Atletico-MG 4–2 Santos — pre-match prediction — Copa Sudamericana — September 17, 2026

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Copa Sudamericana · Quarter-finals September 17, 2026 00:00

Atletico-MG

#1 · 10 pts

4 – 2

Final score

pens 3–1

Santos

#2 · 7 pts

Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte (ast. Frederico Rodrigues de Paula Santos) 1'

Reinier Jesus Carvalho (ast. Frederico Rodrigues de Paula Santos) 20'

Reinier Jesus Carvalho (ast. Renan Lodi) 41'

Tomás Cuello (ast. Kevin Castaño) 90'+2

Gustavo Scarpa 91' (pen.)

Igor Gomes 93' (pen.)

Thiago Borbas 96' (pen.)

(og) 28' Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović

72' (ast. Arthur Melo) Gabriel Barbosa

(pen.) 94' Gabriel Bontempo

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave Atletico-MG a 44% win probability (draw 27%, Santos 28%). The final result was Atletico-MG 4–2 Santos. In 3 previous meetings, Atletico-MG have won 1 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Santos.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

Saves

49%

Possession

51%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

Match Events

⚽Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte · ast. Frederico Rodrigues de Paula Santos

⚽Reinier Jesus Carvalho · ast. Frederico Rodrigues de Paula Santos

20'

28'

(og) Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović⚽

38'

Rodinei

⚽Reinier Jesus Carvalho · ast. Renan Lodi

41'

45'+4

Luan Peres

45'

Arthur Melo / Gustavo Henrique ↕

45'

Lucas Veríssimo / Luan Peres ↕

↕ Reinier Jesus Carvalho / Mateo Cassierra

45'

↕ Bernard Anício Caldeira Duarte / Igor Gomes

71'

↕ Maycon de Andrade Barberan / Natanael Moreira Milouski

71'

72'

ast. Arthur Melo · Gabriel Barbosa⚽

81'

Christian Oliva / Benjamín Rollheiser ↕

↕ Alan Franco / Gustavo Scarpa

81'

↕ Lyanco Evangelista Silveira Neves Vojnović / Thiago Borbas

81'

86'

João Ananias / Rony ↕

⚽Tomás Cuello · ast. Kevin Castaño

90'+2

90'+5

Igor Vinicius / Rodinei ↕

91'

(missed pen.) Gabriel Barbosa⚽

⚽Gustavo Scarpa (pen.)

91'

92'

(missed pen.) João Schmidt⚽

⚽Igor Gomes (pen.)

93'

94'

(pen.) Gabriel Bontempo⚽

⚽Frederico Rodrigues de Paula Santos (missed pen.)

95'

96'

(missed pen.) Arthur Melo⚽

⚽Thiago Borbas (pen.)

96'

Pre-match prediction

44.22%

Atletico-MG ←

27.1%

28.68%

Santos

we assigned to the actual result (Atletico-MG) 44.22% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

Atletico-MG

1.26

—

Santos

1.07

—

Lineups

Atletico-MG 4-2-3-1

Gabriel Delfim G 6.29

Renan Lodi 1 👟 D 7.19

Lyanco 1 ⚽ 81' D 5.10

Vitão D 6.12

Alan Franco 81' D 6.85

Kevin Castaño 1 👟 M 6.88

Maycon 71' M 6.38

Bernard 1 ⚽ 71' M 7.47

Fred 2 👟 M 7.95

T. Cuello 1 ⚽ M 7.46

Reinier 2 ⚽ 45' F 9.04

Bench

Alan Minda F 0.00

Alexsander M 0.00

Gustavo Scarpa 1 ⚽ 9' M 5.98

Igor Gomes 1 ⚽ 19' M 5.95

Kauã Pascini D 0.00

Léo Duarte D 0.00

Mamady Cissé M 0.00

M. Cassierra 45' F 6.59

Natanael 19' D 6.10

Robert Alves G 0.00

T. Borbas 1 ⚽ 9' F 6.40

Vitor Hugo D 0.00

Santos 4-2-3-1

Gabriel Brazão G 5.72

G. Escobar D 5.64

Luan Peres 45' D 5.50

Willian Arão D 6.31

Rodinei D 5.53

João Schmidt M 6.68

Gustavo Henrique Pereira 45' M 5.59

Rony 86' M 6.07

B. Rollheiser 81' M 6.50

Gabriel Bontempo 1 ⚽ M 6.22

Gabriel Barbosa 1 ⚽ F 8.20

Bench

Arthur 1 👟 45' M 6.66

C. Oliva 9' M 5.94

D. Fernandes F 0.00

G. Caballero F 0.00

Igor Vinicius 1' D 5.70

João Paulo G 0.00

João Paulo Ananias 4' D 5.83

Lima M 0.00

Lucas Veríssimo 45' D 6.23

M. Terceros M 0.00

S. Pierri M 0.00

Thaciano M 0.00

Best on the pitch

Reinier

F · Atletico-MG

9.04

2 ⚽

2 shots · 22 pass

Gabriel Barbosa

F · Santos

8.20

1 ⚽

6 shots · 24 pass

Fred

M · Atletico-MG

7.95

2 👟

1 shots · 64 pass

Bernard

M · Atletico-MG

7.47

1 ⚽

1 shots · 47 pass

T. Cuello

M · Atletico-MG

7.46

1 ⚽

2 shots · 28 pass

Renan Lodi

D · Atletico-MG

7.19

1 👟

3 shots · 24 pass

Atletico-MG — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Gabriel Delfim	G	90	6.29	—	—	0	24	17%	0	—	—
Renan Lodi	D	90	7.19	—	1	3	24	22%	2	—	—
Lyanco	D	81	5.10	1	—	1	38	32%	0	—	—
Vitão	D	90	6.12	—	—	0	47	38%	1	—	—
Alan Franco	D	81	6.85	—	—	1	24	21%	1	—	—
Kevin Castaño	M	90	6.88	—	1	0	82	68%	1	—	—
Maycon	M	71	6.38	—	—	0	33	30%	1	—	—
Bernard	M	71	7.47	1	—	1	47	41%	0	—	—
Fred	M	90	7.95	—	2	1	64	51%	3	—	—
T. Cuello	M	90	7.46	1	—	2	28	23%	2	—	—
Reinier	F	45	9.04	2	—	2	22	17%	0	—	—
Gustavo Scarpa	M	9	5.98	1	—	0	8	6%	0	—	—
Igor Gomes	M	19	5.95	1	—	0	12	10%	0	—	—
M. Cassierra	F	45	6.59	—	—	0	11	9%	1	—	—
Natanael	D	19	6.10	—	—	1	12	9%	0	—	—
T. Borbas	F	9	6.40	1	—	0	2	2%	0	—	—

Santos — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Gabriel Brazão	G	90	5.72	—	—	0	18	15%	0	—	—
G. Escobar	D	90	5.64	—	—	1	45	34%	4	—	—
Luan Peres	D	45	5.50	—	—	0	32	26%	3	1	—
Willian Arão	D	90	6.31	—	—	0	47	45%	1	—	—
Rodinei	D	95	5.53	—	—	0	40	33%	1	1	—
João Schmidt	M	90	6.68	—	—	0	70	64%	4	—	—
Gustavo Henrique Pereira	M	45	5.59	—	—	0	17	13%	0	—	—
Rony	M	86	6.07	—	—	4	26	18%	0	—	—
B. Rollheiser	M	81	6.50	—	—	4	59	47%	0	—	—
Gabriel Bontempo	M	90	6.22	1	—	1	44	36%	2	—	—
Gabriel Barbosa	F	90	8.20	1	—	6	24	19%	0	—	—
Arthur	M	45	6.66	—	1	1	43	40%	0	—	—
C. Oliva	M	9	5.94	—	—	0	6	3%	1	—	—
Igor Vinicius	D	1	5.70	—	—	0	0	0%	0	—	—
João Paulo Ananias	D	4	5.83	—	—	0	4	3%	1	—	—
Lucas Veríssimo	D	45	6.23	—	—	1	29	25%	0	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of Atletico-MG vs Santos?

The final score was Atletico-MG 4–2 Santos.

What did the model predict before Atletico-MG vs Santos?

The model assigned 44% probability to a Atletico-MG win, 27% to a draw, and 28% to an Santos win.