Copa Libertadores
· Group Stage - 1
April 10, 2026 04:00
E. Olivera
(ast. O. Fernandez)
20'
59'
M. Arezo
The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Penarol a 34% win probability (draw 31%, Santa Fe 33%). The final result was Santa Fe 1–1 Penarol. In 1 previous meetings, Santa Fe have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 0 wins for Penarol.
Match statistics
13
Total shots
12
2
Shots on target
6
0.84
Actual xG
1.18
4
Saves
0
55%
Possession
45%
4
Corners
4
12
Tackles
12
4
🟨 Yellow cards
1
Match Events
Y. Velasquez
/ M. Lovera
18'
⚽E. Olivera
· ast. O. Fernandez
20'
V. Moreno
28'
M. Lovera
/ A. Zapata
44'
D. Torres
45'+5
A. Mosquera
/ W. Asprilla
46'
D. Torres
/ K. D. Toscano Bassa
46'
51'
L. Ferreira
L. Palacios
52'
J. Torres
54'
59'
M. Arezo⚽
62'
E. Darias
/
N. Fernandez
70'
G. Togni
/
L. Angulo
70'
F. Batista
/
M. Arezo
77'
L. Umpierrez
/
M. Lemos
O. Fernandez
/ F. Fagundez
89'
Pre-match prediction
33.56%
Santa
31.82%
X ←
34.62%
Penarol
we assigned to the actual result (Draw)
31.82%
(low confidence)
Expected vs actual xG
Exp.
Actual
Δ
0.89
0.84
-0.05
1.07
1.18
+0.11
Penarol dominated by xG (1.18 vs 0.84).
The final result does not reflect the playing dominance.
The model's xG estimates were accurate.
Lineups
1
A. Mosquera
45'
G
A. Mosquera
45'
G
32
C. Mafla
D
C. Mafla
D
3
V. Moreno
D
V. Moreno
D
18
E. Olivera
1 ⚽
D
E. Olivera
1 ⚽
D
13
H. Palacios
D
H. Palacios
D
7
Jhojan Torres
M
Jhojan Torres
M
16
D. Torres
45'
M
D. Torres
45'
M
8
O. Fernández
1 👟
89'
M
O. Fernández
1 👟
89'
M
20
Yilmar Velázquez
18'
M
Yilmar Velázquez
18'
M
14
L. Palacios
M
L. Palacios
M
11
H. Rodallega
F
H. Rodallega
F
Bench
10
A. Zapata
46'
M
A. Zapata
46'
M
9
F. Fagúndez
8'
F
F. Fagúndez
8'
F
15
I. Scarpeta
D
I. Scarpeta
D
6
K. Toscano
45'
F
K. Toscano
45'
F
17
M. Lovera
26'
F
M. Lovera
26'
F
19
N. Bustos
F
N. Bustos
F
1
G
15
M. Olivera
D
6
L. Ferreira
D
3
M. Lemos
77'
D
2
F. Escobar
D
F. Escobar
D
5
E. Remedi
M
21
J. Trindade
M
8
N. Fernández
62'
M
10
Leonardo Fernández
M
77
L. Angulo
70'
M
19
M. Arezo
1 ⚽
70'
F
Bench
26
A. Madruga
D
13
E. Darias
28'
M
9
F. Batista
20'
F
80
F. González
M
23
Gastón Togni
20'
F
Gastón Togni
20'
F
14
Kevin Rodríguez
D
32
L. Umpiérrez
13'
M
25
Matías González
D
Best on the pitch
Leonardo Fernández
M · Penarol
7.90
1 shots
· 45 pass
E. Olivera
D · Santa
7.70
1 ⚽
2 shots
· 41 pass
L. Ferreira
D · Penarol
7.50
1 shots
· 31 pass
M. Arezo
F · Penarol
7.20
1 ⚽
3 shots
· 11 pass
V. Moreno
D · Santa
7.00
1 shots
· 48 pass
A. Mosquera
G · Santa
6.90
· 12 pass
Santa Fe — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Mosquera | G | 45 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 12 | 7% | — | — | — |
| C. Mafla | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 2 | 29 | 21% | 2 | — | — |
| V. Moreno | D | 90 | 7.00 | — | — | 1 | 48 | 40% | 2 | 1 | — |
| E. Olivera | D | 90 | 7.70 | 1 | — | 2 | 41 | 30% | — | — | — |
| H. Palacios | D | 90 | 6.60 | — | — | 1 | 30 | 20% | 2 | — | — |
| Jhojan Torres | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 46 | 39% | 1 | 1 | — |
| D. Torres | M | 45 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 23 | 21% | 1 | 1 | — |
| O. Fernández | M | 89 | 6.90 | — | 1 | 1 | 26 | 20% | 1 | — | — |
| Yilmar Velázquez | M | 18 | 6.70 | — | — | — | 8 | 6% | — | — | — |
| L. Palacios | M | 90 | 6.20 | — | — | 3 | 28 | 19% | 1 | 1 | — |
| H. Rodallega | F | 90 | 6.00 | — | — | 1 | 15 | 5% | — | — | — |
| A. Zapata | M | 46 | 6.20 | — | — | — | 26 | 21% | — | — | — |
| F. Fagúndez | F | 8 | 6.60 | — | — | — | 3 | 3% | — | — | — |
| K. Toscano | F | 45 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 17 | 13% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Lovera | F | 26 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 4 | 2% | — | — | — |
Penarol — Player statistics
| Team | Pos | Min | Rating | ⚽ | 👟 | Shots | Pass | Acc% | Tck | YC | RC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | 90 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 20 | 13% | — | — | — | |
| M. Olivera | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 22 | 16% | 2 | — | — |
| L. Ferreira | D | 90 | 7.50 | — | — | 1 | 31 | 20% | 2 | 1 | — |
| M. Lemos | D | 77 | 6.50 | — | — | 4 | 27 | 19% | — | — | — |
| F. Escobar | D | 90 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 23 | 13% | — | — | — |
| E. Remedi | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | — | 33 | 22% | — | — | — |
| J. Trindade | M | 90 | 6.90 | — | — | 1 | 37 | 33% | 3 | — | — |
| N. Fernández | M | 62 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 20 | 19% | 1 | — | — |
| Leonardo Fernández | M | 90 | 7.90 | — | — | 1 | 45 | 34% | — | — | — |
| L. Angulo | M | 70 | 6.30 | — | — | 1 | 13 | 10% | 2 | — | — |
| M. Arezo | F | 70 | 7.20 | 1 | — | 3 | 11 | 8% | — | — | — |
| E. Darias | M | 28 | 6.70 | — | — | 1 | 6 | 5% | 2 | — | — |
| F. Batista | F | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 2 | 1% | — | — | — |
| Gastón Togni | F | 20 | 6.50 | — | — | — | 3 | 2% | — | — | — |
| L. Umpiérrez | M | 13 | 6.30 | — | — | — | 5 | 4% | — | — | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
What was the final score of Santa Fe vs Penarol?
The final score was Santa Fe 1–1 Penarol.
What did the model predict before Santa Fe vs Penarol?
The model assigned 33% probability to a Santa Fe win, 31% to a draw, and 34% to an Penarol win.