F	90	7.30	—	—	1	33	27%	2	—	—
C. Fodrey	F	66	6.60	—	—	—	7	4%	—	—	—
C. Ramirez	F	24	6.20	—	—	1	8	4%	—	—	—
M. Desler	D	24	5.90	—	—	—	12	11%	1	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin?

The final score was San Jose Earthquakes 5–1 Austin.

What did the model predict before San Jose Earthquakes vs Austin?

The model assigned 63% probability to a San Jose Earthquakes win, 18% to a draw, and 17% to an Austin win.