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Atletico-MG - Santos

Copa Sudamericana September 17, 2026 00:00
Atletico-MG
#1 · 10 pts
vs
Santos
#2 · 7 pts
⚡ Pre-match analysis
40.32%
Win
Atletico-MG
29.47%
Draw
30.22%
Win
Santos
1.18
Expected xG
0.98

Market probabilities

Most likely result 1–0 (13.42%)
1X2 Result
1 40%
X 29%
2 30%
Double Chance
1X 70%
X2 60%
12 71%
Over / Under
Over 1.5 65%
Over 2.5 38%
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The ForzaPitch prediction gives Atletico-MG a 40% win probability, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Santos. Expected goals are 1.2 for Atletico-MG and 1.0 for Santos (total 2.2), with a 64% probability of Over 1.5 goals. The most likely scoreline is 1–0 at 13.42% probability. In 2 previous meetings, Atletico-MG have won 0 times, with 0 draws and 2 wins for Santos.

Season Stats

Atletico-MG
7W 5D 3L
Santos
5W 5D 1L
Averages per game
1.3
Goals
1.8
0.9
Conceded
0.9
3.8
Shots OT
4.8
3.3
Corners
4.4
51%
Poss.
58%
Percentages
60%
O 1.5
82%
40%
O 2.5
45%
47%
BTTS
64%
40%
Clean Sht
27%
ℹ Based on the last 15 matches in Copa Sudamericana. Bars use fixed scales (goals max 3.5, percentages 0–100%).

Venue Form

Goals signal (venue avg)
25%
O 3.5
60%
BTTS
Atletico-MG
7W 2D 1L · at home
Santos
1W 3D 1L · away
1.7
gls/g
1.2
0.8
Conceded
0.8
70%
Win %
20%
90%
Win or Draw
80%
70%
O 1.5
60%
50%
O 2.5
20%
30%
O 3.5
20%
60%
BTTS
60%
30%
Clean Sht
20%
10%
Failed to Score
40%
last 10
ℹ Home team's record in home matches only · Away team's record in away matches only.

Score Matrix

↕ Atletico-MG Santos →
0 1 2 3 4 5
0 11.5% 11.3% 5.6% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1%
1 13.6% 13.3% 6.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1%
2 8.0% 7.9% 3.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
3 3.1% 3.1% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% —
4 0.9% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% — —
5 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% — — —

Recent form

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
L Santos 2–0
D RB Bragantino 2–2
W RB Bragantino 0–1
W Puerto Cabello 1–0
W Cienciano 2–0
Home clean sheet (120 days) 40%
Santos Santos
W Atletico-MG 2–0
D Macara 0–0
W Macara 2–1
W UCV 4–2
W UCV 1–4
Away clean sheet (120 days) 37%

Playing profile

Atletico-MG Atletico-MG
Attack
33
Defence
66
Form
58
Santos Santos
Attack
35
Defence
71
Form
62
Indices on a 0–100 scale calculated by the model

Head-to-Head

0
Atletico-MG
0
Draw
2
Santos
10 Sep 2026 Copa Sudamericana 0–2
12 Apr 2026 Brasileirão Série A 0–1
Frequently Asked Questions
Who will win Atletico-MG vs Santos?
The model gives Atletico-MG a 40% win probability, 29% for a draw, and 30% for an Santos win.
How many goals are expected in Atletico-MG vs Santos?
Expected goals: Atletico-MG 1.2, Santos 1.0 (total 2.2). Probability of over 1.5 goals: 64%.
What is the most likely score in Atletico-MG vs Santos?
1–0 is the most probable final score, with an estimated probability of 13.42%.