São Bernardo 3–4 Ceara — pre-match prediction — Brasileirão Série B — July 26, 2026

← Brasileirão Série B

Brasileirão Série B · Regular Season - 20 July 26, 2026 21:00

São Bernardo

#12 · 27 pts

3 – 4

Final score

Ceara

#16 · 22 pts

Helder Maciel (ast. Mario Sergio) 23'

Hugo Sanches 59'

Pedrinho (ast. Mario Sergio) 81'

47' (ast. Giulio) M. N. Ferreira Berrondo

62' (ast. M. N. Ferreira Berrondo) Vina

74' (ast. Giulio) Joao Gabriel

90'+1 Enzo Lodovico

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The ForzaPitch pre-match prediction gave São Bernardo a 49% win probability (draw 32%, Ceara 18%). The final result was São Bernardo 3–4 Ceara. In 2 previous meetings, São Bernardo have won 0 times, with 2 draws and 0 wins for Ceara.

Match statistics

Total shots

Shots on target

1.45

Actual xG

0.96

Saves

54%

Possession

46%

Corners

Tackles

🟨 Yellow cards

🟥 Red cards

Match Events

⚽Helder Maciel · ast. Mario Sergio

23'

31'

Julio Cesar

46'

Giulio / Thalisson ↕

46'

Lucca / R. Lopez ↕

↕ Lucas Rian / Hugo Sanches

46'

↕ D. Davi / Echapora

46'

47'

ast. Giulio · M. N. Ferreira Berrondo⚽

55'

Eder

↕ Rodrigo Ferreira / Pedrinho

56'

↕ Foguinho / Hyoran

56'

⚽Hugo Sanches

59'

62'

ast. M. N. Ferreira Berrondo · Vina⚽

66'

Richardson / Giovanni Pavani ↕

Felipe Garcia

68'

74'

ast. Giulio · Joao Gabriel⚽

⚽Pedrinho · ast. Mario Sergio

81'

↕ Lucas Lima / Marcao Silva

84'

85'

Melk / Vina ↕

89'

Enzo Lodovico / M. N. Ferreira Berrondo ↕

90'+1

Enzo Lodovico⚽

Lucas Rian

90'+12

Pre-match prediction

49.74%

São

32.06%

18.2%

Ceara ←

we assigned to the actual result (Ceara) 18.2% (low confidence)

Expected vs actual xG

Exp.

Actual

São

1.10

1.45

+0.35

Ceara

0.49

0.96

+0.47

São Bernardo dominated by xG (1.45 vs 0.96). The final result does not reflect the playing dominance. The model's xG estimates were accurate.

League Table

#	Team	G	Pts
1	Criciuma	20	40
2	Juventude	20	35
3	Operario-PR	20	35
4	Fortaleza EC	20	34
5	Vila Nova	20	34
6	Novorizontino	20	33
7	Atletico Goianiense	20	31
8	CRB	20	29
9	Goias	20	29
10	Sport Recife	20	29
11	Athletic Club	20	28
12	São Bernardo	20	27
13	Nautico Recife	20	25
14	Cuiaba	20	25
15	Botafogo SP	20	24
16	Ceara	20	22
17	Londrina	20	20
18	Avai	20	20
19	America Mineiro	20	11
20	Ponte Preta	20	9

Lineups

São Bernardo 4-3-3

Alex Alves G 6.20

Mário Sergio 2 👟 D 6.90

Jemerson D 5.90

Helder Maciel 1 ⚽ D 7.30

Rodrigo Ferreira 56' D 6.30

Eduardo M 7.30

Foguinho 56' M 6.60

Lucas Lima 84' M 6.60

Daniel Davi Simão Roque 45' F 6.20

Felipe Garcia F 6.90

Lucas Rian 45' F 6.30

Bench

Augusto D

Daniel Amorim F

Echaporã 59' F 6.90

Fabrício Daniel F

Hugo 1 ⚽ 59' D 6.70

Hyoran 48' M 6.30

Júnior Oliveira G

Lucas Reis F

Luizão D

Marcão Silva 20' M 6.50

Pará D

Pedrinho 1 ⚽ 48' F 7.90

Ceara 4-4-1-1

Richard G 5.30

Sávio D 6.30

Éder D 5.90

Thalisson Gabriel 45' D 6.20

Júlio César D 6.60

Nicolás Ferreira 1 ⚽ 1 👟 89' M 7.60

João Gabriel 1 ⚽ M 8.30

Giovanni Pavani 66' M 6.30

Bryan Borges M 7.50

Vina 1 ⚽ 85' F 7.60

Renzo López 45' F 6.70

Bench

Enzo Valentim Lodovico 1 ⚽ 15' F 7.60

Gabriel Silva Rocha M

Giulio 2 👟 59' F 7.20

José Wilson Neto M

Juan Alano F

Lucas Mugni M

Lucca 59' F 6.90

Matheus Araújo M

Matheus Nogueira G

Melk 19' M 6.90

Richardson 38' M 6.90

Sanchez D

Best on the pitch

João Gabriel

M · Ceara

8.30

1 ⚽

1 shots · 33 pass

Pedrinho

F · São

7.90

1 ⚽

1 shots · 6 pass

Enzo Valentim Lodovico

F · Ceara

7.60

1 ⚽

2 shots

Vina

F · Ceara

7.60

1 ⚽

1 shots · 33 pass

Nicolás Ferreira

M · Ceara

7.60

1 ⚽ 1 👟

2 shots · 17 pass

Bryan Borges

M · Ceara

7.50

· 33 pass

São Bernardo — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Alex Alves	G	104	6.20	—	—	—	26	24%	—	—	—
Mário Sergio	D	104	6.90	—	2	1	37	34%	1	—	—
Jemerson	D	104	5.90	—	—	1	46	43%	—	—	—
Helder Maciel	D	104	7.30	1	—	1	65	53%	—	—	—
Rodrigo Ferreira	D	56	6.30	—	—	—	21	15%	—	—	—
Eduardo	M	104	7.30	—	—	—	56	48%	1	—	—
Foguinho	M	56	6.60	—	—	1	23	17%	—	—	—
Lucas Lima	M	84	6.60	—	—	2	40	35%	3	—	—
Daniel Davi Simão Roque	F	45	6.20	—	—	—	6	6%	1	—	—
Felipe Garcia	F	104	6.90	—	—	1	26	20%	1	1	—
Lucas Rian	F	45	6.30	—	—	1	18	15%	—	—	1
Echaporã	F	59	6.90	—	—	—	8	8%	4	—	—
Hugo	D	59	6.70	1	—	1	20	13%	—	—	—
Hyoran	M	48	6.30	—	—	—	7	7%	—	—	—
Marcão Silva	M	20	6.50	—	—	—	2	2%	—	—	—
Pedrinho	F	48	7.90	1	—	1	6	5%	—	—	—

Ceara — Player statistics

Team	Pos	Min	Rating	⚽	👟	Shots	Pass	Acc%	Tck	YC	RC
Richard	G	104	5.30	—	—	—	17	11%	—	—	—
Sávio	D	104	6.30	—	—	—	36	27%	2	—	—
Éder	D	104	5.90	—	—	1	35	29%	2	1	—
Thalisson Gabriel	D	45	6.20	—	—	1	29	27%	1	—	—
Júlio César	D	104	6.60	—	—	—	40	33%	4	1	—
Nicolás Ferreira	M	89	7.60	1	1	2	17	15%	1	—	—
João Gabriel	M	104	8.30	1	—	1	33	30%	5	—	—
Giovanni Pavani	M	66	6.30	—	—	1	41	33%	2	—	—
Bryan Borges	M	104	7.50	—	—	—	33	28%	7	—	—
Vina	F	85	7.60	1	—	1	33	25%	2	—	—
Renzo López	F	45	6.70	—	—	1	10	4%	—	—	—
Enzo Valentim Lodovico	F	15	7.60	1	—	2	—	—	—	—	—
Giulio	F	59	7.20	—	2	3	11	6%	—	—	—
Lucca	F	59	6.90	—	—	1	10	8%	—	—	—
Melk	M	19	6.90	—	—	—	6	5%	—	—	—
Richardson	M	38	6.90	—	—	—	6	6%	2	—	—

Frequently Asked Questions

What was the final score of São Bernardo vs Ceara?

The final score was São Bernardo 3–4 Ceara.

What did the model predict before São Bernardo vs Ceara?

The model assigned 49% probability to a São Bernardo win, 32% to a draw, and 18% to an Ceara win.