Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 1
April 10, 2026 04:00
E. Olivera
(ast. O. Fernandez)
20'
59'
M. Arezo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Penarol a 34% win probability (draw 31%, Santa Fe 33%). The final result was Santa Fe 1–1 Penarol.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
12
2
Shots on target
6
0.84
Actual xG
1.18
4
Saves
0
55%
Possession
45%
4
Corners
4
12
Tackles
12
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Y. Velasquez
/ M. Lovera
18'
⚽E. Olivera
· ast. O. Fernandez
20'
V. Moreno
28'
M. Lovera
/ A. Zapata
44'
D. Torres
45'+5
A. Mosquera
/ W. Asprilla
46'
D. Torres
/ K. D. Toscano Bassa
46'
51'
L. Ferreira
L. Palacios
52'
J. Torres
54'
59'
M. Arezo⚽
62'
E. Darias
/
N. Fernandez
70'
G. Togni
/
L. Angulo
70'
F. Batista
/
M. Arezo
77'
L. Umpierrez
/
M. Lemos
O. Fernandez
/ F. Fagundez
89'
Pre-match prediction
33.56%
Santa
31.82%
X ←
34.62%
Penarol
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
31.82%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.89
0.84
-0.05
1.07
1.18
+0.11
Penarol dominated by xG (1.18 vs 0.84).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
Andrés Mosquera
45'
G
Andrés Mosquera
45'
G
32
Christian Mafla
D
Christian Mafla
D
3
Victor Moreno
D
Victor Moreno
D
18
Emanuel Olivera
1 ⚽
D
13
H. Palacios
D
7
Jhojan Torres
M
Jhojan Torres
M
16
Daniel Torres
45'
M
Daniel Torres
45'
M
8
Omar Fernández
1 👟
89'
M
Omar Fernández
1 👟
89'
M
20
Y. Velasquez
18'
M
14
Luis Angel Palacios
M
Luis Angel Palacios
M
11
Hugo Rodallega
F
Hugo Rodallega
F
Bench
10
Alexis Zapata
46'
M
Alexis Zapata
46'
M
9
Franco Fagúndez
8'
F
Franco Fagúndez
8'
F
15
Ivan Scarpeta
D
Ivan Scarpeta
D
6
Kilian Toscano
45'
F
Kilian Toscano
45'
F
17
M. Lovera
26'
F
19
Nahuel Bustos
F
Nahuel Bustos
F
1
G
15
Maximiliano Olivera
D
6
L. Ferreira
D
L. Ferreira
D
3
Mauricio Lemos
77'
D
2
Franco Escobar
D
5
E. Remedi
M
21
Jesús Trindade
M
8
Nicolás Fernández
62'
M
10
Leonardo Fernández
M
77
L. Angulo
70'
M
19
M. Arezo
1 ⚽
70'
F
M. Arezo
1 ⚽
70'
F
Bench
26
A. Madruga
D
13
E. Darias
28'
M
9
Facundo Batista
20'
F
80
Franco González
M
23
Gastón Togni
20'
F
14
Kevin Rodríguez
D
32
Leandro Umpierrez
13'
M
25
Matías González
D
Best on the pitch
Leonardo Fernández
M · Penarol
7.90
1 shots
· 45 pass
Emanuel Olivera
D · Santa
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 41 pass
L. Ferreira
D · Penarol
7.50
1 shots
· 31 pass
M. Arezo
F · Penarol
7.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 11 pass
Victor Moreno
D · Santa
7.00
1 shots
· 48 pass
Andrés Mosquera
G · Santa
6.90
· 12 pass
Santa Fe — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrés Mosquera | G | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 7% | — | — | — |
| Christian Mafla | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| Victor Moreno | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 40% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Emanuel Olivera | D | 90 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 41 | 30% | — | — | — |
| H. Palacios | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Jhojan Torres | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 39% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Daniel Torres | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Omar Fernández | M | 89 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 26 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Y. Velasquez | M | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| Luis Angel Palacios | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 28 | 19% | 1 | 1 | — |
| Hugo Rodallega | F | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 5% | — | — | — |
| Alexis Zapata | M | 46 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 21% | — | — | — |
| Franco Fagúndez | F | 8 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| Kilian Toscano | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Lovera | F | 26 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
Penarol — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | — | — | — | |
| Maximiliano Olivera | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Ferreira | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 20% | 2 | 1 | — |
| Mauricio Lemos | D | 77 | 6.50 | — | — | 4 | 27 | 19% | — | — | — |
| Franco Escobar | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 13% | — | — | — |
| E. Remedi | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 22% | — | — | — |
| Jesús Trindade | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 33% | 3 | — | — |
| Nicolás Fernández | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Leonardo Fernández | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 34% | — | — | — |
| L. Angulo | M | 70 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Arezo | F | 70 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| E. Darias | M | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| Facundo Batista | F | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Gastón Togni | F | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| Leandro Umpierrez | M | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Santa Fe vs Penarol?
The final score was Santa Fe 1–1 Penarol.
What did the model predict before Santa Fe vs Penarol?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Santa Fe win, 31% to a draw, and 34% to an Penarol win.