San Marino - Finland
Weather at kick-off
☁️
Overcast
28.5°C
💨 20 km/h
🌧️ 50%
· Niigata
⚡ Pre-match analysis
32.9%
Win
San Marino
21.79%
Draw
45.31%
Win
Finland
1.6
1.95
Expected xG
Market probabilities
Most likely result
1–1
(8.96%)
1X2 Result
1
33%
X
22%
2
45%
Double Chance
1X
55%
X2
67%
12
78%
Over / Under
Over 1.5
91%
Over 2.5
82%
The ForzaPitch prediction gives Finland a 45% win probability, against 21% for a draw and 32% for San Marino. Expected goals are 1.6 for San Marino and 2.0 for Finland (total 3.6), with a 90% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–1 at 8.96% probability. In 2 previous meetings, San Marino have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Finland.
Season Stats
2W
1D
1L
0W
0D
6L
Averages per game
1.2
Goals
0.3
0.8
Conceded
2.2
3.5
Shots OT
1.8
4.0
Corners
3.2
48%
Poss.
43%
Percentages
50%
O 1.5
83%
25%
O 2.5
50%
50%
BTTS
33%
25%
Clean Sht
0%
ℹ
Based on the last 6 matches in UEFA Nations League. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).
Venue Form
Goals signal (venue avg)
0%
O 3.5
25%
BTTS
1W
1D
0L
· at home
0W
0D
3L
· away
1.0
gls/g
0.0
0.5
Conceded
2.0
50%
Win %
0%
100%
Win or Draw
0%
50%
O 1.5
67%
0%
O 2.5
33%
0%
O 3.5
0%
50%
BTTS
0%
50%
Clean Sht
0%
0%
Failed to Score
100%
last 3
ℹ
Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.
Score Matrix
↕ San Marino
Finland →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9% | 5.6% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 1.7% | 0.7% |
| 1 | 4.6% | 8.9% | 8.7% | 5.7% | 2.8% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 3.7% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 4.6% | 2.2% | 0.9% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 3.8% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.8% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| 5 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
Recent form
Playing profile
San Marino
Attack
20
Defence
46
Form
1
Finland
Attack
27
Defence
55
Form
31
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model
Head-to-Head
UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 1
| # | Team | G | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Albania
|
0 | 0 |
| 2 |
Finland
|
0 | 0 |
| 3 |
Belarus
|
0 | 0 |
| 4 |
San Marino
|
0 | 0 |
What's at stake · UEFA Nations League , League C, Group 1
Top 2 advance to the next round
| Current | #4 | #2 |
| → San Marino | #1 | #3 |
| → Draw | #2 | #1 |
| → Finland | #4 | #1 |
Projected ranking after this match only. Goal difference tiebreakers not applied.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win San Marino vs Finland?
The model gives San Marino a 32% win probability, 21% for a draw, and 45% for an Finland win.
How many goals are expected in San Marino vs Finland?
Expected goals: San Marino 1.6, Finland 2.0 (total 3.6). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 90%.
What is the most likely score in San Marino vs Finland?
1–1 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 8.96%.